help on pot odds and EV

[mbiz]

hi

My understanding is that if the price of calling vs pot size is below the pot odds for your outs, then its +ev. is this correct? and do you use the pot value before or after your (potential) call?

If it is correct, then there's something else im unclear about:

You are on say a flush draw from the flop with odds of about 34% and villain does a bet which is +ev for you, you call, you dont hit on the turn. Now the villain bets again, and your pot odds are about halved and the call is -ev. How can the first call have been +ev at 34% if its only effective for the turn?

thanks

[bjsaust]

Two questions so

1: Pot size prior to your call, compared with how much you need to call. So in a basic situation if theres a $1 pot after the flop and on the turn your villain bets $1, then theres a $2 pot and you need to call $1, so your pot odds are 2:1 (you win $2 when you win and lose $1 when you lose).


2: As far as pot odds go, unless all (or most) of the money goes in on the flop, then your pot odds should be compared to your chance of improving on 1 card only, not 2. If theres a $1 pot on the flop, and your villain bets $1 giving you 2:1 odds, you need to be 2:1 to hit on the turn, because as you point out, there could be more to pay later in the hand.

Thats alleviated a bit by implied odds though. Implied odds are your chance of making more money then whats in the pot when you hit. So if you made your flush on the turn after calling without odds, as long as you make enough more money on the turn/river to make up for it, then it was +EV with implied odds.

[mbiz]

oh ok. so in answer 1. id need 50% chance to hit my out....
OR a better hand than im putting him on

this makes me think of another question..do pot odds calculations like this only apply if you put them on a stronger hand and need outs (and also when you want to disrupt their pot odds)?

edit: hows ballarat going? I used to live in bendigo (melb now)

[bjsaust]

No, you only need to be 33% to hit your out, because:

2 times you lose $1 and 1 time you win $2. Remember its 2:1, not 1/2, different things.

The main time you use pot odds other than when drawing, is on the river itself (in fact in NLHE implied odds usually mean a lot more). On the river, thats where ranges come in. Lets take the same example but on the river, so no more hands to come. $1 pot and villain bets $1. You dont need to be 50% to win against his range to call, you only need to be 33% to win to be neutral EV.

[Stacks]

No in (1) you would need 33% chance to hit your out, or better said, you need 33% equity. This can be determined numerous way. If you know the odds you need to make the call you simply take the right side of the ratio and divide that by the sum of both sides. So if you have 2:1, you need 1 / (2+1) or 1/3 = 33% equity.

No you don't only calculate pot odds when you put them on a stronger hand. You factor pot odds anytime you are faced with a bet. Whether you have a drawing hand or not. See, when villain bets an amount, and you consider your pot odds a call is going to be profitable whenever you hand has greater equity against villains range than the pot odds you are being offered.

A common scenario where you consider pot odds and you dont have a draw is when villain bets into you on the river. Say he bets half pot giving you 3:1 pot odds, meaning that in order for a call to be breakeven you need 25% equity (1/4). Well if you figure that he bets worse hands 25% of the time or more, then a call is BE, and should be made (unless you can raise for value, or a bluff raise is more profitable).

[Stacks]

Holy shit... Can me and bj's responses be any closer to the same thing?

[mbiz]

oh ok thanks guys, this is fantastic help.

I need a bit of time to run it through the intricate system of cogs and gears in my brain though so no further questions heh.

[mbiz]

Ok so if i have this correct, here's me (conveniently) on a flush draw 30min ago. After the turn he bets 0.40 to make the pot $1.82. This would make my pot odds 22%. Meaning without a read i should fold just(19.6% to hit a heart) right? I called anyway (sorry) and it payed off which brings me to my next question...

whats the best bet on the river? A bluff-like all-in to maximise? or a small may-as-well-call bet to extract a bit more money and show my hand off.... i think my $1 was a bit clumsy neither here nor there

Was my 40c bet on the flop good or bad. i like to try and push villain off on the value of my draw sometimes, is this a bad idea?

Also, what do you put him on? I was thinking high cards or a middish pair like TT..
from what i could tell he was sorta loose (previous all in cold bluff on A J with nothing on the board for him)


MP1 ($10.45)
Hero (MP2) ($4.93)
MP3 ($2.08)
CO ($2.08)
Button ($2.85)
SB ($10)
BB ($4.32)
UTG ($6.62)
UTG+1 ($9.78)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Ah, Qh.
Hero bets $0.20
Button calls $0.20
BB calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.62) 8c 8h, 5h
(3 players) BB checks, Hero bets $0.40,Button calls $0.40, [

Turn: ($1.42) 2c
(2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $0.40, Hero calls $0.40

River: ($2.22) 3h
(2 players)
Hero bets $1, 1 fold

Total pot: $2.22 | Rake: $0.10

edit: put it into hand converter but ftr wont let me include urls till 10posts so had to deconvert bits..

