3 barreling unknown

[tyrn]

flop was just a cbet, theres an A up there, he might fold some hands that beat me.

turn i pick up some nice outs and he looks weak, so I decide to bet again since i can fold some hands that beat me.

river, he still looks weak but i don't know if he can lay down his weak hand. he also could have an A. I think his range is wide, 66+, A2o+, 67s, 53s, 42s etc...

It just seems like by checking river i'm giving away the pot to all the hands weaker than the A, which I believe is a significant part of his range. If I'm just going to check the river on a blank, should I not be betting the turn?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) ($5)
SB ($10.07)
BB ($3.14)
UTG ($7.93)
MP ($5.90)
CO ($10.51)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, 10
UTG calls $0.05, 2 folds, Hero bets $0.20, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.47) 5, A, 4 (2 players)
UTG bets $0.05, Hero raises to $0.40, UTG calls $0.35

Turn: ($1.27) J (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.90, UTG calls $0.90

River: ($3.07) 8 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

[Sup3rM4N]

Villain is unknown. Everything you listed are assumptions. What info are you basing the range you are putting him on? Wait to acquire real information about a villain first before deciding to 3 barrel bluff so you can accurately put him on a range and what part of that range would he call you with.

[Hoopy]

Any reads or stats on your opponent? They are really important for doing stuff like this.

My experience with your average 5NL player is that if they call the turn barrel it's likely there calling a high % on the river.

[Carroters]

Looks fine as played. I doubt you have enough fold equity to bet the river. He has a weakish ace that he isn't folding way too often here.

[Sup3rM4N]

Looks fine as played. I doubt you have enough fold equity to bet the river. He has a weakish ace that he isn't folding way too often here.

I agree with the definitely checking river but I don't see the point of betting a turn without having any further info. If we had some kinda stat/info indicating he called flop cbets light and folded to double barrels then ok but the J didn't change much and its likely he'll call again if he called the flop. I'd check this turn against an unknown.

[ledfut]

after the raise is called on the flop I'm checking all the way. even if he has bottom pair he's still winning.

[JKDS]

turns fine. he only needs to fold like a ninth of his range for it to be a breakeven play.

[surviva316]

even though he's an unknown, i would be willing to put a lot of money on him having an A or better here if we got to run it out like 20 times or something.

who wants to propsament?

[rong]

I agree with the definitely checking river but I don't see the point of betting a turn without having any further info. If we had some kinda stat/info indicating he called flop cbets light and folded to double barrels then ok but the J didn't change much and its likely he'll call again if he called the flop. I'd check this turn against an unknown.

I totally agree with barrelling the turn & c/f the river. The second barrel is needed much more than it used to be (IMO). It almost seems that c-betting is the new c/r. ie everybody knows it as a "move" and so it isn't as respected. I find that people call a cbet with lots of low pocket pairs and overs cos they simply don't believe the cbet. So if you pick up a load of outs on the turn then not c-betting seems stupid to me. Especially as if villain does call and you hit on the river, he has no way of putting you on the hand you have, so there's a good chance of getting his stack.

[Micro2Macro]

after he calls this turn it seems unlikely hes going away on the river. most of his weak stuff is probably folding the turn a high % of the time so when he gets to the river his range isn't really that weak to justify firing one more.

[kmind]

so are we shoving A7 here for value?

[JKDS]

so are we shoving A7 here for value?

At first i was all liek

nooooooooooooooooo

but then i was like...well maybe

but now im like...um, i think we probably can, ya alright.

[Hoopy]

so are we shoving A7 here for value?

Shoving $3.50 into a $3.07 pot? I'd only take that line against a complete station.

[daven]

villain is a micro-stakes unknown. How do you take his money? value-betting. There are tonnes of aces in his range by the time you get to the river, and he isn't folding them.

also, flop cbet fine, check turn behind once you pick up all those outs.
river i'd be shoving AQ for value, maybe AT, definitely not A7

[d0zer]

I think AT is my cutoff for a value shove here.

Hero played fine, shutdown on river, see m2m in all his glory above.

[kmind]

Shoving $3.50 into a $3.07 pot? I'd only take that line against a complete station.

get my point though? Everyone saying that river is a clear c/f needs to realize that should mean we are much more inclined to have a wider value range including if we shove

[rong]

get my point though? Everyone saying that river is a clear c/f needs to realize that should mean we are much more inclined to have a wider value range including if we shove

Please explain this in a painfully simple way.

[kmind]

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...er-174136.html

Sorry about that. Gabe says it best in that if you can't bluff it value town it more. If you can't value town it then bluff more.

[Hoopy]

get my point though? Everyone saying that river is a clear c/f needs to realize that should mean we are much more inclined to have a wider value range including if we shove

Think I get what you mean, bluffing against a guy who will call a large % of the time is -EV, but conversely we can bet a wide range for value and get a call from weaker hands since he's not folding.

So if shoving air here is -EV, shoving a good Ax should be +EV.

[rong]

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...er-174136.html

Sorry about that. Gabe says it best in that if you can't bluff it value town it more. If you can't value town it then bluff more.

Wow!

That's great stuff.

Why isn't this on a sticky somewhere? And if it is, I must be missing some real gold in some of the stickies on here.

[rpm]

i definitely recommend people read that post who havent yet, thanks kmind

[littleogre]

op played fine. You will get a lot of made hands to fold with a 2nd barrel but once they call they are hardly ever folding to a river bet.

[littleogre]

even though he's an unknown, i would be willing to put a lot of money on him having an A or better here if we got to run it out like 20 times or something.

who wants to propsament?

Is a naked ace really gonna bet so small on the flop? I think villain has a weak under pair and is betting small because well they are betting according to the strength of there hand. They do that a lot in the micros. Second guess he has a monster like a str8 and doesn't know how to size bets. Ie he thinks that makeing small bets that will usually get called are the way to go. Final guess he has a draw and is making a awfully sized semi bet. That's my range.

[surviva316]

so are we shoving A7 here for value?

kmind, you make some valid points in this thread obv, but could you kindly explain wtf you're talking about?

Board: Ah 5c 4s Js 8h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.500% 34.62% 02.88% 36 3.00 { Ac7d }
Hand 1: 62.500% 59.62% 02.88% 62 3.00 { JJ, 55-44, AQs-A2s, KJs, 76s, 54s, AQo-A2o, KJo }

as you can see, i even threw all 12 combos of KJ in there as villain c/c'ing a shove with and we still don't have NEARLY enough value against his calling range to vbet A7. so it is both possible and ABSOLUTELY the case here that it is both the case that it is awful to shove QTs as a bluff AND that it is bad to value bet anything worse than AT like everyone has been saying.

[JKDS]

does he really ever haz JJ, 55-44 or 54 here, and AJ and AQ also seem like a bit of a stretch as well as hands like A5 and A4. Like, is this really ever a nut line from villain?

i mean i get your point that the whole "if u cant bluff, then value bet" thing doesnt really work out if you bluff too much or value bet too thin, but in the likely case that villain doesnt have any nut hands but 76 and is calling with everything he has then we could vb A7. But if he folds a good amount of that range then it does seem like we could be bluffing at least part of our range.

[kmind]

surviva - I don't have stove on this computer but I was just saying that those so quick to say we should never bluff should realize this means our value range is a lot wider then as shown in the link I posted. I never said we should value bet with A7 I was just trying to make a point. Also, I disagree with your range as JKDS pointed out.