Quote Originally Posted by andy-akb
Quote Originally Posted by aislephive
I think this is AK waaaaaasy too often to fold. If you lose this, chalk it up as variance. Not going broke here without some sick mega read is terrible. Somebody's AF being low has nothing to do with this hand in particular, he could easily be overplaying AK or a worse aces up.

Hands like these are why you have a bankroll.
Do you think he ever has a worse aces up here or atleast often enough to really consider it? I think I should have pushed here and would see AK enough to be profitable but I dont think a worse aces up [meaning A9] is ever going to be shown to me. He smoothcalled a 3bet OOP preflop and is somewhat tight and very passive, I really think his range is AKx, QQ, AA.

Completely disregarding the sample size, why wouldnt his low AF have anything to do with this hand? Wouldnt his low factor mean that he would be much less likely to overplay a hand like this or atleast with a line like this? If he had a higher AF I would have talked myself out of the weak tight mindset I was in and called because it would have been much easier to put him on a weaker hand. With this AF if he were to overplay a hand wouldnt it be much much more likely it would be by calling too many [or too large] bets instead of making the bets himself? In this situation specifically his AF may not have a huge correlation but I think that has to do with the sample its over.

If my read was over 1k hands, or x number of hands where we would see fairly accurate stats, and we were 200BBs deep, how would you play this hand?
Passive players still share the same faulty trait that many players do of overvaluing one and even two pair hands. AK is a very likely hand, and AQ is also in his range to split. A 1/2 pot bet on the turn by him doesn't nessicarilly mean MONSTER, it could be a vulnerable hand he wants info if his hand is good. I agree with you that other than AK, there is little in his range you beat, but I DO think this is AK a TON. If he has a set here that's poker, but I just can't see folding this hand here.

If stacks were 200xbb deep I would probably go into call down mode, shoving the river if I hit a boat obviously. I just don't give 100nl players a lot of credit in general, and in 6 max hands like top two pair / sets I'm like never folding on a dry board for 100xbbs. That's basically what it comes down to. Him having the case two aces or queens is just sick luck as is top two vs bottom set. Online you really don't get as great of reads as you think you do. If this happened live there would be a chance I could find a fold vs a tight player at full ring who was giving off tells like mad.