to chase or not to chase, that is my question

[Santo2True]

edit: sorry about the title... i'll leave that for the next question, lol
This one should be "help me tighten my game please"

So I've been applying alot of my studies to my game, and I can see my bb/100 are coming out of the negative. Bottomline hasn't changed much, but I'm not losing nearly as much as I was overall.

But there are a few things in my game I need some help with if anyone is willing to take the time.

First major one is barreling:

I know this is very opponent related and there is no one correct answer for all situations
But doing ev calculations at the table while multi-table playing is not an easy task for me yet. As far as my hand reading skills, they are improving but also have a ways to go.
I can usually tell when a fish is going to fold after a flop that missed me and I cbet since I raised PF. I understand when I raise pre from the button with say J9o and two limpers in early position call me but the flop comes 52Q and it gets checked to me this a good spot for a cbet and 99% of the time I'm taking down the pot.

But it's the times where a board comes dry like this and one opponent calls the cbet after checking and the turn comes say A. So there's 52QA and one limper who called my PFR and my cbet but checks back to me again. My feeling here is usually if I KNOW this opponent very rarely is going to limp an A and then call a missed flop with only Ax and now checks when an A does hit what is the proper bet amount or action here?

Normally I would bet about half pot here and I'd say 50% of the time opponent will fold and the other times he will call. On the river there is another blank card like an 8
At this point when opponent checks, what is the play? I feel like I almost never bet here and usually check behind at which point I muck my hand and hope no one was watching as I lose to a pair of deuces or if they were they keep this in mind next time I have a monster against them

So mainly I have done a ton of reading and practicing and I feel like my preflop game has improved immensely, but at times I find myself not knowing what to do on the turn and on the river.

I'll leave it at this for now and have another question later...

Thank for any insight, or even a link to maybe some reading material that goes in depth with these kind of hands.

[JKDS]

Poker is the easiest game in the world if you could figure out with 100% certainty your opponents range and how he plays that range. The best players can do this very well (think nutsinho who called with Ahi for like 20k)...the worst cant (think the bluff call).

If you want to get better at poker, you need to work on this aspect as its literally the most important, and from your posts (and this post) it seems that you arent really doing it. It does take a while to move from a "i do x in y situations" aspect to a "opps range is x, so i do y with z" aspect...but you have to make the move or you wont get any better.

Lets explore the above hand for practice. We're playing the hand 3 times.

1st time: Villain is a 10/2 type. He limped, then c/c on a Q52r board. What possible hands could he have here? Reads are that he slowplays rarely, and is reluctant to fold Top pair no kicker to any bet, but thinks middle pair type hands are trash.

2nd time: now villain is a 62/0 type that likes to float with air sometimes, and is certainly calling a bet with any piece.

3rd time: now villain is an aggressive 24/10 who would surely lead out or check raise a lot of hands against you on this board...but may get tricky with nut hands and slowplay.

Other practice...we just sat down. Its our third hand, and we noticed that the limper who c/ced the flop limped twice previously, and folded to a cbet. What kind of assumptions might we make to help us play against him even though they might be wrong? Like...we dont have much information...but how can we use the little info we have to help make a better guess at his range?

[Santo2True]

1st time.... i don't see this player usually limping, he seems massively tight... but if he did and called my raise and then called my cbet I'd think he'd have a hand OOP in the range of {AQo, AKo, Aks, AQs, AJs, AJo, 77+, maybe KQs} however I'd think he was raising pre with these hands... or 4betting me pre
On the flop he'd probably be calling with any of the Ax hands and probably calling with any 77+ hands if the cbet is small enough. I would not be double barreling against this opponent. I would assume he'd be c/r with any AQ and would either be leading or c/r any A on the turn at which time ofcourse I'd be folding

