call or fold versus villains 3-bet ( flopped middle pair)

[littleogre]

ok first before someone comes in saying you should never raise middle pair here are my stats



i will post the hand in a following post.

[littleogre]

PokerStars (Cash Game): $0.01/$0.02 NL, 9 players
Wed, Feb 24, 2010 04:03:54 EST
Powered by Poker Academy (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($1)
B6 ($3.20)
B5 ($7.67)
B4 ($5)
B3 ($2.81)
Hero ($1.89)
B1 ($1)
BN ($6.55)
SB ($3)

BN is the button.

Precards:
SB posts the small blind $0.01, BB posts the big blind $0.02.

Preflop: Hero is dealt 6 7 (9 active)
B6 calls $0.02, B5 raises to $0.10, B4 folds, B3 calls $0.10, Hero calls $0.10, 2 folds, SB calls $0.09, BB folds, B6 calls $0.08.

Flop: 4 7 A ($0.52, 5 active)
SB checks, B6 checks, B5 bets $0.12, B3 folds, Hero raises to $0.88, 2 folds, B5 raises to $1.64, [color=#ff8c00]

[littleogre]

ok should we call or fold to his 3-bet on the flop. This was my first time ever seeing villain and i only had around 5 hands on him so reads are scarce. A 3-bet in this spot is usually a big top pair or better of a big flush draw. Lets say TP2nd kicker + and flush draws.

[eugmac]

Errrr.... first of all why are you cold calling preflop with 76o?

Secondly how hard do you think this flop hits your B5's PF raising range? What are you trying to accomplish by raising his flop bet?

[littleogre]

ok well i guess you didn't bother to look at the pic that i posted thats shows that i'm fairly +ev raising second pair. anyway to answer your questions.
I called pf to out play them on the flop. I raised his flop bet not because i have any reads on him so i have no idea what his range is The main point is i'm in position so i'm obviously hopeing for a fold but if he calls i can fire a second bluff on the turn if he checks again if he bets i can fold assuming of course i don't hit 2pair or trips or a str8 draw. Another thing is i want charge him for draws and possible fold out 22-KK and weak aces

[littleogre]

oh and it was a multiway pot and 67 loves the multiways

[eugmac]

i did bother to look at the pic, but "Look i'm making moneys!" doesn't explain your thinking behind your plays!

Cold calling 5 bb preflop with CO and BU waiting to act, with 76o still seems really loose to me.

So are you raising the flop basically to "see where you're at"? Do you really think he'll fold any A here?

[littleogre]

i did bother to look at the pic, but "Look i'm making moneys!" doesn't explain your thinking behind your plays!

Cold calling 5 bb preflop with CO and BU waiting to act, with 76o still seems really loose to me.

So are you raising the flop basically to "see where you're at"? Do you really think he'll fold any A here?

Yes i think a lot of villains will fold weak aces here. stars is full of nits. I also think i can fold out 77-kk here enough to make the play +ev. Really i'm only scared versus 2 pair+ type hands. Your right though showing a profit over a significant sample does not tell anything but it does show the person must be doing something right in that spot.

[littleogre]

oh and i think calling his flop raise would be terrible in this spot. It's a raise or fold as far as i'm concerned

[littleogre]

oh and thanks for actually looking at my stats.

[Belt]

Your right though showing a profit over a significant sample does not tell anything but it does show the person must be doing something right in that spot.

Actually when I look at your stats I see a guy who has 100K hands of 2NL. He must be doing something wrong...

The reason may be you like to flat 76o against UTG+1 opener because

it was a multiway pot and 67 loves the multiways

Your stats must be like 28/8 or something... Don't you see any problem with that?

[sil693]

this is pretty terrible on many a level.

[littleogre]

Actually when I look at your stats I see a guy who has 100K hands of 2NL. He must be doing something wrong...

The reason may be you like to flat 76o against UTG+1 opener because


Your stats must be like 28/8 or something... Don't you see any problem with that?

Yea i'm loseing a lot of money in the sb. That's probably my biggest leak
but no my stats are not 28/8

[littleogre]

oh and i think it's funny that i post a type of play and show stats to prove that it is a long term winning play and these are the replies that i get. I even go through the trouble to explain why it's a winning play. We seem to have a lot of hard headed people around here. I didn't even ask whether my original raise was good or not. I all ready know that it is over the long term. Even more funny is the fact that nobody has even bothered to comment on my actual question.

[littleogre]

Actually when I look at your stats I see a guy who has 100K hands of 2NL. He must be doing something wrong...

