TPTK gets raised oop on a safe river (4NL FR)

[rowhousepd]

Did I play this too passively? I think yes, but please chime in. Villain is 25/10/2.0 who cbets ~85% on pretty much every street (which is high, no?). No other reads.

Merge Network $0.02/$0.04 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players

BTN: $4.15
SB: $4.57
Hero (BB): $6.77
UTG: $3.58
UTG+1: $6.54
UTG+2: $4.00
MP1: $4.08
MP2: $4.00
CO: $3.96

Pre Flop: ($0.06) Hero is BB with A K
2 folds, UTG+2 raises to $0.14, 5 folds, Hero calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.30) 3 K Q (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+2 bets $0.30, Hero calls $0.30

I flop TPTK w/ a drawy board, but knowing he'll cbet I figured I'd call now stay in the hand as long as the turn isn't too scary.

Turn: ($0.90) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+2 bets $1.02, Hero calls $1.02

I still feel good about my hand here and figured he'd keep betting. Would this have been a good time to check-raise? Well, I didn't, and the new plan was to c/c, and if the river was a blank, I'd fire.

River: ($2.94) 4 (2 players)

Great, a blank! So I fire away a 1/2 pot valuebet. But then....

Hero bets $1.47, UTG+2 raises to $2.54 all in.

Uh oh. I'm committed now w/ a $7 pot, so I have to call. Did I mess this hand up? Should I have been more aggressive earlier, even against a fairly aggressive villain?

Btw, I'm about ~75% vs his range assuming he raises preflop w/ { 55+, A9s+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }

[rpm]

what's his fold to 3b? there may be value in 3betting preflop. flop is completely standard vs someone with such a high CBet. even a more moderate 50-60% CBettor is going to have enough AT/AJ/44-77 type hands to C/C profitably. for some sick reason i want to put him on 1 of 16 combos {33,QQ,KK,AA,KQ} and fold to the turn overbet. i realise how incredibly nitty this sounds, and i may be out of touch now, but when i played <25nl, EVERY time i looked up an overbet of the pot it was the nuts. anyhow, i'm pretty sure it's a mistake to bet this river unless you are comfortable calling off the shove. personally, on the river, i'd prefer check/calling to bet/calling or bet/folding if you decide that your hand is good enough to showdown vs his range.

[rowhousepd]

what's his fold to 3b? there may be value in 3betting preflop.

Yeah, I thought of that. I normally 3bet AKo in just about situation but I was gonna be OOP. His fold vs 3bet is 50%, but that's only out of 6 opportunities, so it's kinda hard to say.

flop is completely standard vs someone with such a high CBet. even a more moderate 50-60% CBettor is going to have enough AT/AJ/44-77 type hands to C/C profitably. for some sick reason i want to put him on 1 of 16 combos {33,QQ,KK,AA,KQ} and fold to the turn overbet. i realise how incredibly nitty this sounds, and i may be out of touch now, but when i played <25nl, EVERY time i looked up an overbet of the pot it was the nuts.

Huh, good point. At the time I think it just made me narrow his range to non-drawing (non-semibluff draw hands) since he was basically telling me to go away w/ that overbet. That would leave {QQ+, 66, AQs+, KQs, AQo+, KQo}. I'm not in horrible shape, but I'm certainly not in great shape.

[rpm]

Yeah, I thought of that. I normally 3bet AKo in just about situation but I was gonna be OOP. His fold vs 3bet is 50%, but that's only out of 6 opportunities, so it's kinda hard to say.
.

given he has only folded to 50% of 3bets, i'd definitely be looking to 3bet AK here. he almost certainly calls with dominated hands like Axs,KQ and maybe even KJ, so we get value from those hands. we also gain the initiative in the hand and so we can cbet certain boards profitably (he probably calls with a heap of small/middle pocket pairs which are rarely going to provide enough equity/playability for him on the flop to continue) - giving us another way in which we can win the hand.

[Imthenewfish]

imo turn is pretty close, but i fold given we're going to be oop on the river to someone showing aggression

[bikes]

would fold as played but would played the hand completely differently

[Openside]

Btw, I'm about ~75% vs his range assuming he raises preflop w/ { 55+, A9s+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }

I think its more likely that a weak passive open limps his low pp and suited As. As played i think your better to c/c or c/f the river rather than donking into him.

I dont like your PF range. If he is PFRing 55 why not 22-44 etc? His range gets smaller on each street. I highly doubt he plays like this with his entire PF range.

EDIT: is his sizing usually psb when 2barreling?

[rowhousepd]

given he has only folded to 50% of 3bets, i'd definitely be looking to 3bet AK here. he almost certainly calls with dominated hands like Axs,KQ and maybe even KJ, so we get value from those hands.

The thing I don't like about having Fold vs 3Bet on my hud is that it takes a long time to normalize and I'm often finding myself making snap decisions based on it, then realizing it was based on like three opportunities -- or in this case only 6. Isn't that too few instances to make 3bet decisions on?

I think its more likely that a weak passive open limps his low pp and suited As. As played i think your better to c/c or c/f the river rather than donking into him.

I dont like your PF range. If he is PFRing 55 why not 22-44 etc? His range gets smaller on each street. I highly doubt he plays like this with his entire PF range.

EDIT: is his sizing usually psb when 2barreling?

You're probably right about limping / set mining w/ lower pocket pairs. I guess I don't have specific reason not to include 55 vs 22 -- I'm never really sure where to make an exact cut off since ranges are estimated, but I figured he he's not as likely raising baby PP.

(Don't have reads about bet sizing, btw.)