2nd time.... I would probably be barreling the hell out of this opponent and making him pay big to see the turn. If he did call I would have to deffinitly put him on any piece of the board even bottom pair and would probably just give up and check behind the rest of the streets.
Pre range for opponent.. {22+, 76s+, JTo+, A2s+, A8o+ (maybe lower?), Q8s+, Q9o+, K9s+, KTo+} He'd probably be continuing on this board with {22, 55, 77+, Qx, Ax}


3rd time... this is where I am very confused... I dont' know where to go with this opponent as he could show up with nothing, or he could show up with a nut hand. I guess this would greatly depend on what the action was on this board. If I missed the flop I suppose checking behind would be good, but then I leave myself open for a bluff on the turn, or even worse a check raise on the turn when I do decide to barrel and then I'd be totally lost. So I guess the best bet WOULD be to cbet the flop and see what he does, if he c/r's then deffinitly fold, if he calls probably check behind the rest of the way? But opponents that slow play a nut hand and c/r alot is where I find most my problems.
Pre range for opponent... {22+, 9Ts+, AJs+, AJo+, KJs+, KQs}
Continuing with.... {22, 55, QQ, KQ, AJ+, maybe worse for one street?}

as for the just sitting down and seeing a limper fold to cbets, I'd be 3betting him very often if he is the only limper with a very wide range in position. If he's betting on a flop and I missed probably best to fold here with nothing but if he checks I'd probably barrel every street against him. It would be pretty easy to figure out his range after watching what he does if he's betting I should be able to figure out when he has me beat.

Its somewhat hard to play these positions out without seeing the action as I'm more of a visual person but these are pretty much the lines I would take. As far off as they may be, but that's why I'm here....

Overall:
Typically with an unimproved hand I will only throw one barrel and give up. I would say it's better to not barrel to often against a player that is going to call you down as I'm also going to lose alot of respect and would prefer to have somewhat of a good table image so that later on my barrels will recieve some sort of acknowledgement. Ofcourse in any situation that I feel I'm getting floated on these are the times that I will continue barreling. This all applies to when I have complete air. Not considering a semi-bluff and allowing for a free card to finish a draw or combo I may have.


edit, forget to include ranges for 2 and 3.. at work, I will continue to work on this post for a little bit, hard to type everything out and stay consistant while I'm working

[jaytoi]

1st time.... i don't see this player usually limping, he seems massively tight... but if he did and called my raise and then called my cbet I'd think he'd have a hand OOP in the range of {AQo, AKo, Aks, AQs, AJs, AJo, 77+, maybe KQs} however I'd think he was raising pre with these hands... or 4betting me pre

When he calls your cbet you need to take missed hands out of his range as he isn't just calling with any piece , like you've indicated. So adjust his range in this case to like (QJs+, TT-JJ+) and maybe even thinner depending on how nitty you think he is. He is limping or calling raises with an 8 percent range, (subtracting the VPIP of 10 from the PFR of 2), so stove defaults that at about {88+,ATs+,KTs+,QJs,AJo+}. It could be even thinner now considering he limp-called. While he is certainly limping hands in your given range, he isn't calling flop with his entire range.
Also , I think you mean he would have 3bet you pre if he had holdings like {QQ+, AKs,Ako). Which is a fair assumption and means we can probably discount them from his flop range.

On the flop he'd probably be calling with any of the Ax hands and probably calling with any 77+ hands if the cbet is small enough. I would not be double barreling against this opponent. I would assume he'd be c/r with any AQ and would either be leading or c/r any A on the turn at which time ofcourse I'd be
folding

Why any Ax hands? We've already established this guy is a bit nitty so if he doesn't hit a good piece, he's outta there, insta. We need a more realistic estimation of his range on the flop if he checks then calls your bet. I would discount AQ from his range as he's likely to donk lead and (maaaybe) checkraise it too. Your decision not to double barrel here is correct, unless of course you think you can very profitably bluff K or A turns, and even then, a K or A is giving him 2 pair so much of the time that it's probably not worth it.