The reason may be you like to flat 76o against UTG+1 opener because


Your stats must be like 28/8 or something... Don't you see any problem with that?

of and an ep raiser is exactly the guy you want to
play 67 against. As the raises come from earlier positions your implied odds go up.

[sil693]

rather than continuously saying "my stats say i am good at this", why not try and figure out why nobody that has replied to this thread agrees with what you are saying?

[eugmac]

of and an ep raiser is exactly the guy you want to
play 67 against. As the raises come from earlier positions your implied odds go up.

You're hugely underestimating the implied odds required to make cold calling with a small UNSUITED connector profitable... and please don't show more graphs showing how the play has worked out for you because you're a post-flop genius reader of souls.

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ds-118394.html

quoting from that old thread

When looking to add hands to your play, I think focusing on hole cards so much is the wrong approach.

For what it's worth, if I think someone has a hand, I won't call with a SC unless I'm getting 40:1 or better. For the most part, I'm not a see a flop and try to hit something kind of guy. Hold'em just doesn't like to play like that.

[JKDS]

oh and i think it's funny that i post a type of play and show stats to prove that it is a long term winning play and these are the replies that i get. I even go through the trouble to explain why it's a winning play. We seem to have a lot of hard headed people around here. I didn't even ask whether my original raise was good or not. I all ready know that it is over the long term. Even more funny is the fact that nobody has even bothered to comment on my actual question.

1) 500 hands is NOT evidence of a long term winning play, and regardless, this specific situation is not equal to the sum of many other situations. For instance, the times youve decided to raise the flop with middle pair in a 9 way pot are much less likely to be profitable than the times you've done it in a HU pot.

2) your reasoning is meh. I have a hard time believing raising here is ideal considering its 5way. for all you know mr sb/bb is trapping utg+1 because thats what bad players like to do but no information concerning them has even been mentioned. In fact, I think im the first person to mention that it is indeed a 5way pot, so im thinking there are some results orientedness going on due to seeing them c/f instead of c/r.

3) Actually raising if we were HU now, im kinda mixed on. Bluffing would be +EV because we do expect him to fold alot, and if he does raise and then cbet small then fold to a raise with 77-kk then we really arent risking much to win the pot. Im mixed about doing it with middle pair though. If we had KT on like a AK2r board then id hate it...but im not really sure. I stand by point 2 though.

4) As to the original question, ummm fold? Bluff gets raised --> fold. Your gonna come back and say we're getting 4:1 but sadly, middle pair doesnt have 20% equity against the range hes raising with. Honestly though, getting 15% as opposed to the needed 20% isnt really gonna matter in the grand scheme of things and we'll probably get it back if you can exploit an image of "that guy raises and calls down with 76o!". So really, do what you want here.

5) Different point that wasnt quoted, 76s plays well multiway. 76o doesnt and you need really bad players to pull it off. Also, we cant call an utg raise and say its because we get huge implied odds (since hes utg and range is tight) and then say that we expect him to fold most of his range on a A hi flop. Its contradictory, and ties in with points 2 and 3.

[spoonitnow]

Fold pre-flop, put your opponent on a range on the flop, read http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ll-173396.html to decide if you're calling the shove.

[mcatdog]

I called pf to out play them on the flop.

So did you outplay him?

[Muzzard]

][IMG=http://i.imgur.com/tyS4T.gif]
keep raising middle pair! keep grindin out that 2nl!

I have not worked out how to poast pics on this new forum

[Keith]

keep raising middle pair! keep grindin out that 2nl!

I have not worked out how to poast pics on this new forum


FOR Muzzard

[Keith]

looking at 67o in my database playing 6 max I'm losing $31.51 or 21.48 bb/100 mostly down to blinds..I don't play it at 6max except when stealing so why do you need to get fancy and try to outplay people with it at 2NL full ring?

To beat 2NL set mine , nut camp and get the money in. No one at 2NL is folding an Ace preflop and they sure as hell aren't folding it when they hit the pair on the flop. trying to get them to fold is pure spew.If you want to continue to outplay your opponents with marginal holding fine , stay trying to outplay them at 2NL , much better if you start to use a strategy that will beat the level and leave the fancy play out of your game.

[eragotte]

in before lock?

what jkds said, this is awful, start learning why soon or another 100k at 2nl is coming right up. start thinking about the 'why?' a hell of a lot more please. now button mash a call or fold, ev is similar.

