Fold AK on KJxxJ board?

[Robb]

Villain is lagg, 55/25/4.5. He's capable of stacking off with 2nd pair, but I just don't see anything but J's and sets by the river. Some busted flush draws, I guess, but wouldn't they fold to a turn raise? Thoughts?

$0.05/$0.1 No Limit Holdem
4 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
Hero ($12.06)
BTN ($9.32)
SB ($21.98)
BB ($12.59)

Pre-flop: ($0.15, 4 players) Hero is CO
Hero raises to $0.35, 1 fold, SB calls $0.30, BB calls $0.25

Flop: ($1.05, 3 players)
SB bets $0.10, BB calls $0.10, Hero raises to $1.02, SB calls $0.92, BB folds

Turn: ($3.19, 2 players)
SB bets $1, Hero raises to $3.59, SB calls $2.59

River: ($10.37, 2 players)
SB bets $5, Hero ??

[Results Hidden]

[martindcx1e]

if he's a calling station then why raise the flop? or have you already seen him min-lead into pfr's and fold to raises? as played, i don't think you can call that river.

[Pelion]

He's capable of stacking off with 2nd pair

But not KQ, KT, K9, K8....etc?

[bjsaust]

No. This looks sooo much like a draw to me. Those bets scream blocking bets to me. I call river.

[bigspenda73]

you let his turn bet size manipulate your raise size

[speedcake]

Sick river. Villain easily has a J when he calls your flop raise. By the river you've bloated the pot but aren't getting very good odds to call. Have you seen him/her bluff at busted draws? IMO fold until you get a better read for this spot.

But then again I'm terrible

[daven]

i dislike flop and turn play.
Flat flop.
As played bet turn harder.

[Robb]

Thanks guys. I folded, and he didn't show. But I appreciate the advice on where I screwed up.

[bigspenda73]

he's a 4.5 and plays 55% of his hands and you folded?

you're over thinking things

[Robb]

he's a 4.5 and plays 55% of his hands and you folded?

you're over thinking things

Over-correction.

One of my biggest leaks is bad "hero" calls on the river. I'm trying to think through ranges/reads before committing half my stack. But I was pretty sure I got too weak tight here.

Thanks for the help.

[lolzzz_321]

you play @ UB, right? Superuser IMO

[Robb]

you play @ UB, right? Superuser IMO

LoL.

[BigPapi]

I call here for sure. I really think we're ahead here considering how the hand played out (especially the low blocking bets on flop/turn and I just dont see him playing a lot of hands with a jack in it like this) and if you dont think we're ahead, you only need to win 1 in 4 here with the money invested, which I'm quite sure you will against him in this situation

I do not agree with the flop raise against this guy as mentioned by others.

[martindcx1e]

I just dont see him playing a lot of hands with a jack in it like this

why not?

[sarbox68]

you play @ UB, right? German Super User Bot IMO

FYP

[ponyboy]

I fold unfortunately because you have already invested a lot in this hand. That bet size is giving you the right odds to call, which is precisely what he wants. IMO he probably had two hearts, one of them being the jack.

[BigPapi]

I just dont see him playing a lot of hands with a jack in it like this

why not?

usually when you have a jack you want to bet for value on this board against flush draws, worse pairs etc. especially on the flop you will get called a lot by hands you're ahead of. Also it makes your opponent pay for seeing the turn if he is on a draw. especially on a drawy board like this

If we look at the the way the hand is played I therefor doubt that he has a jack (if you have 2 hearts with one of them the jack of hearts, I would even want to get the money in quicker). There is off course a possibility he has it, but there are more hands in the range of a 4,5 af (especially one who plays this many hands!) and I think (if you want exact % just pokerstove) we'll get the 25% we need easily here.

Also understand that if we think we have the odds to call we therefor must. We either have the odds to call or dont based on our assesment of his range. If we think we have the odds to call but dont because we think he has us beat, we've probably formed a wrong range for opp. in the first place when calculating our odds.

[Fnord]

Flop raise is total spew.

This looks a lot like one pair, probably Jx to me, although it sounds like a lot of other shit are in his range too.

