Shoving A-rag into second stack on the bubble

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 1.2 Tournament, 100/200 Blinds (4 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB (t4335)
UTG (t1160)
Hero (Button) (t1340)
SB (t6665)

Hero's M: 4.47

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, 7
1 fold, Hero bets t1340 (All-In), 1 fold, BB calls t1140


Didn't seem like such a good idea after I did it. ICM continues to surprise me though, so I thought I'd crunch the numbers and see if it wasn't all that bad, considering I was a bit short stacked. Unless I've messed this up it was a +EV play.

(Note that I'm not accounting for the possibility that the SB might call, which would probably make this worse for me, but let's for the sake of argument pretend that's not a possibility.)

Read on villain was pretty loose, so let's say he'll call with any pair or any broadway (17.9% of hands). That means I'll steal 82.1% of the time and go to showdown 17.9%). With that calling range I'll win 42.4% of the time. Running the ICM numbers:

EV steal = +2.47%
EV win = +8.89%
EV lose = -16.27%

EV shove = (82.1% * +2.47%) + (17.9% * ((42.4% * +8.89%) + (57.6% * -16.27))) = +1.03%

So even though I'll lose most of the time if he calls, even on the bubble shoving here is +EV (again assuming SB doesn't call but even if he'd been sitting out the result still would have surprised me).

Let's say my read on villain is wrong though and he's certain I'm bluffing and will call with ATC. No steal EV so I'll have to show it down. I'll win 58.8% of the time.

EV shove = (58.8% * +8.89%) + (41.2% * -16.27) = -1.48%

So clearly I don't want to be called.

Anyhow, just thought that was interesting.

Most of the time you shove all your chips in the middle, you do not want to be called, especially on the bubble. Even if you have AKo, then unless you have the caller dominated, you are going to be at best 2 - 1 to win the hand, so you get nothing 1 time in 3. It's the times that you get folds that make shoving profitable.

This is quite an interesting spot. If the BB is loose, then I would say your range is a little bit tight. I think that given the BB's stack size, he's probably going to be willing to gamble with most Aces and some middling Kings too. I'd say he probably would call about 25%. But even then, if the SB was sitting out, you could push profitably with about the same range of 25%, so A7o is a pretty easy push. The trouble is, the SB is not sitting out and if he's calling more than 5%, its an unprofitable shove.

Also, if you have a relatively small number of chips more than the shortest stack, you have to tighten up a lot. If the SB were sitting out and you had another 200 chips and the shortest stack 200 fewer then its again no longer profitable to push A7o. It just shows that stack sizes and position can make huge differences at bubble time.

I agree with Duffryn, a big part of the value of shoving is the times when opp folds and you win the blinds uncontested. If you get called, you can mostly figure on being either behind or only 60/40 to win at best (eg. if you get called by something like KJo). It's why understanding your likely fold equity is very important when deciding whether to shove - and this in turn depends upon stack sizes, reads and position (and maybe some other factors too).

Thanks for the replies. Probably should have been a little more patient here. Would a 600 chip steal be better here or is push/fold my only choice? Fold is probably best of all I'd think, if we stop pretending the SB is sitting out.

Honestly I just got a little excited because I had doubled up 2 hands prior to this one.

Originally Posted by ManicLombax

Would a 600 chip steal be better here or is push/fold my only choice? Fold is probably best of all I'd think, if we stop pretending the SB is sitting out.

Honestly I just got a little excited because I had doubled up 2 hands prior to this one.

Definitely don't raise to 600 and then even THINK about folding to a shove over, that's just awful. Shove or fold is your only choice here. I haven't run this in SNG Wiz but my gut reaction without playing with various call ranges for BB is that your shove is fine.

Also, don't be results oriented - would you have posted this hand if opp hadn't called (or if he did call and you sucked out)? There will be times when you make a shove that is 100% correct and run into aces (and don't suck out).

Nope. You're right if I had not been called I wouldn't have thought twice about it. As you guessed, BB called, I lost. Seemed like a bad idea directly afterwards, but you're right betting 600 then folding would have been silly. Guess I'll shove again if it comes up.

Thanks!

Push/fold is the only choice. If you raise to 600, then if either blind shoves, you have to call, so you should maximise the chance of getting both of them to fold by shoving in the first place.

I don't think shoving A7o here is bad. If you shove and the SB calls, then the BB could shove all in and the SB would have a difficult decision. So really if you shove and the SB wants to play, the SB should shove all in. But because the BB has a big stack, the SB should not risk most of his stack lightly, so you shoving puts the SB between a rock and hard place. He should therefore play tightly. If he does do that and plays 5% or less, then shoving A7o is profitable, as I said in my last post. The trouble is that its a $1.20, so I doubt the SB will go through this thought process and my guess is that both the SB and BB will call you quite wide making it an unprofitable shove.

On the other hand, you are not likely to see a better spot in the next few hands. Next time you are in the SB, it may not be folded to you and next time you on are on the BTN you will probably have a worse hand and fewer chips. So I would be inclined to push A7o in this spot, even if it is somewhat unprofitable, if they call with 10/20% respectively. Its definitely a close decision.