2nd time.... I would probably be barreling the hell out of this opponent and making him pay big to see the turn. If he did call I would have to deffinitly put him on any piece of the board even bottom pair and would probably just give up and check behind the rest of the streets.

62/0 opp probably has loads of random shit on the flop that he's calling down. I think the continuing range you've assigned him {22,55,Qx,Ax} is too small, and he's definitely not giving up with any of it!

Therefore you probably shouldn't be "barreling the hell out of this opponent" unless it's for value with a TP type hand. If you have missed the board, I would c/f and wait for a better opportunity to take this guys money . Or perhaps maybe bluff 2 streets if you have a good read that this guy will chase random draws to the turn and then give up (in this case parts of his range like {A3s, A3o,34s, AK, KJ even if he's really bad}. Figure out his preflop range and you can figure out how much of the time he's drawing or on a bottom pair type hand. Then figure out when to bet for value or (occasionally) bet 2 streets as a bluff.

3rd time... this is where I am very confused... I dont' know where to go with this opponent as he could show up with nothing, or he could show up with a nut hand. I guess this would greatly depend on what the action was on this board. If I missed the flop I suppose checking behind would be good, but then I leave myself open for a bluff on the turn, or even worse a check raise on the turn when I do decide to barrel and then I'd be totally lost. So I guess the best bet WOULD be to cbet the flop and see what he does, if he c/r's then deffinitly fold, if he calls probably check behind the rest of the way? But opponents that slow play a nut hand and c/r alot is where I find most my problems.

By slowplaying he might also c/c, which is a bit annoying for whatever action we could take that involves value. The action you should take is to maximise value over his range, so in this case, if you feel you have great equity over hands he flat calls or raises with, bet for value. If you feel he only does these two things when he has a nut hand, better than yours, you should c/c as he probably bets with an entirely different part of his range (think bluffs and semibluffs). If the turn is pretty much a brick you can continue to call down with a TP type hand or one that might have good implied odds because of the bet size (OESDs, FDs etc).

Good luck at the tables!

[Santo2True]

thanks for the reply! that cleared up alot of information i was looking for. it makes a big difference when you can explain something that is going on in your mind and someone can look at it and tell you where you are thinking incorrectly. I could read all the books in the world but without someone telling me where i'm lacking in my actual thought process not much is going to change.

[JKDS]

@santo

1st: The most important part here i think was that this guy hates middle pair type hands. Dont think thats typical ofa 10/2 player...cuz i just made that read up outta my ass...but its read specific to this player.

So what can a 10/2 possibly have? 2% of hands might be like JJ+ AKs...maybe he raises those pre. limping now, well, theres quite a few hands. Id wager that most were pp type hands...but theres probably a few broadways too. Since he doesnt like middle pair type hands, him check calling on a board without any draws is gonna be pretty much only Qx, depending on what Q's u put in his range this could be a bunch of queens or only a few (like AQ only...or maybe QT+).

Betting the flop against this guy is likely a good idea, as he'll only continue with these Qx hands, and then we can just shut down pretty easily if called.

2nd time: Ok, this guy is a typical sheriff station. He doesnt like folding, and is probably looking u up with like a 5 here. I dont really expect him to fold to a flop bet...maybe he'll fold some marginals if a double barrel...but its so much easier to exploit this guy by just value towning him that im reluctant to try barrelling. If we had like Ax or something...i might bet out for value since hell floats a bit...but idk.

3rd i actually need to think about some more lolol.

other: i think u mean just raising him, cuz i hope your not 3betting an unknown super wide . So ya, this guy SEEMS to be a weak passive player right now, so this seems like a good adjustment on the fly.

Im not saying any of these are 100% right or whatnot...its just the way to think about it. What hands could he have, which fold to a bet, which call a bet, which raise a bet...which call a bet then fold to a turn etc etc etc.

[Santo2True]

that's great information right there. thank you for clearing it up for me. more notes for my book and hopefully plug up some of my leaks. next question coming soon and hope i can get some good responses to that one as well