[5NL] KQo UTG...overplayed hand?

[Cobra_1878]

Villain was pretty unknown, 36/14 through 15 hands.

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (UTG): $5.00
MP: $5.00
CO: $5.07
BTN: $8.42
SB: $3.71
BB: $18.31

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has Q K

Hero raises to $0.20, fold, CO calls $0.20, fold, fold, fold

Flop: ($0.47, 2 players) Q 4 3
Hero bets $0.35, CO calls $0.35

Turn: ($1.17, 2 players) 5
Hero bets $0.90, CO calls $0.90

River: ($2.97, 2 players) 7
Hero bets $1.70, CO raises to $3.62 and is all-in, Hero calls $1.85 and is all-in

[Savy]

Against an unknown that has to be a fold. His range realistically has got to crush KQ.

I don't really think you overplayed it until you called the river either, just value betting a good hand. Although your bet sizing has left it awkward for yourself at the end again.

[Cobra_1878]

Against an unknown that has to be a fold. His range realistically has got to crush KQ.

I don't really think you overplayed it until you called the river either, just value betting a good hand. Although your bet sizing has left it awkward for yourself at the end again.

Suggested bet sizing and reasons?

[rong]

I'd have played pf and flop as you have, then bet 70 on turn and c/c a reasonable bet on the river.

[rong]

The trouble is your hand looks like QQ-AA, KQ, AQ. And you're easy to stack when you have top pair/over pair even when there's 4 cards to a straight on the board and the villain is clearly refusing to give up. Lots of things here make life difficult for you.

[Cobra_1878]

The trouble is your hand looks like QQ-AA, KQ, AQ. And you're easy to stack when you have top pair/over pair even when there's 4 cards to a straight on the board and the villain is clearly refusing to give up. Lots of things here make life difficult for you.

I think it's probably one of my weakest spots in poker, playing TPTK/TPGK OOP. Just been going through a few of them on PT and thought I would post this one up.

[eugmac]

Seems like you fell in love with your hand and convinced yourself based on your gut feeling that he must be bluffing, because otherwise you would have to fold.

[x] been there, done that.

[Savy]

Suggested bet sizing and reasons?

30 otf because you don't want to be inflating the pot OOP and 30 achieves the same as 35.

then I'd bet like 65/70 ott.

[eugmac]

giving this some thought i probably also check river, though, and shrug-call a small bet. I don't know how often you're getting unknowns to call you here with QJ/QT on this runout. With any sort of station read you clearly need to bet here though, and fold to a raise.

[sam1FTR]

Suggested bet sizing and reasons?

Playing out of position is just the worst. I feel like you have to bet on the flop, but on the turn I would probably just check/call. If he possibly connected with the straight draw on the flop, then the 5 had to help him a little bit.

Keeping the pot small, then you won't have to deal with a huge bet/raise on the river with only one pair

[The Bean Counter]

Early indications are villain is loose passive and probably a station/weaker player and I'd be looking to get this in over three streets on this run-out.

[Savy]

Just to show how meaningless a 15 hand sample is

[The Bean Counter]

I think you can narrow down a villain's tendencies fairly well after 15 hands though. Somebody showing 36/14 at 5nl is unlikely to be a nit, tag or lag for instance and unlikely to be competent, just like a 0/0 over 26 hands is unlikely to be lag, loose passive or completely incompetent.

The key is using the information at hand to make a better decision, rather than disregarding everything because of sample size.

[daviddem]

Flop size is fine, but I half pot turn and river (and fold if raised at any point).

+1 that 36/14 over 15 hands already tells you something about your villain...

[Icanhastreebet]

Just to show how meaningless a 15 hand sample is

??? It's not meaningless. The fact you didn't play any hands for 26hands means there is no way you are a weak player who easily gets bored for one.

[Icanhastreebet]

I think you can narrow down a villain's tendencies fairly well after 15 hands though. Somebody showing 36/14 at 5nl is unlikely to be a nit, tag or lag for instance and unlikely to be competent, just like a 0/0 over 26 hands is unlikely to be lag, loose passive or completely incompetent.

The key is using the information at hand to make a better decision, rather than disregarding everything because of sample size.

This guy gets it. If you are waiting to have even 50 hands at 2NL to start making assumptions you might as well play completely HUDless.

[Savy]

??? It's not meaningless. The fact you didn't play any hands for 26hands means there is no way you are a weak player who easily gets bored for one.

Meaningless is a bit extreme obviously, but I wouldn't be drawing any huge conclusions from it.

[Pascal]

Notes > stats anyway