[Stacks]

Actually... On the turn when villain bets the pot is now $1.82, and you must call $0.40. So you are getting 1.82:0.4 pot odds, or 4.55:1. A flush draw with one card to card is approximately 4:1 against hitting, meaning you are getting the appropriate pot odds to make a call on the turn, assuming you are ONLY drawing to a flush draw. Which is likely not the case always, as your Ace or Queen might be good some % of the time.

Another way to do the math is like so. To determine the equity you need to have a breakeven turn call, consider the formula (bet) / (pot + bet). In this case the bet you must call is $0.40, and the pot is $1.82 (pot after villain bets). So the formula would be setup as (0.40) / (1.82 + 0.40) or .4/2.22 = 18%. This means you need 18% to make a call breakeven on the turn.

Even if we know villain has A8 here, a call will be breakeven based on pot odds. However, it will be +EV based on implied odds, as we expect to get some value out of the villain on later streets.

[Fielmann]

After the turn he bets 0.40 to make the pot $1.82. This would make my pot odds 22%. Meaning without a read i should fold just(19.6% to hit a heart) right?

I suggest you stop calculating pot odds in percentages and start thinking about them in "1:x format". It just makes more sense.

In your example the pot odds are 0.4:1.82 or about 1:4.5. The odds for hitting your flush are 1:4 so it's an easy call.

Note: If the pot odds had been, say, 1:3.5 or even 1:3 you still could have made a call for two reasons:

1. You normally have some implied odds. (In this example it turns out you didn't, but you couldn't have known that.)
2. There's some chance your hand is already the best.

whats the best bet on the river? A bluff-like all-in to maximise? or a small may-as-well-call bet to extract a bit more money and show my hand off....

This is a very good question. I can only say that it depends.

i think my $1 was a bit clumsy neither here nor there

The pot odds you offered for your opponent were 1:3.2. These were really good odds for him. So your bet was definitely on the small side.

Was my 40c bet on the flop good or bad. i like to try and push villain off on the value of my draw sometimes, is this a bad idea?

I wouldn't have bet.

1. With two other players in the pot (at least one of them loose) you don't have very much fold equity.
2. Your bet may have stopped the button from firing a large bet (you say he likes to do it), but you have so many outs (and your hand may already be the best), that you could even have called his all-in on the flop.

Also, what do you put him on? I was thinking high cards or a middish pair like TT..

1. People also call preflop with Ax, low pairs, even suited connectors.
2. Middle pairs would have raised on the flop.

I do probabilities in percentages, wanna fight about it?

[Fielmann]

I do probabilities in percentages, wanna fight about it?

So in the example above you would do:

odds for flush: 20%

Pot-odds:
0.40 / (1.82 + 0.40) = 18%

18% < 20%

call!

?

I'm not going to fight about it, it just seems more complicated. And the fact that most articles and threads explain it differently would make it confusing for a new player.

[Luco]

I do percentages too...

I do probabilities in percentages, wanna fight about it?

So in the example above you would do:

odds for flush: 20%

Pot-odds:
0.40 / (1.82 + 0.40) = 18%

18% < 20%

call!

?

I'm not going to fight about it, it just seems more complicated. And the fact that most articles and threads explain it differently would make it confusing for a new player.

pokerstove gives percentages so that's what I do

[bjsaust]

I do both, maybe I'm weird...

[Stacks]

I do both, maybe I'm weird...

this. In the hand I could say "I'm getting >4:1, so I call". Or I could say, "I need 18% to call, I have more equity than that, I call".

[mbiz]

how do you calc your outs in ratio format?

[Luco]

how do you calc your outs in ratio format?

(100 / odds of hitting) - 1

So a 20% chance is (100/20)-1 = 4 to 1 odds

[Robb]

I do both, maybe I'm weird...

this. In the hand I could say "I'm getting >4:1, so I call". Or I could say, "I need 18% to call, I have more equity than that, I call".

I use both. I tend to think in odds format on the flop where stacks and implied odds are more of a factor. By the turn, I'm using percentages almost always.

And I'm pretty sure when it comes to poker maths, I'm weird.

[Stacks]

how do you calc your outs in ratio format?

(100 / odds of hitting) - 1

So a 20% chance is (100/20)-1 = 4 to 1 odds

This. Or, you can take the number of cards left in the deck and compare that with the number of cards that will help you. For instance, say you have a 9 out draw on the flop and you are considering you outs in ratio form. There are 47 unknown cards in the deck. 9 of those cards help you, whereas the other 38 do not. So your odds of hitting is 38:9 or approx 4.2:1.

I just 2x it and get 18%
pretty close actually

[Extremophile]

So if you put yourself on your opponent's position, if he wants you to call and hopes to make a profit he should make a bet that results in a litlle worse pot odds than the persentage of winning for the opponent So, if he bets 0.55c, it makes 23% odds for the opponent which is close to 20% and not scary for the opponent to call.