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going pro: how often can one have a losing week? (MATH)
I just quit my job to play poker full time (again).
I thought about how often I can take a big loss and decided to do some calculations. I figured the ideal situation would be to only take a losing week 1 in 10 weeks. Knowing this would be unlikely, but possible, I did the math.
I took all the data from a recent PT DB i made for a smaller site (41k hands).
so the question is, "How many hours do I have to play per week to only lose 1 in 10 weeks?"
What I'm looking for is a distribution with a lower bound(LB) of 0 at mean-40%, so
z=1.28
WR = 2 (2ptbb/100)
stdev = 26.3679 (standard deviation for bb/100 hands)
LB = WR - z * stdev / sqrt(N)
N will be the number of 100-hand increments I'll have to play per week.
0 = 2 - 1.28 * 26.3679 / sqrt(N)
N = 284.7808
at 500 hands/hour I'd have to play 56.9562 hours per week. For me that would be burnout city.
I posted this for 2 reasons, 1 is to get feedback and make sure I did the math right. 2 is to contribute something, as messy as it is, it might give some perspective to players who think about going pro.
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