Correct reason to lay down?

[Knytestorme]

Going to include results here and give my reasoning for this lay down, would like opinions if it was the correct reasoning.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($10.75)
UTG+1 ($22.38)
MP1 ($10.84)
Hero ($48.75)
CO ($39.33)
Button ($2)
SB ($27.47)
BB ($10.68)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K, T. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.25, MP1 calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.25, CO calls $0.25, 1 fold, SB (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($1.50) K, A, J (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 bets $0.25, MP1 folds, Hero calls $0.25, CO calls $0.25, SB calls $0.25, BB calls $0.25.

Turn: ($2.75) Q (5 players)
SB bets $2, BB raises to $4, UTG+1 folds, Hero folds, CO folds, SB raises to $6, BB calls $2.

River: ($14.75) 7 (2 players)

Final Pot: $14.75

Results in white below:
BB has Ts 2s (straight, ace high).
SB has Td 5h (straight, ace high).
Outcome: SB wins $7.37. BB wins $7.37.

My thoughts here at the turn were that both opponents also had at least one 10, perhaps one on a flush draw and possibly one having the 10 giving them the nuts and the nut flush draw.

Given this read I put myself at best getting a 2 way chop, at worst losing to a flush and either result probably paying more to the rake than I'd receive back.

Would anyone else have made this laydown or more +ev long run to make them show they have you beat?

[KingLizard]

I agree with your thinking on the 10. The only difference in your play and mine is I wouldn't have played the K T to begin with.

[Rabid Dog]

I'm not folding an A high straight to a flush draw with only the river card to go. There's no guarantee either of them have a 10. This is 25nl, not that that matters, but they could be betting top pair only. Or chasing a straight hoping for a 10 to show on the river. You could have lost out on lots of money here. As it is you only lost your $0.50. What you should have done was push all in. SB bets $2, BB raises to $4, you push. At least thats what I would have done. Make them pay to chase a flush draw.

I'm no Lukie or Fnord, I only play 25nl and 50nl (mostly 50nl now days). But thats how I would have played it.

Maybe someone will come along and correct me if I'm wrong.

[Renton]

I raise the weak flop bet.

Nothing wrong with your fold, since you had very very little invested. However, if any significant amount of your money is in that pot its a giant mistake to lay down the nuts here.

[benny999]

I was going to post what you just wrote, Rabid Dog. Especially with the chance of a donk playing two pair or a set, even top pair like BB. But check out pokerstove...

Board: As Ks Qh Jd

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 47.6190 % 21.43% 26.19% { Ts2s }
Hand 2: 26.1905 % 00.00% 26.19% { KcTc }
Hand 3: 26.1905 % 00.00% 26.19% { Th5h }

Ignoring the dead money from CO/UTG+1/MP1, pushing is -EV if the str8/flush redraw exists AND nobody is betting at the pot without Tx because of the 20% chance of the flush redraw winning the pot.

But wIthout knowing the results, pushing could be +EV with villains who are betting at the pot and will call a push with less than Tx on that board, but IMO that is rare even at 25nl. Calling is risky since the Tx w/ flush redraw should push after you call, and if they just call you both could be letting a set/2pr/flush-draw-only stay cheaply.

I'm not sure what the best play is on the turn if you include worse hands than Tx in their range. Probably pushing because of the set/2pr redraw, but it's not as easy of a decision as a rainbow board would be.

Folding the turn isn't a huge mistake, but one thing's for sure...fold on the flop if you're going to fold that turn. Calling pre flop can work out with real loose/passive tables to play for 2pr+, but your hand is weak on that flop as it will be on most others. I agree with folding pre flop because of your position, or at least on the flop.

[Rabid Dog]

I was going to post what you just wrote, Rabid Dog. Especially with the chance of a donk playing two pair or a set, even top pair like BB. But check out pokerstove...

Board: As Ks Qh Jd

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 47.6190 % 21.43% 26.19% { Ts2s }
Hand 2: 26.1905 % 00.00% 26.19% { KcTc }
Hand 3: 26.1905 % 00.00% 26.19% { Th5h }

I'm not really familiar with poker stove. Is it actually saying OP has a zero chance of winning with Kc Tc? If thats the case, wouldn't you think something is wrong with that program?

As I said, I'm not familiar with poker stove, so maybe I'm reading that wrong.

[benny999]

Yea, it is correct, you just didn't notice the Tie % column. Hero has 0% of winning, but 26% of tying. He has no redraw, so the best he can do is tie.

[Rabid Dog]

The best he can do is tie, and has zero chance of winning according to this program if he has the Ace high straight? That program is crap then. There is no way that program can know the other 2 oponents have a 10 which would create a tie. And by saying there is zero chance he can win the hand the program is guaranteeing (sp) the flush will either be hit or someone has one of the remaining three 10's. How can it possibly do that?

I have to be reading that wrong. The program is actually saying this guy can not win this hand. But he does have a 26% chance to tie the hand???

I'm a complete moron and I admit it, because I just dont see how the hero has a zero % chance of winning. Maybe I'm just closed minded.