Tough spot. Stop building pots with overs. Stop being so stubborn when you raise pre-flop.

Against terrible players playing your hand face up sometimes makes everything easier. He knows what you have and you get to see what he thinks about that...

Flop raise is total spew.

This looks a lot like one pair, probably Jx to me, although it sounds like a lot of other shit are in his range too.

Tough spot. Stop building pots with overs.

I was going to say that, but it's a minbet so I'm just tempted to cbet like he never bet at all. This works better on ace-high flops because some villains think "I'll put in a small bet and he'll fold KQ/underpair since I'm repping an ace" and I just raise them anyway

but yeah, if he was betting like a 9xx flop he probably thinks you have missed overcards, but Jxx flop he's MOST likely to have top pair, moreso than Axx or 9xx since if he didn't have the jack he wouldn't expect you to fold anything you raised with

[bigteif]

i call river I'm he's prob got a flush draw or straight draw. I guess jacks are in his range. But I think you have enough of his range beat to call. Your calling $5 in to $15 so you only have to win 25% of the time to break even. I think with a donk min bet right there a big part of his range is like a K4,K9. Maybe even worse. I guess a Jack hit here and QT but T8 doesn't hit. If your winning 27% of the time here it's a profitable call.

[bigspenda73]

iopq cbetting this flop anyways would be bad

[Fnord]

iopq cbetting this flop anyways would be bad

With guy who doesn't fold in the mix, it's not a high value bet. Once he shows interest in the pot, it's usually not for sale.

well he made his commitment decision on the turn so river should be a snapcall since after that turn raise he has to think "I'm calling a shove since I put in 1/3 of my stack into the pot"

[Robb]

well he made his commitment decision on the turn so river should be a snapcall since after that turn raise he has to think "I'm calling a shove since I put in 1/3 of my stack into the pot"

I can't find the thread where Spoon said it, but he basically challenged the "pot commitment" notion. He said "you are never pot committed in cash games."

While I don't think I played the hand correctly, I don't like the idea of "snap calling" the river because I made a stupid play earlier and got "pot committed." If I'm calling the river, it's gonna be because I think at least 25% of his range is "air" that I can beat.

I personally think he had a J or a set, based on how he bet some other hands he did show down. But he could have had a busted FD too. Spenda's probably right and I shoulda called. But that's why I didn't.

[Fnord]

He said "you are never pot committed in cash games."

This is a function of your opponent's range.

I get the "don't be lazy and put money in bad" thing. But when your pot equity is > than an all-in/river call, you're pot committed. Actually, I think it's backwards because in cash if you go broke, you rebuy or find a better game.

I see too many WTF hands to make big laydowns to all but the most predictable players. Folding too much is much eaiser to exploit then sticking to a pretty good hand or making educated guesses on when to calldown lukewarm.

[Fnord]

I personally think he had a J or a set, based on how he bet some other hands he did show down. But he could have had a busted FD too. Spenda's probably right and I shoulda called. But that's why I didn't.

You just got to go with what you think and be ok with that either way.

I mean here you're not too happy about being commited. Had he checked the river you'd check as well. And if he shoved you're not happy about calling, but the pot is already bigger than your stack.

But he didn't even shove, you need to be 25% for the call to be EV+. Watch him show you 94soooted here some of the time.

[Fnord]

Had he checked the river you'd check as well.

I don't.

[GHOST 24 7]

Well my view is if he had a jack he would have folded on the turn he was drawing dead you should have called but in mini stakes the money isn't enough for someone to really judge wut he has u reraised pretty good but folding on the river was not a good idea with two pair jacks and kings I put him on a heart draw who missed just my view

Had he checked the river you'd check as well.

I don't.

I would bet the river had he checked if the king was on the flop, he just doesn't have that many kings in his range other than Kh

but I mean we're not afraid of a raise since we have a pot in our stack, so if we beat 51% of his calling range we should shove river

I just think that his range is a lot of flush draws, he's tried to blocking bet two streets so I don't think he has a lot of hands that would check/call river

Please tell me if I'm completely off-base