Whether to play suited connectors

[pat3392]

I'm trying to figure out some of the mathematical sides of poker, and trying to develop some sort of systematical playing style. I know decent players will pick up on this, but I'm playing at micro stakes so I don't think this is an issue for the time being. Plus, when it becomes an issue, I can make little rules to confuse the hell out of players. I want to make some sort of system because this will help me make good plays when in difficult decisions, and let me learn from my mistakes.

Ok, here is the actual question. Trying to figure out how many chips I would have to make in order for playing suited connectors to be profitable. So, here's some lovely math

The chance of a two pair is (6*5*44 * 3)/(50*49*48) = 0.03367346939
The chance for three of a kind: 6*5*4/50*49*48=1.020408163x10^-3
The chance for a flush: 11x10x9/50x49x48=8.418367347x10-3
The chance for a straight:4x4x4/50x49x48=5.442176871x10^-4

All of these added up are .04365646259

This means that you will make a decent hand 4% of the time. Therefore, you should only call with suited connectors if you believe that you will make 25 blinds when you hit your hand. Since this is fairly high, one should only call suited low suited connectors if people are deep stacked(the question is how deep stacked) and if the table is particualry loose.

Now, they're some things to consider:
1) what if someone raises?
2) what if someone makes an even better hand than the one i make(for example, i make two pair and someone else hits a better two pair)
3) what is i made a mistake in my calculation?


So, am wondering if you guys could tell me what you guys think of this. I'm going to try to figure out other rules aswell; I'm still not sure what hands I should play, the internet tells me to play too tight in my opinion(I play at loose turbo sit and gos/multi tables)

[Erpel]

There are two ways to win money in a hand. One is by making the best hand on the river. The other is to make a bet and have the opponent fold.

There is nothing wrong with wanting to assess mathematically whether you are likely, starting with a suited connector, to hit a hand worth a big pot by the river, but looking only at that would be a mistake.

Notably you also want to know the chance of hitting a flop with a drawing hand that you can profitably semi-bluff at. And you want to assess the chance that any bluffs or semi-bluffs you make are likely to see enough folds to be profitable.

To this end you need to know opponents tendencies, put them on hand ranges, count combos and assess fold equity as well as your hand equity.

I wholeheartedly approve of trying to figure it out on your own. It is by posing your own questions and trying to figure out the answers to them that you are most likely to improve.

[EasyPoker]

I raise suited connectors from most positions if the board has been limped/folded to me.

I see no reason not to in 6-max.

[EasyPoker]

I rarely play them if I'm calling a bet, but am more inclined to do so in late position.

[MasonGamble]

I rarely play them if I'm calling a bet, but am more inclined to do so in late position.

same with me... suited connectors to me is all about position... in late position any raise will depend on player if i would call. only on a very loose player would i be willing to call and would prefer the hand heads up

i see alot of people play suited connectors very well, but i also see alot play them VERY poorly. i'm kinda inbetween and prefer to just move out of the way with them

[jyms]

http://www.grinderschool.com/articles/1.pdf

[spoonitnow]

There is a tool called Flopzilla which has a 7 day trial that will do these calculations for you with single hands or with ranges of starting hands. It's worth checking out.

So here's a question for everyone to think about regarding this since I see a lot of people going in the wrong direction on this particular point. Suppose we're 100bb deep and facing an open to 3x and we're on the button considering a call. Would we rather call against a really tight opening range, or a loose one?

[rong]

Surely really tight, ie where he's likely to have a hand he's willing to play for stacks with, therefore giving us more realistic pot odds.

[jyms]

Don't be so sure. Think about it a bit more.

[!Luck]

It really depends on how loose and how tight and more importantly, post flop tendencies. If someone is 6/6 in EP, but never check raises flop, I love it. cause then I know I can take it away on like 40% of the time. Plus add to this another 15% where we flop a decent draw. Though, it is important to realize, and I am learning this that, if he is tight and only continues with hands that connect he may likely be tight post flop meaning we really can't call a PSB on the flop, since we may not have the implied odds, even if we have stack odds. If that makes sense.

Loose players are great too but it requires more skill.

[Vinland]

Spoon:
So here's a question for everyone to think about regarding this since I see a lot of people going in the wrong direction on this particular point. Suppose we're 100bb deep and facing an open to 3x and we're on the button considering a call. Would we rather call against a really tight opening range, or a loose one?

Vs a tight range your opp will not flop a hand enough to makle the call profitable preflop. Also, they tend to make large value bets which cut down on your implied odds when you are trying to hit your OESD. SC's are worth calling in LP vs a fairly loose and aggro opp b/c they will play more hands and pay off with more hands.

The only thing I may argue is that against an ubernit playing say 5/2/2, he usually doesnt open UTG w/o a good PP and bets them to high heaven so getting the straight by the turn can be profitable, as long as nothing comes to slow down his action like an A or K if he has for instance QQ.

