Hand Reading 4 Noobs, Part IV

[Robb]

REGS, DON'T PWN THE THREAD TIL TUESDAY!!!

Edit: Villain is 12/9/1.9

Noobs and micro ballas, please take a shot at putting villain on a range and narrowing it each street. Say what Hero should do on the turn and why.

$0.1/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
8 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($22.34)
Hero ($30.94)
MP1 ($15.83)
MP2 ($13.05)
CO ($33.22)
BTN ($2.90)
SB ($13.12)
BB ($3.83)

Pre-flop: ($0.35, 8 players) Hero is UTG 1
UTG raises to $0.85, Hero raises to $2.9, 6 folds, UTG calls $2.05

Flop: ($6.15, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $3.5, UTG calls $3.5

Turn: ($13.15, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero ??

BTW, I'm not a great hand reader, so I post hands in these "4 noobs" threads where the correct read and play are pretty obvious, and where I did the read + math (at least estimated) in my head while playing the hand. I post hands where it's likely noobs will get something out of it, but regs are probably not going to find it challenging.

[tom]

UTG puts in a std raise pf, depending on reads on the player, against an unknown I'd say AQo+, AJs+, TT+, maybe KQs

Flat calling the 3bet you can throw out AJs and KQs. I think most others call here.

The check call flop is strange to me, overs though I would expect JJ-KK to lead or 3bet at this point, leaving AQ+, AK, AA, TT left in his range.

With the check on the turn, and your hand arriving, you need to bet. He has $15 left in a $13 pot, I'm pushing and paying off his passive play of AA or quad Ts

hmm. after writing that I started thinking pushing here leaves only better hands calling with everything else folding. Theres no draws to be seen anywhere, but I'm still pushing,

[AlphaKennyBody]

Any reads?

[TonyB73]

A 12/9 villain ain't raising UTG without a hand, so I'm thinking tom's range of AQo+, AJs+, TT+, KQs is pretty much spot on.

Flop has no draws, so I can see a slowplay with TT, KK, AA. This guy's super-tight, and against a pre-flop re-raiser I think he most likely leads with QQ and JJ thinking they're only good if they win there and then, and I think with AQ, KQ and AJ, and maybe AK, he check/folds.

That leaves AA, AK, KK, TT. You are beaten by three of those and tied with the fourth (if its still there), so I don't think you are strong at all even though you've hit your K. I fold.

Then again as I admitted to the world in another thread I'm the worst player of AKo in the universe ...

[TonyB73]

EDIT: sorry, repeated post ...

[Robb]

That leaves AA, AK, KK, TT. You are beaten by three of those and tied with the fourth (if its still there), so I don't think you are strong at all even though you've hit your K. I fold.

None of these hands except possibly AK are at all likely.

[TonyB73]

Thanks.

[Robb]

How many slowplayed AA/KK hands have you seen at micros? It happens, but not often. And not from AF = 2. TT isn't likely just because there's only 1 combo of TT left for him to have.

[TonyB73]

I've never played 25NL, but in my 9K or so hands at 2NL and 5 NL I'm sure I've seen it a few times, often followed by a whinge on the chat about getting sucked out after some dude they kept giving odds to hits a set on the river.

In my experience a lot of players at the micros, especially the tight ones, slowplay pretty much any decent hand they have and that includes big pocket pairs. Although I admit now that you point it out that a 12/9 is going to have a hard time getting AF=2 if he slowplays here with AA or KK. Maybe its the looser players and the nits with very low AFs that I'm thinking of.

By the way, is there a way to check on PT how others have played AA, KK against me?

[Robb]

followed by a whinge on the chat

You British, Tony?

In my experience a lot of players at the micros, especially the tight ones, slowplay pretty much any decent hand they have and that includes big pocket pairs. Although I admit now that you point it out that a 12/9 is going to have a hard time getting AF=2 if he slowplays here with AA or KK. Maybe its the looser players and the nits with very low AFs that I'm thinking of.

My experience is the opposite with AA and KK - very few slow play them, especially at 10nl and 25nl which - I have to admit - do play differently the baby-micros. 10nl is the first place I've found where the game plays "real."

By the way, is there a way to check on PT how others have played AA, KK against me?

Not that I know of.

[grnydrowave2]

I play 50nl 6-max, and I generally assume that my opponents are not positionally aware until I'm given reason to think otherwise. Is that bad?

Working off that assumption, I would say that his range preflop is mostly pocket pairs, say 22-QQ, and perhaps a few big broadways, like AJ+ and KQ. With the c/c on the flop, we can discount the broadways. I don't think too many small pairs call that flop either, so his range is probably something like 99-QQ and 33.

He's somewhat aggressive, but most people at this level love to slowplay sets. Still, I kinda doubt he would check 2 streets with 33 or TT. I wouldn't discount it entirely, but give those hands less weight, given his AF.

Based on that, I'd say that we're crushing his range on the turn and should value bet. My vote goes to QQ or JJ as it's the most applicable option.

[humanfugitive]

Preflop - 66-QQ, AJs+ AK, maybe KK/AA
Flop - 66-TT AK
- I figure JJ+ is either leading c/r or 3betting on that flop
- I would also like to bet a bit more on that flop, since 1/2 pot is easy to float with a lower pp.

-Turn - I check since it's now a WA/WB spot, and I don't think he's calling down two barrels with shit.

[Fnord]

Check behind, take him to value town if he checks the river too.

