10NL river decision

[Hoopy]

Villein has just sat down, from the size of his stack I assume he's not a reg. Other caller is a fish.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (MP) ($10.24)
CO ($4.67)
Button ($6.75)
SB ($9.90)
BB ($10)
UTG ($8.15)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 10, 10
UTG bets $0.30, Hero calls $0.30, CO calls $0.30, 3 folds

Flop: ($1.05) 8, 6, 3 (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.80, 1 fold, UTG calls $0.80

Turn: ($2.65) 3 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $2, UTG calls $2

River: ($6.65) J (2 players)
UTG bets $5.05 (All-In), Hero goes wat??????

Hand is standard up to this point, I think he gets to the river with hands like 77, 6x, spade draws and straight draws, maybe the odd monster as well. We need 30% equity vs his range here, call or fold?

[EasyPoker]

IF we have no reads, then shouldn't we assume he's only shoving that river with:
JJ+,88,66,33,AQs+,KQs - he did open UTG too. We have to give him respect for that. Although I'd note it was only 3x pre, which seems odd. The turn check looks to me like a flush draw that got there on the river. Against that range though, you don't have 30%. So I'd fold tbh, and wait for better reads.

Incidentally, I'd bet slightly more on the flop.

[Razvan729]

someone erased my post, dont matter.

anyway flop calling puts him on sets, overpairs, spade FD, turn might add an hearts FD, but river shove seems thin to do it with air. you are beat there by most of its range so i dont see that 30% there.... my guess is always a fold here.

i would pot flop and turn here and river is c/f for sure.

[Raoni_Poker]

You only beat a bluff at this point and I think he is not bluffing enough to make this a call (otherwise HE would be the aggressor).

He could do this with a missed spade draw (assuming that you did not have a heart draw), but without reads, I'm not confident about calling. If we account for some of the combos that beat you and would take that line (11 combos of 88, 66, JJ, A3s), he yould need to bluff at least 9 combos of missed FDs (down to 45ss considering that QJss, AJss and KJss beat you now).