Bluffing strategy

[Hit_it&enjoy]

Suppose I've got QQ IP and it's checked to me on an Ac,Js,8h,Kd board and villain has shown weakness preflop-turn. I estimate the opponent will fold 1:2 times to a $13 bet into $18 pot, then I know that it is +EV to bluff. Adversely if I estimate the opponent will fold only 1:3 times then it's -EV.
What is the thought process that mid to high stakes regs go through to estimate these percentages?
Not so sure if this is a good example but I hope you get the gist.

you also forget that sometimes while bluffing would be EV+, checking would also be EV+ and might have a higher EV

regarding your question: you can estimate which hands people will fold and estimate what % of the cards they hold are those hands
does the villain hold an 8? a J? a K? an A? if so, does he fold those hands?
Say he will fold anything but the ace or better, then our bluff won't work if he has Ax, JJ, 88, KK, QT, J8, K8 and he'll fold other Kx
based on the preflop action we might say he's less likely to have some of the hands or more likely to have some of the hands
but of course you haven't given us the preflop action and stack sizes and other information

[JKDS]

Im not a mid to high stakes reg, but this isnt something done by just them so i feel justified in answering the question.

they're estimated by range analysis. For example, suppose we had the same board, and based on reads and tracker info we know that villain can only have {QT, 22} here. What happens if we bet? Well, QT will at least call, regardless of the amount. So we are estimating how often 22 folds. Suppose we bet our 13 into 18. Then, unless villain is weird, 22 will fold. Ok, so was our bet profitable? Well, there are more combinations of QT than there are of 22, so he will end up calling more times than folding. In fact, since there are 16 combos of QT and 6 combos of 22, we estimate the odds villain calls as 16:6 (2.67:1) or 16/22 = 72% of the time. Well fuck, our bet is -ev.

We apply this kind of thinking (hopefully i didnt screw up any of the mental math there) to larger, more realistic ranges in order to determine if a bluff may be +ev. Of course, in this example i said 22 always folds and QT always calls. In reality, villains never "always" do the same thing with a hand. For instance, if he could also have KQ, he might call 50% of the time. We would then have to evaluate that into our calculations.

Last thing, if we determine that a bluff is in fact +ev, we might then be concerned with weather a check could potentially be ++ev. This would take into account how often villain might try to bluff us back with a worse hand. For example...

Suppose we have KK on a A22 board rainbow. We are first to act and villain has a semirealistic range of {AQ+, 77-QQ}. We also know that villain always folds his pocketpairs if an ace hits the flop and we bet out. Is it profitable to bluff? Probably, there are more combinations of 77-QQ than AQ+ (36 compared to 18), so we should be able to find a bet that is +ev. BUT, suppose we also know that if we check, then villain will bet pot with his entire range. Well...then we should check because it would be more ev to collect bluffs from his 77-QQ range (and lose to value from his AQ+ range) than it would be to just fold out this range.

I used some convenient assumptions here, but this type of thinking applys to more than just this particular villain.

[Hit_it&enjoy]

Thanks for your responses, and yes I do agree that checking is also +EV.
Perhaps it's a combo of feel and experience when you gain the ability to guesstimate accurately an opponents percentage for folding (in relation to their range).

[swiggidy]

What is the thought process that mid to high stakes regs go through to estimate these percentages?
Not so sure if this is a good example but I hope you get the gist.

Thinking like mid->HS players is -eV
Trying to apply mid->HS concepts at micros is -eV
Just don't bluff, after 10-20k hands you'll start to see spots where it's profitable.

Since you're asking a turn/river question it's all about reads. If you don't collect this information bluffing is prob -eV, if you do collect it the answer will be trivial.

[daven]

^^^ what they said!
assign ranges, then use your reads to estimate actions villain will take with each range subset, then compare ev of each of your possible actions, then you have an answer to your question.

Now learn to do this accurately while multi-tabling

then profit.

at micros, value-betting >>> than bluffing (other than c-betting)

What is the thought process that mid to high stakes regs go through to estimate these percentages?
Not so sure if this is a good example but I hope you get the gist.

Thinking like mid->HS players is -eV
Trying to apply mid->HS concepts at micros is -eV
Just don't bluff, after 10-20k hands you'll start to see spots where it's profitable.

Since you're asking a turn/river question it's all about reads. If you don't collect this information bluffing is prob -eV, if you do collect it the answer will be trivial.

you can play the turn and river without reads
I mean what do you do, c/f against an unknown on the turn?

also, bluffing at the micros is not EV-, it's the lack of understanding of ranges / board texture that's EV-

a lot of the time at the micros you'll be at the river with a busted draw, but your opponent has like 50% busted draws in his range
it's a SIN not to bet like 1/2 pot to make him fold his ace high or whatever
even though you'll be getting these wtf calls by third pair some of the time, if he has a busted draw at least 25% of the time we're breaking even, more than that we're winning money

[daven]

here's a hand decision example.
Villain is 26-6 over 200 hands. He has low aggression, like super-low.
I don't think he would turn lead a jack. He has 80% fold to cbet, so cbetting probably is smartest here. But I didn't.
Anyway, this hand is for range and decision practice - should i bet or check river. Am i betting for value? or bluffing?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($100)
BB ($99)
UTG ($87.50)
UTG+1 ($98)
MP1 ($26.85)
MP2 ($46.95)
MP3 ($97.90)
CO ($94.45)
Hero (Button) ($110.25)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 10, A
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $1, 4 folds, Hero bets $4.50, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls $3.50

Flop: ($10.50) J, 8, 5 (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($10.50) 6 (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks

River: ($10.50) 10 (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, so, decision time

you'd be betting for value since he could call you with worse
but he doesn't have that much worse other than T9 type of hands

if you think he'd check a bad jack down to the river, then you kind of can't bet unless you think he'd lead it on the river
the board is kind of terrible since a backdoor flush got there, and you can't rule out that he might think you would check a flush draw down to bet it when it comes
of course he can have hands like 79 and other crap like that that just got a straight

but I don't know if we necessarily have enough information, some people call in this spot with a five or 77
so I'm most concerned with his calling range
if his calling range (of things we beat) is like 57s, 67s, 77, 99, 22-44 that's 3+3+6+6+18 = 36 combos
his calling range of things we lose to is JT, QJ, KJ, AJ = 9 + 12 + 12 + 9 = 42 combos
his raising range is all kinds of crap, but it doesn't matter because his calling range that beats us is already bigger (unless he leads hands like AJ on the river which we will have to calculate differently then)

but as you can see, there's really nothing that he can have other than random ace high calldowns that would make it EV+
even then, he's going to have hands that are worth a raise a lot and he might c/r a straight on the river because he hopes that you'll bluff after it got checked through 3 times