Stack leverage on the bubble

[benny999]

I'm new to SnGs, but I've read about this somewhere in this forum. I think in the old Ripptyde tourny guide. The situation is it's a 45 person SnG, with 5-6 left (the bubble or right after the bubble), and you are the big stack with say 45bb, and there are 3 short stacks with say 7-8bb.

It's folded to you on the button, and there's only the short stacks in the blind. You have say 7-1o off but a pretty tight table image (if anyone in the $5 SnG paid attention), and try a 3bb steal. The SB folds but BB reraises making it about 4BB more to call into the 8.5bb pot. Say his range is Axo, KJo+, any PP, and a slight chance of random shit, but most likely a pocket pair or Ax.

Is this an obvious fold as my fellow newbie friend keeps telling me, or is it worth it because of your stack size? I was thinking that most of his hands you are only a 2:1 dog, and the payout increases if you win, but even when you lose, you still have a big stack...but basically, he only considers if he's behind or ahead pre flop. Isn't it just as important to consider the payout increase vs. % of your stack you risk for the payout? I still have trouble knowing where to draw a line (like if the reraise is 6bb instead of 4, then fold? etc).

I ended up winning the SnG a minute ago with that situation where I called the extra 4bb, but my friend kept telling me how I'm such a lucky mo fo and have a lot to learn (I ended up paring my 10 vs. a 8 off or something like that to knock out the short stack). Anyway, I appreciate any help!!!!

[Pelion]

Yea go with the 2:1. Call it against that range. I think you are better then 2:1 to win against that range and his few chips are worth more than your mound of chips anyway.

[benny999]

Thanks for the input! So that was good logic to think about the pot odds and stack size instead of just cards, but just wondering if you think the same for this twist:

All the same situation except the reraise would give you moderately bad pot odds like 1.5:1 and you think you're a 2:1 dog (like 6bb to call into a 9bb pot but you have 42bb in your stack). I was thinking still call because the payout increase and you still are left with a big stack if you lose.

Also, could you tell me a program that calculates your odds vs. the range you put someone on?

[Staresy]

Also, could you tell me a program that calculates your odds vs. the range you put someone on?

PokerStove is a free one.

SnG Power Tools is a bit more advanced; but you have to pay (but you get a free trial with it first). This is more about pushing and calling pushes and it works out whether they are +/-EV .

[jackvance]

I don't think the benefit here comes from pot odds.. your stack being so much bigger than his doesn't really affect those odds. The smaller of both the stacks is kinda the 'upper limit' of the show-down.

The advantage is probably more a psychological one. Small is more likely to do desperation bets, more likely to fold when pressured by a big stack opp (cuz of intimidation), and more likely to generally suck at poker.

But all in all I'm still struggling to grasp these odds fully myself. Take for example this situation: you have put $5 in the pot, and so has your opp. So the pot is $10. Your opp goes all-in for $10. You have a flush draw. Should you chase?

* if you calculate pot odds, you have 37% to hit the flush, and need to invest 33% so it's a good idea
* if you calculate the total however, you have 37% to hit the flush, and you will have invested $15 in a $30 pot, so 50%. So this is not in your favor.

Which interpretation to take?

[benny999]

Thanks, I'll check out those programs. I've been playing almost a year off and on, and this site has taught me a lot, so advice is appreciated

This is more about pushing and calling pushes and it works out whether they are +/-EV .

Could you please elaborate or reccomend a link or book?

Also thanks for the thoughts and I get what you're saying jackvance, but the thing I'm thinking is that pot odds are not as applicable in a tourny, especially near the bubble, as they are in ring games, when you can simply reload and no matter how long you play, there are the same payouts. I'm not really sure about the details and math though.

I noticed you asked about pot odds in another post. I left some comments, and noticed two others left very good advice. Basically, in that situation, I believe you are making a very marginally correct call (you should not consider what you invested in the past as that is "dead/sunk" and you also calculate the % your investing now relative to the TOTAL pot, so you just look at 37% to win vs. 33% to invest, but you may need to discount the 37% for reverse implied odds)...also it's rarely as cut and dry as a short stack going AI on a 2-player flop.

[Pelion]

I don't think the benefit here comes from pot odds.. your stack being so much bigger than his doesn't really affect those odds. The smaller of both the stacks is kinda the 'upper limit' of the show-down.

The advantage is probably more a psychological one. Small is more likely to do desperation bets, more likely to fold when pressured by a big stack opp (cuz of intimidation), and more likely to generally suck at poker.

