|
Shoving A-rag into second stack on the bubble
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 1.2 Tournament, 100/200 Blinds (4 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
BB (t4335)
UTG (t1160)
Hero (Button) (t1340)
SB (t6665)
Hero's M: 4.47
Preflop: Hero is Button with A , 7
1 fold, Hero bets t1340 (All-In), 1 fold, BB calls t1140
Didn't seem like such a good idea after I did it. ICM continues to surprise me though, so I thought I'd crunch the numbers and see if it wasn't all that bad, considering I was a bit short stacked. Unless I've messed this up it was a +EV play.
(Note that I'm not accounting for the possibility that the SB might call, which would probably make this worse for me, but let's for the sake of argument pretend that's not a possibility.)
Read on villain was pretty loose, so let's say he'll call with any pair or any broadway (17.9% of hands). That means I'll steal 82.1% of the time and go to showdown 17.9%). With that calling range I'll win 42.4% of the time. Running the ICM numbers:
EV steal = +2.47%
EV win = +8.89%
EV lose = -16.27%
EV shove = (82.1% * +2.47%) + (17.9% * ((42.4% * +8.89%) + (57.6% * -16.27))) = +1.03%
So even though I'll lose most of the time if he calls, even on the bubble shoving here is +EV (again assuming SB doesn't call but even if he'd been sitting out the result still would have surprised me).
Let's say my read on villain is wrong though and he's certain I'm bluffing and will call with ATC. No steal EV so I'll have to show it down. I'll win 58.8% of the time.
EV shove = (58.8% * +8.89%) + (41.2% * -16.27) = -1.48%
So clearly I don't want to be called.
Anyhow, just thought that was interesting.
|