I think you're right 90% of the time about the A9/AJ in his range thing, but I have seen extreme-donky cases of this or worse from ~30% vpips.

I also think you put too much weight on AF. I've had .5 or something like that after 50 maybe 100 hands, but over 1000+ it is closer to 3-4. The only thing is if my AF is low, I usually still have tag pf stats, so the 26/3 part of 26/3/.3 gives good credibility to being tight passive. A note on how he'd played a set or other actual reads would be better then relying on AF to dictate folding/pushing but I guess if it's ridiculous like .33 over 1000 then there's a real high chance he has one.