Like I said, I know nothing about poker stove. So can either you or someone else please explain this to me in terms an old person like me can understand why poker stove would say he has a zero % chance to win.

[iloveyoooo]

The program is not as complicated as you think. You enter the hands of yourself & villains and it tells you what % chance everyone has of winning on a certain board. It's done after the hand, when you know what villain had...

In this case hero has no chance of winning outright because someone else has a ten.

[Rabid Dog]

The program is not as complicated as you think. You enter the hands of yourself & villains and it tells you what % chance everyone has of winning on a certain board. It's done after the hand, when you know what villain had...

In this case hero has no chance of winning outright because someone else has a ten.

OK, I see now. See I just needed an elementary explanation. I thought he put in those values for the hero to go along with the board only. I had no idea he also entered the values of opponents hands also. I thought this was all done without knowing what the opponents had. I could not for the life of me figure out how poker stove could say hero had a zero chance of winning because I didnt know opponents hands were entered in.

But without knowing the after the fact percentages, I still think a push is in order on the turn to try and clear out any flush drawers. Of course SB and BB with the stacks they had would probably have called a push anyhow if they were chasing. Especially the SB, since he was basically all in anyhow.

[Knytestorme]

Renton, I see what you are saying about the flop bet, think that was definately the weakness in the play and not sure why I didn't...only reason I can think of is that I may have been involved in a play on another table as well and didn't devote enough time thinking.

Also agree, if I had bet hard on the flop and had, say, $2 already involved in the pot come the turn I was most likely still staying in.

Rabid Dog, I can see your points as well and with slightly different play in the hand I'm staying in the hand. However, given my read on these guys from PokerOffice and their betting patterns previously, I could confidently put at least one of them on a 10.

Actually QT was a viable hand to them (and another reason that re-raising the flop would have been a damn good idea) so at best I was tying the hand and getting a 2 way chop and most likely a 3 way, ignoring the flush.

Given that up to the turn there was only $2.75 in the pot, and believing there will be a 3 way chop, that means I am only seeing a return of $0.90 (roughly) in return to that point (or $0.40 taking out the $0.50 I have invested up to that point) do you really beleive that it would be worth pushing here considering that the rake would take more than that $0.40 out of my share of the pot at the end if htere is a chop?

The only way I would have won this pot would have been if I played hard to rep the flush draw and a spade hit the river, but even there at this level I wouldn't put the others on the ability to lay down the straight.

Given that reasoning at the time, I don't see it as being -EV to lay down here, but it's certainly not something I'm doing more than 1 in a 1000 hands or more. Having said that, I definatly could have played this hand differently on the flop and taken control of it there, especially if I put them on a T since the Q that would make my nuts would make theirs too and thus I'd get into the same situation....ahhhh we're in a loop, someone get the delorean.

[renegaderob1]

This is an unraised pot; I wouldn't be so worried about folding as you only lose 2bb worth here and as you said, you are probably splitting this 2 way, if not 3 way. 2 pairs, sets and flush drawers with the T all have outs to win and basically the only way you win here is if these two guys are complete morons.. I'd say it's more +EV (lets not forget rake here) to fold here and find a better spot to stick your stack in ...

[jackvance]

No way I'm folding this. I push the turn. Thinking both of em have the T here and one of the T's also happens to have the flush draw is crazy low odds.. even though it happened. I'd give one of em a T, and expect to split the dead money with him. Or maybe a 2p/set will be foolish enough to ride along.

[Lukie]

Yea, it is correct, you just didn't notice the Tie % column. Hero has 0% of winning, but 26% of tying. He has no redraw, so the best he can do is tie.

no... hero has a 0% chance of being the sole winner of the pot, and a huge chance of tying. He has 26% equity.

[Lukie]

knytestorme,

Every street is debatable in this hand but I don't see anything grossly wrong here. I'd probably call on the turn though.

[Rabid Dog]

Given that up to the turn there was only $2.75 in the pot, and believing there will be a 3 way chop, that means I am only seeing a return of $0.90 (roughly) in return to that point (or $0.40 taking out the $0.50 I have invested up to that point) do you really beleive that it would be worth pushing here considering that the rake would take more than that $0.40 out of my share of the pot at the end if htere is a chop?

I do think its worth pushing. Others with more experience than I might say I'm wrong or might agree with me, I don't know. But look at it from the stand point of you don't know what they have, your still in the hand and your just guesstimating what they may have.

At best on the turn, someone else may have a 10 to tie your nut straight. Then you split the pot. The board is not paired, so a full house is out of the question on the turn. Maybe they are throwing a hard bet with a set to throw off the straight or flush draw? You dont know, this could have been what was happening. Maybe one of them is on a flush draw and the other a straight draw or has a set, in which case your Ace high straight wins, as long as they don't hit the flush.

A push would have taken away the flush draws odds (right?). And you beat any set.

A call would not have been bad, except you give anyone chasing a flush or straight that extra chance at a card to hit.

Knowing what you know in the end, yeah it wasn't a bad lay down. But at the turn, I think it was.

Thats just my opinion, like I said someone with more experience than I might disagree, heck someone with less experience than I have might also disagree. Thats just how I would have played it, and my thoughts on the hand.