[Erpel]

PF range for raise: 99+, AJs+, AQo+, KQs
PF range for calling 3bet: 99-QQ, AQs || AA, KK, AK I would expect to see this villain 4bet. AJs, AQo and KQs I would expect to see folded. I'll leave AKo, AQo and AJs as possible but less likely.
Flop check/call: No change, though it would help to know what villain knows of hero. There are not enough hands in his raising range that TT would be sufficiently disguised if he did raise it. All other hands are happy to play a smallish pot for a cheapish showdown.
Turn check: I think here we can finally completely rule out AK. KQs is still there as an outside chance, but at this time I really think he has a pocket pair QQ, JJ or 99, 99 being doubtful. TT is still possible on a mission to check-raise if he thinks you've been playing an AA, KK or AK type hand, which isn't completely impossible considering hero's 3bet. But imo QQ-JJ is by far the most likely.

I think he's most likely to be scared by action on the turn and would fold to a second barrel. I would check behind and plan to value bet the river. Possibly a slight overbet to appear bluffy. Something like $15. This would seem like pouncing on perceived weakness seeking a fold - something hero could do with a 99 or 88 type hand also - I wouldn't be surprised if he is more inclined to call a largish bluffy bet on the river than a standard 2/3 PSB.

[deacon_bluez]

Fnord, it ain't Tuesday yet and I think you qualify as a reg.

But your saying that reminds me of a hand Bart Hanson had on Cash Plays this week, almost identical. Basically said you are probably either way ahead or way behind, and he suggested just as you did. What calls you on the turn that you beat? Then re-evaluate on the river with position.

[AlphaKennyBody]

imo villain has mid-high PP (77-JJ, possibly QQ)...those would float this flop and broadways from a 12/9 player would muck. ATs i guess is a possibility.

As for checking the turn...is there any merit of b/f here, say $9? As a matter of fact, this may be a leak of my own--when is it a good time to b/f?

[TonyB73]

You British, Tony?

LOL! No, but I'm not from the US either - I'm from a decent country.

(edit: that was a joke, in case anyone takes offence)

[wesrman]

Check behind, take him to value town if he checks the river too.

I voted for -->AJs+, KQs or AK but i doubt that its KQs. Hes pretty tight, but i think he bets out or raises the flop with JJ+. But i suck balls at hand reading.

[wesrman]

Thanks for doing these Robb, it helps a lot.

[Fnord]

Hes pretty tight, but i think he bets out or raises the flop with JJ+.

Re-think this. He has a pair here almost always and isn't raising a lot of them out of fear of AA/Tx. Once a blue me he's got a Ten.

But i suck balls at hand reading.

What hands would you play like him? Now, tighten up and play a little more passive, now what is your range?

[euphoricism]

88.

[bikes]

Check behind, take him to value town if he checks the river too.

+1

Villain is probably never folding any pair on the flop.

[wesrman]

What hands would you play like him? Now, tighten up and play a little more passive, now what is your range?

So you think he has a small PP and was looking to hit his set, but calls the flop anyway??

[Robb]

What hands would you play like him? Now, tighten up and play a little more passive, now what is your range?

So you think he has a small PP and was looking to hit his set, but calls the flop anyway??

9% Open Raise Range means

1. All pp's (6%), AQ+, AJs, KQs (~3%), OR
2. 77+ (~3.5%), AJ+, A9s+, KQ (~5.5%)

Range 1 is more like me, preferring pp's over weaker Aces and broadways, but NLH is a big card game and many micro players won't open raise small pp's but will fire in a raise (even UTG) w/ big broadways and weak suited Aces. That's Range 2. And either way, most of these combinations get blown away when he flats the preflop 3bet.

Flatting the 3bets puts a vice on villain's range. It's extremely narrow. AA and KK 4bet typically at these stakes, trying to get it all in. Smaller pp's like 77 and worse often fold, but any pair is possible. Just 22 - 66 are much less likely. Obvious pp's he's likely to have are 88 - QQ. None of the other hands can be ahead because, unless he's just made miracle quads, it's damn near impossible for him to have a Ten and VERY unlikely for him to have wired 3's.

Now he check/calls a half pot cbet. More evidence he doesn't have AA or KK, and this rules out most Ax hands and broadways, too, since there's no flush draw. He's gotta have a pair, with QQ and JJ most likely and 88 and 99 possible.

Or he's lost his mind. Either way, take him to value town either on river (like fnord says) or turn (like I did - he folded).

[Fnord]

9% Open Raise Range means

1. All pp's (6%), AQ+, AJs, KQs (~3%), OR
2. 77+ (~3.5%), AJ+, A9s+, KQ (~5.5%)

Give him some credit for being positionally aware, he opened from UTG.

Also, AA still wouldn't surprise me.

[IhaveTopTop]

Still unsure sometimes about my hand reading, but...
QQ/JJ seems most likely to me, although the more I think about it, the more it seems like a pp < TT.

[Miffed22001]

Check behind, take him to value town if he checks the river too.

seems oddly familiar that i love this line.
Fnord would you pot it or just bet something we know he is calling worth worse?

[Fnord]

$10 works, I'm a sucker for round numbers. Something that will get QQ/JJ/99/88ish stuff to call.

[GatorJH]

$10 works, I'm a sucker for round numbers. Something that will get QQ/JJ/99/88ish stuff to call.

Normally I would agree, but in this case villian only has about $16 behind so I think it needs to be a tad smaller - say $6 to $7