[2NL] AQs UTG - Facing flop raise on dry board

[Cobra_1878]

Villain was 39/23/7 through 126 hands. Folded to 38% of cbets, 5/13. This was the first time I had seen Villain raise a flop.

PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: $5.26
Hero (UTG): $2.00
MP: $1.00
CO: $2.74
BTN: $2.83
SB: $5.81

SB posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has A Q

Hero raises to $0.06, fold, CO calls $0.06, fold, fold, fold

Flop: ($0.15, 2 players) 7 J Q
Hero bets $0.10, CO raises to $0.38, Hero ???

Thoughts???

[Savy]

When you say it's the first time you've seen him raise a flop, what had he been calling cbets with?

I'd assume that he'd be 3betting QQ+, AQ+.

He could easily have two pair, maybe a set of 7s or Js. He could be raising KT, 9T but probably not that often. Maybe 89 too if he's bad.

If it's the first time I've seen him do it in 100+ hands I'd probably give him credit if I have a TPTK type hand and fold, however whether that's the right thing to do I have no idea.

Thought you were having a shot at 5nl today btw.

[Cobra_1878]

When you say it's the first time you've seen him raise a flop, what had he been calling cbets with?

I'd assume that he'd be 3betting QQ+, AQ+.

He could easily have two pair, maybe a set of 7s or Js. He could be raising KT, 9T but probably not that often. Maybe 89 too if he's bad.

If it's the first time I've seen him do it in 100+ hands I'd probably give him credit if I have a TPTK type hand and fold, however whether that's the right thing to do I have no idea.

Thought you were having a shot at 5nl today btw.

I had no notes on him calling flop cbets so I assume I had seen him do nothing out of line.

You don't think he would 3bet JJ IP?

These are old hands, was just having a review session of my play from EP. I just need a few more BI and I will be rolled for 5NL again.

[Deucebag]

With his stats and him raising a flop for the first time ever, he must have either a) two pair qj, b) two pair 7j, c) set of 7s, d) air.

I'd bet on c, but d is equally probable.

[spoonitnow]

Him raising the flop for the first time over this small of a sample size is borderline irrelevant.

[Micro2Macro]

time to see a turn

[Deucebag]

What are we hoping to see on the turn?

[Savy]

Him raising the flop for the first time over this small of a sample size is borderline irrelevant.

I was kind of thinking this, however I have no idea when stats become relevant with things like raising a c-bet.

Any advice? (sorry if it's a stupid question)

[Micro2Macro]

What are we hoping to see on the turn?

we aren't hoping for anything. we're just going to play our hand the best we can and whatever happens happens.

[daviddem]

I don't like calling the big flop raise unless we have a read that he overplays top pair or is capable of semi-bluffing with an OESD or gutshot + overcard(s). We're OOP and most turns are going to be c/f, even if we catch a FD.

Some post flop aggression stats/reads would help.

[rpm]

i call for a mixture of the following reasons (in no particular order): there are only 15 combinations in the preflop range i'd assign him that currently beat us, he has an aggressive preflop game, he doesn't like to fold to continuation bets, he thus could possibly be bluffing or semi-bluffing us here, he could possibly raise worse for value, we have a BDFD (this is actually pretty helpful in these spots imo, means we don't have to fold our equity on as high a % of later streets), can't win if you fold

[daviddem]

If he is semi-bluffing a lot here, or overplaying TP then, yes. But in that case, I'd expect him to fold nothing to a shove so if we're well ahead of his calling range, why give a free card and not get it in?

Note that if Villain is thinking at all (unlikely), he should know that this board hits our range well which decreases his fold equity. Added to this, Hero is not a nit.

edit: rpm, I am not sure that "can't win if you fold" is a good advice for the BC. Not loosing is a huge part of winning.

[rpm]

ok ok i'll clarify that the "can't win if you fold" part was a joke. it's a tom dwan quote from (probably) high stakes poker

[rpm]

If he is semi-bluffing a lot here, or overplaying TP then, yes. But in that case, I'd expect him to fold nothing to a shove so if we're well ahead of his calling range, why give a free card and not get it in?

we can't be sure that he will make the mistake of calling with his 8-out draws, we can't be sure that he will raise/call off a jam with worse value hands that he raises, we want to keep whatever, if any, pure bluffs or weak semi-bluffs (ie gutters w/no overcards) villain may have here in his range.

in a nutshell, i don't think we are called often enough to 3b jam this flop for value, but i think we do well enough against his flop raising range (and our BDFD gives our hand slightly more playability on later streets) to call, despite having a positional disadvantage.