[jyms]

There is obvuiously a big difference between a tight range and a nit's range. The boards you need to continue vs a tight opening range are what you need to think about. What type of flops will a tight range stack off with? what type of boards are you looking to hit?

[Fielmann]

The boards you need to continue vs a tight opening range are what you need to think about. What type of flops will a tight range stack off with? what type of boards are you looking to hit?

Opponent will stack off with TPTK or better.
Loose range is {66+,ATo+,A5s+,KTo+,K9s+,QJo+,QTs+,JTs}
Tight range is {88+,AJo+,ATs+,KQs}
Our hand is 9s8s. We'll be excited about the following flops:

1) 998
tight range will have overpair, 88 more often
loose range will have have trips more often

2) three spades
tight range will have overpair, TPTK more often

3) T76
tight range will have overpair, TPTK more often
loose range will have set more often

4) A88, A98
tight range will have TPTK, set more often
loose range will have 2-pair more often

5) 993, 983
tight range will have overpair, set more often
loose range will have trips, TPTK more often

It seems to me that a player with a tight range will stack off more often.

[littleogre]

i think it goes like this when calling a raise with suited connectors
nit>loose >tight

Nits are best because well if some nit who only raises 4 percent of hands raises well he is probably ready to stack off. I think tags are the worse then loose players because they are less likely to stack off. Also lags particularly bad ones are more likely to raise or reraise us when we hit our hand.

The question i have is if you are going to 3-bet bluff say a raise from The BB when you are in the BB which one of the 3 is it best to do it against? Doing it against a nit seems like suicide. I would think the lag would be best as he is most likely to have a hand that he is willing to fold.

[spoonitnow]

You're all wrong except !luck. It depends on way more than whether they're tight or loose. If it's a tight player who can't let go of TP+, then that's probably cool. If it's a loose player who fires three streets with any piece, then that's probably cool too. On the flip side, if it's any player who folds to much aggression postflop, then that's great as well.

[littleogre]

You're all wrong except !luck. It depends on way more than whether they're tight or loose. If it's a tight player who can't let go of TP+, then that's probably cool. If it's a loose player who fires three streets with any piece, then that's probably cool too. On the flip side, if it's any player who folds to much aggression postflop, then that's great as well.

Well that's not the question that was asked. Or at least that's not the way it was worded. The question was which would you rather be against a loose or a tight player when facing a Preflop raise. Nothing was said about post flop tendencies At least not in the actual question. Even when you include post flop tendencies i still say it's better to be up against a loose pf raiser. Simply because they are more likely to stack off post flop. Both extremes can be very profitable to play against though. in short i'm kinda agreeing with you about it being important how the villain plays postflop. Just not sure that vin wanted us to think about such things. It looks to me like he wanted us to consider the question in a vaccum.

[speedcake]

So do you plan and play every hand based solely on the opponents pre flop tendencies?

Assuming a loose preflop player will stack off lightly post flop without taking into consideration his postflop play is bad.

If I tell you to jump off a cliff, will you do it? Who cares how the question was framed, use your head and don't settle for level 1 thinking. This isn't even level 1 thinking, actually. You are stuck at "hey should I call or fold this hand preflop...."

after that there is emptiness.

[oskar]

The numbers that are way more important than how often you hit a straight or 2 pair is how often you flop one pair and an inside straight draw, a pair and a flushdraw, a flushdraw and a gutshot, a gutshot with overcards, an open ended straight draw, and oesd with a flushdraw and so on. - see flopzilla or stoxcombo.

You flop lots of crap that is either easy to play and/or allows you to be very aggressive because it has some equity even against a very tight calling range.

However: You suck at poker, and you wouldn't be terribly ill advised to just leave them out of your preflop calling range for the time being. Or at least review your success with those hand ranges regularly.

[spoonitnow]

Some motherfuckers are always trying to ice-skate uphill.

[Micro2Macro]

Wow who would have thought how you play your cards will depend on your opponents tendencies! Groundbreaking news itt

[Carroters]

Guys please stop talking about complicated things like "TENDENCIES" can we focus on the original question, which i believe was: which suit is it better to have the suited connectors in?

Seriously you 2NL guys will never learn if you can't even answer that shit.

[speedcake]

I concur. And I do believe the answer is diamonds.

Because diamonds are a girl's best friend.

[tomato paste carnage]

I concur. And I do believe the answer is diamonds.

Because diamonds are a girl's best friend.

Wrong. The correct answer is clubs, if villain is a baby seal.

[Micro2Macro]

so much face palm itt

it is clearly spades.

[kiwiMark]

And this is why you'll never be good poker players, you've gotta learn to have heart...s.

[surviva316]

lol within an our this thread gets trolled upon by spoonit, speed, kiwi, m2m, carroterz and tpc.

gee, i wonder if someone posted a link the irc

[!Luck]

I thought you were smart. All the suits are the same.

[spoonitnow]

{Locked}

I think this thread has reached its potential.