TPTK gets raised oop on a safe river (4NL FR)

what's his fold to 3b? there may be value in 3betting preflop. flop is completely standard vs someone with such a high CBet. even a more moderate 50-60% CBettor is going to have enough AT/AJ/44-77 type hands to C/C profitably. for some sick reason i want to put him on 1 of 16 combos {33,QQ,KK,AA,KQ} and fold to the turn overbet. i realise how incredibly nitty this sounds, and i may be out of touch now, but when i played <25nl, EVERY time i looked up an overbet of the pot it was the nuts. anyhow, i'm pretty sure it's a mistake to bet this river unless you are comfortable calling off the shove. personally, on the river, i'd prefer check/calling to bet/calling or bet/folding if you decide that your hand is good enough to showdown vs his range.

Originally Posted by rpm

what's his fold to 3b? there may be value in 3betting preflop.

Yeah, I thought of that. I normally 3bet AKo in just about situation but I was gonna be OOP. His fold vs 3bet is 50%, but that's only out of 6 opportunities, so it's kinda hard to say.

flop is completely standard vs someone with such a high CBet. even a more moderate 50-60% CBettor is going to have enough AT/AJ/44-77 type hands to C/C profitably. for some sick reason i want to put him on 1 of 16 combos {33,QQ,KK,AA,KQ} and fold to the turn overbet. i realise how incredibly nitty this sounds, and i may be out of touch now, but when i played <25nl, EVERY time i looked up an overbet of the pot it was the nuts.

Huh, good point. At the time I think it just made me narrow his range to non-drawing (non-semibluff draw hands) since he was basically telling me to go away w/ that overbet. That would leave {QQ+, 66, AQs+, KQs, AQo+, KQo}. I'm not in horrible shape, but I'm certainly not in great shape.

Originally Posted by rowhousepd

Yeah, I thought of that. I normally 3bet AKo in just about situation but I was gonna be OOP. His fold vs 3bet is 50%, but that's only out of 6 opportunities, so it's kinda hard to say.
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given he has only folded to 50% of 3bets, i'd definitely be looking to 3bet AK here. he almost certainly calls with dominated hands like Axs,KQ and maybe even KJ, so we get value from those hands. we also gain the initiative in the hand and so we can cbet certain boards profitably (he probably calls with a heap of small/middle pocket pairs which are rarely going to provide enough equity/playability for him on the flop to continue) - giving us another way in which we can win the hand.