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 Originally Posted by Thunder
Hopefully you can see why you need to move beyond that as quickly as possible. You need to think of a realistic range of hands that villian could be holding.
This is something I have raised before. It's all very well telling noobs they have to get to this point quickly but that's easier said than done. It's akin to a music teacher (myself included) explaining improvisation, or playing outside the key, by saying "you just feel where to go and what notes to play. Let your fingers guide you". They know what they have to do but it's completely alien to them. And as it's very abstract and subjective, there's no walkthrough guide available.
I'd also think it's harder in SNG/ MTT than cash - where you can sit and study your opponenent over a prolonged period of time.
I dont think so, I think most people will understand what we mean, but I'll try to explain a bit further just incase.
Lets say you raise PF with AKo from the button, get one caller in the BB and the flop is a K high two tone board. BB checks, you bet, he calls. Turn brings a 3-flush board and BB leads out. Now whats his range? That line does indicate a FD on the flop, so we weight it fairly heavily there. Theres also some possibility of something like a slowplayed set thats betting "to see where he is", or a weaker Kx doing the same, and perhaps semi-bluffing us (we may fold better Ks), likewise it could be someone who has now picked up a backdoor FD and is "setting the price" to draw to the river. What we do here isnt the point, the point is that most people with lvl 1a thinking go "crap, he hit his flush", and often they'll be right, but villians hand isnt made up only of sooted cards that just hit their flush, there are more hands that could play the same way in that situation.
Now whilst I say it doesnt matter, most people would be right to make a fold there. So lets change the scenario a bit. This time the turn brings a blank (a different suit from anything out there and low card not creating any straight opportunities). BB checks, and we check behind for pot control. Now its the river that completes the FD and BB leads for 1/4 pot, giving us 1:5 pot odds. Now his range is basically the same, heavily weighted towards made flushes, HOWEVER a lvl 1a thinker says "crap he made his FD" and folds. A true level 1 thinker thinks about opponents entire range, and then has a fairly easy decision, am I ahead of 1/5 (20%) of that range. He doesnt have to believe he'll win most of the time, he just has to think he wins enough times against opponents range to make the pot odds attractive.
Out of interest, level 2 thinking in the 2nd scenario could go something like:
"Hmm, from the way I played this hand, villian is probably fairly sure I have TP, so he'd know this 3rd flush card would be a scare card for me, so if he doesnt have the flush, he may still bluff the pot expecting me to fold as I'd think he does have the flush."
And therefore hero would weight villians range a little more heavily towards a bluff. However to reiterate the point from the original post, this thinking is only valid if villian is actually thinking at level 1. If villian isnt actually thinking about what our most likely hands are, then we cant assume he could be adjusting his play to take that into account, and hence giving a bluff more likelyhood would be a mistake.
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Level 1a thinking and ranges
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