[EasyPoker]

I fold an occasional ace preflop

[surviva316]

there are just so so so so so many things wrong with your defense of the flop (without even addressing preflop) that i won't even be able to cover them all. here's a few though:

2nl'ers aren't nits regardless of site.

and an unknown leading into a 5-way pot for 1/3 the pot prolly is going to be some drooler who's not folding an A.

and even if he IS a nit, then his EP range is re-fuckin'-diculously strong on this board.

and even if he does have every A in the world AND he's folding them all (which is a near impossible combination of circumstances imo), picking middle pair to bluff with is a terrible choice. because we're putting his continuing range on two pair+, meaning that we have like two fucking outs when he continues. i mean if our range is wide enough for continuing preflop to include garbage like 76o, then surely there are plenty of hands we can rebluff with that actually have outs. so in other words, even if this impossible combo exists, you're choosing the absolute wrong range to rebluff with.

the sizing is so bad. surely you can't rebluff off half your stack and then not know what to do when he shoves because now we're committed. you could always just raise to like .55, which would be PLENTY!!!! where did you even get .88 from?

ANYWAY, so what, you made a bad play, that's not what's making all the responses so on edge. the refusal to even listen to the possibility that you might be wrong is what is so aggrevating

[Keith]

ok well i guess you didn't bother to look at the pic that i posted thats shows that i'm fairly +ev raising second pair. anyway to answer your questions.

Isn't your stats completely irrelevant, Filtering for second pair totally ignores whether you are betting it in position or out of position , It also ignores how good your second pair is and whether you have combo draws to go with it. Its a bit like looking outside and its not raining so you go for a walk without a coat , and totally ignoring the fact that upwind from you its thundering and lighting . Then having got hom e drenched to the skin saying , look at the last week I've been for a walk every day when it wasn't raining and didn't get wet. You have to consider everything not just one fact.

I called pf to out play [get owned if an ace ht the flop and one of my crappy cards paired the flop as well]them on the flop. I raised his flop bet not because i have any reads on him so i have no idea what his range is

You say stars is full of nits , this guy raised pre UTG you dont have to be a genius to think that theres a good chance he's got 66+,AQ+

The main point is i'm in position so i'm obviously hopeing for a fold but if he calls i can fire a second bluff on the turn if he checks again if he bets i can fold assuming of course i don't hit 2pair or trips or a str8 draw.
Another thing is i want charge him for draws and possible fold out 22-KK and weak aces

Surely if you put him on a range there arent going to be that many draws in his UTG range on this flop he's more likely to be on an overpair to you , set or TP GK . Against his likely holdings you are not in good shape at all, you are risking half your stack with your raise and saying that you are willing to rebluff the turn as well to win the 64 cents in the pot before you acted. You only put 10c into that , and should cut your losses there(actually folding pre would cut all losses), not go risking your stack against a continuing range that has you crushed.

Another thing , why after 104000 hands haven't you got auto top up enabled on stars, You are limiting your gains when you do actually have a good hand and flop a monster ,even more so if you buy in for the maximum 5$ and nut camp and stack those other big stacks. This doesn't mean buying in for the maximum and trying to bluff with an even bigger shove though.

oh and it was a multiway pot and 67 loves the multiways

with 67 loving multiway , its not for the times that it flops second pair, its for the times it flops straight draws and flush draws so that you can likely stack an opponent. 67o is going to be useless when it makes a flush because you are unlikely to have the best flush at that stage , that is why its 67s that loves multiway , you are not going to win very often with it but if you can see a cheap flop and flop a huge draw / monster chances are because its multiway that you will be playing not just for 1 stack but several players stacks , if you miss fold and forget about it because as its multiway the chances of having the best hand now and at showdown are minimal.

oh and i think it's funny that i post a type of play and show stats to prove that it is a long term winning play and these are the replies that i get. I even go through the trouble to explain why it's a winning play. We seem to have a lot of hard headed people around here. I didn't even ask whether my original raise was good or not. I all ready know that it is over the long term. Even more funny is the fact that nobody has even bothered to comment on my actual question.

I dealt with the stats being inappropriate earlier. The problems arose preflop and your actions from that point compounded the initial error. As for the question you bluffed , he aint reraising you with a hand you beat so calling is spew.

[Donachello]

Listen to spoon. /thread

PS. 500 hand sample is tiny. (yes I realize it's a 100k hand sample but you filtered for 500).
PPS. Playing 2nd pair 100% of the time is -EV.

[spoonitnow]

{Locked}

This is going to get ugly if I don't go ahead and do this now.

Fold pre-flop, put your opponent on a range on the flop, read http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ll-173396.html (<--link) to decide if you're calling the shove.

I know you said you put your opponent on a range, but you didn't analyze the call in the context of the range following the link I gave you above. Go do that and it will make this much clearer. Best of luck.