Tournaments dont quite work that way. Say we give villain a deck full of aces and a 5BB stack. You on the other hand are delt 56s every hand but you have 10000000BB in your stack. He will push ever hand but you should call every hand since you have a 20% chance of winning the tournament every time you call (even though it is only 20%). This is because chips in a tournament do not all have equal value. When you have a small stack each individual chip is worth much more to you than when you have a large stack. In a cash game however every chip has the exact same value so everything must be based on pot odds alone.

[jackvance]

Oh didn't quite read the context there. Well, I still wouldn't take it unless, like similar to Pelion's example, you superbly outstack everyone more than 100:1. Why would you go in with the worst odds? Fold it and wait for decent odds. You're in the driver's seat there, why ruin it?... If he takes his share now, and he has 2:1 to do so, then a few bad luck breaks later him or someone else might be catching up.

[benny999]

But what exactly is the "driver's seat?" If I do win the hand, my reward is substantially increased, and if I lose, maybe I am still in the drivers seat? I was hoping there is a more objective way to look at this situation, like how pot-odds in ring can dictate a call or fold decision.

Maybe I can look at as if my call with bad odds ends up putting me close to a 2 or 3 place stack, it's a fold, but if I can call and at worse still end substantially higher than the 2nd stack, it's a call.

Arg that doesn't seem totally right either since the odds are, like jackvance wrote, I probably can find a spot with higher odds...ok I gotta stop thinking about it, maybe just be happy that like everything else, the answer is "it depends on a ton of stuff"

[jackvance]

I'm a math buff.. check out some of my other posts.. but I can't readily see an angle to calculate this into your advantage, sorry.

Btw I'm finally starting to get the "feel" for the 6max game and how to play the fish psychology for maximum profit. It'll take me a while to master it though, but it's coming. Having all the odds readily at my disposal in my head is a big advantage! But how to play the "people" in this game requires experience, which I'm accumulating now. Need to plug some more leaks too. Made $20 today, which, together with my MTT winnings from yesterday, puts me positive for the first time! I can't say I'm displeased as it's my 13th day of playing poker. (ofcourse might blow it again tomorrow, but let's stay positive lol)

Also did some multi-tabling for the first time today. Was a bit "much" at first, but it's going nicely. In the end I was even getting reads on people at both tables at once.. not as accurate as with one table but decent. Separating the "tights" from the "callers" is crucial in 6max.. the former can be bluffed out of a big pot, the latter can be dragged along your winning hand. Mixing both up can be fatal for your bankroll. (lost $10 trying to bluff out a caller I had no read on yet.. awtch)

Btw poker really is a game you have to play in "sleepy-mode". Don't get too attached.. just play your routine.. don't really care if you lose money or win money etc. Keep playing your game. Wait for those killer cards to come. It's a bit boring, but nice since there is money involved. I hope I can build a nice BR to move up in stakes when I feel I have accumulated enough experience.

[benny999]

Thanks for the confirmation, and nice job, I'm impressed with how quick you are picking things up. I know what it's like since about a year ago I started like you, break even at the penny games, but then learnings and experience kicked in...and if I could win the BR (defintely read that sticky post if you haven't yet) to move up to $25 and almost $50 tables now I'm sure you will too...just keep on that track and trust me, penny tables will become incredibly simple. The money is sweet, but there really is a ton of stuff to learn in this game, and it applies in lots of situations besides hold em (EV, game theory, reading people, etc).

[jackvance]

Thx for the heads-up

Lost $10 earlier today.. two bad beats in a row. Both instances a <10% on the river shafted me. Very frustrating.

But made my $10 back just now. As I play more, the intricate psychology of the poker game is revealing itself to me bit by bit. And in 6max, this is actually more important to maximize your profits than in 10max.

Most of this $10 profit came from bluffs actually, once I figured out when and how to launch this properly. (this from the same guy who asked two days ago how to bluff! haha) It seems 'table image' is the most important factor here. This dictates opp behavior a lot more than how tight or loose they might be. Fish go with their emotions. Near the end, I think I was a pretty dominating presence. To give one example, a guy checked on the river to me, holding a flush!

And if you're the dominating presence in a 6max game, your profits will come from bluffing and downplaying a good hand. And if you take the pot a couple times in a short timespan, then would be a great time to get that winning hand.. because 'bluff suspect' kicks in on the table, and people might get tempted to tilt and call you on it

Etc. I'll give myself 2-3 days to solidify my game a bit before I go multi-tabling with this approach.

[chardrian]

Say his range is Axo, KJo+, any PP, and a slight chance of random shit, but most likely a pocket pair or Ax.

Pokerstove is really useful.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 35.5444 % 35.18% 00.37% { T7o }
Hand 2: 64.4556 % 64.09% 00.37% { 22+, A2s+, KJs+, A2o+, KJo+ }

If your range is right (and that's where the real debate comes in), then it's fine to call there. 4BB/12.5BB = .32.