Select Page
Poker Forum
Over 1,292,000 Posts!
Poker ForumTournament Poker

Shoving A-rag into second stack on the bubble

Results 1 to 7 of 7

Threaded View

Previous Post Previous Post   Next Post Next Post
  1. #1

    Default Shoving A-rag into second stack on the bubble

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 1.2 Tournament, 100/200 Blinds (4 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    BB (t4335)
    UTG (t1160)
    Hero (Button) (t1340)
    SB (t6665)

    Hero's M: 4.47

    Preflop: Hero is Button with A, 7
    1 fold, Hero bets t1340 (All-In), 1 fold, BB calls t1140


    Didn't seem like such a good idea after I did it. ICM continues to surprise me though, so I thought I'd crunch the numbers and see if it wasn't all that bad, considering I was a bit short stacked. Unless I've messed this up it was a +EV play.

    (Note that I'm not accounting for the possibility that the SB might call, which would probably make this worse for me, but let's for the sake of argument pretend that's not a possibility.)

    Read on villain was pretty loose, so let's say he'll call with any pair or any broadway (17.9% of hands). That means I'll steal 82.1% of the time and go to showdown 17.9%). With that calling range I'll win 42.4% of the time. Running the ICM numbers:

    EV steal = +2.47%
    EV win = +8.89%
    EV lose = -16.27%

    EV shove = (82.1% * +2.47%) + (17.9% * ((42.4% * +8.89%) + (57.6% * -16.27))) = +1.03%

    So even though I'll lose most of the time if he calls, even on the bubble shoving here is +EV (again assuming SB doesn't call but even if he'd been sitting out the result still would have surprised me).

    Let's say my read on villain is wrong though and he's certain I'm bluffing and will call with ATC. No steal EV so I'll have to show it down. I'll win 58.8% of the time.

    EV shove = (58.8% * +8.89%) + (41.2% * -16.27) = -1.48%

    So clearly I don't want to be called.

    Anyhow, just thought that was interesting.
    Last edited by ManicLombax; 08-25-2010 at 12:29 PM.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •