To cbet or not to cbet?

[seven-deuce]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

MP ($10.24)
CO ($10.37)
Button ($3.93)
Hero (SB) ($9.98)
BB ($7.28)
UTG ($5.36)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, K
3 folds, Button bets $0.15, Hero raises to $0.45, 1 fold, Button calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.95) 9, Q, J (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

Turn: ($0.95) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

River: ($0.95) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

Total pot: $0.95 | Rake: $0.04


Treat villain as unknown.

My preflop 3bet range in this spot is { A2s-A5s, AK, TT+ }

So i decided not to cbet this flop because i thought it hit his range pretty hard, i think he is going to have a lot of Qx Jx when he calls my 3bet preflop. So i didn't think i would have much fold equity on this board and also if he calls the flop there aren't to many turn cards i can barrel on the turn to get better to fold i don't think.

Like if i cbet the flop and he calls he's gonna have a Q or J alot of the time sometimes a pair and a draw with the T. So obviously i can barrel some turn cards with decent pot equity i don't think those cards mainly hearts are going to add any fold equity.

For example i stoved my hand vs a turn calling range with a heart turn card;

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,848 games 0.001 secs 1,848,000 games/sec

Board: 9h Qc Js 4h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.089% 32.09% 00.00% 593 0.00 { AhKh }
Hand 1: 67.911% 67.91% 00.00% 1255 0.00 { KJs+, JTs, T9s, KJo+, QTo, JTo }

So i obviously have decent pot equity but all the hearts bar the Th which gives me the nuts and nut redraw are gonna give me any fold equity. So say he calls the flop with hand like KJ or KQ if a 5/6/7 of hearts hits the turn for example nothing has really changed and it's not like its a scare card for top or second pair that may have a straight draw to go along with it.

I suppose i can rep a set of jacks queens and KK AA.

Should i be cbetting here? Am i underestimating my fold equity here?

[rpm]

looks good to me

[kiwiMark]

Board: 9h Qc Js 4h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.089% 32.09% 00.00% 593 0.00 { AhKh }

You gave yourself a flush draw when stoving that you didn't have in the HH, just for the record.

I'd 3bet to 4x (so 60cents) OOP rather than 3x.

As for the cbet, I guess there's an argument that he calls your 3bet not just with good broadways but also with a bunch of pocket pairs that he might fold to two barrels, but I don't think I'd want to trust that vs an unknown at 5nl

[seven-deuce]

You gave yourself a flush draw when stoving that you didn't have in the HH, just for the record.

I'd 3bet to 4x (so 60cents) OOP rather than 3x.

As for the cbet, I guess there's an argument that he calls your 3bet not just with good broadways but also with a bunch of pocket pairs that he might fold to two barrels, but I don't think I'd want to trust that vs an unknown at 5nl

Yes i was just trying to illustrate that if i did choose to cbet with the intention of barreling any heart, Tor A then although i will pick up pot equity when a heart peels on the turn i don't think i will pick up any fold equity as they aren't scare cards for decent pairs, that's all i was trying to do sorry for the confusion lol

Is this bad logic? Was just giving my reasoning as why not to cbet in this hand.

[kiwiMark]

Oh that one's my bad, I somehow skipped over a paragraph while scrolling down and didn't read the bit where you explained that

[Malbrack]

Would villain flat your 3bet preflop with A2-A8? Otherwise, there aren’t really any worse Aces that he would easily fold, right? Or do you think he’d fold A9 or AT?

I’m probably way off, but can we put villain on range like this on the flop?
QQ-66, AQs-AJs, KJs+, QJs, JTs, AQo-AJo, KQo

That’s 67 hand combos, taking blockers into account.

He might call a 2/3-pot cbet with something like the following:
QQ-99, AQs-AJs, KJs+, QJs, JTs, AQo-AJo, KQo

That’s 49 hand combos, taking blockers into account. So he folds 26.9% of the time. As a pure bluff you would need him to fold more than 40% of the time (60/60+90). Do you have enough equity to make this profitable? Against this continuing range, you only have 26.3% equity.

If your 2/3-pot cbet was an all-in, then it would come out to be +EV (26.9% of the time you win $0.90. Of the remaining 73.1% of the time when villain calls, you win $1.50 26.3% of the time and lose $0.60 73.7% of the time. If I did the math correctly, that should be +$0.20.). But if you figure that later streets of betting will be a pain with this hand, then check/fold on the flop makes sense to me.

But then the villain checks through the flop, turn, and river. Wouldn’t checking through the flop weigh his range toward underpairs or bottom/mid pairs which might fold out to a bet? Couldn’t you think about cbetting the turn? Or does checking the flop after 3betting preflop convince the villain that you don’t have a Q (or even a J) or better, so he would call with most any pair?

[The Bean Counter]

Hand is played fine imo against an unknown.

My preflop 3bet range in this spot is { A2s-A5s, AK, TT+ }

5% resteal seems far too tight though, even against an unknown - anybody else agree?

[spoonitnow]

I'm of the opinion that you could open up a bit on your 3-betting (more bluffs).

[Micro2Macro]

I'm of the opinion that you could open up a bit on your 3-betting (more bluffs).

also this

vs almost all button opens you should be 3betting KQ/KJ, KTs and shit

[Migo14]

Guess I would have tried to Cbet here and take the pot down.
But I would have given up the hand if he calls and no good turn card would have showed up.

[Micro2Macro]

I think you should absolutely cbet here when you have a BDFD. AKo may be a check, but if you're going to bet any AK combos this should be in your betting range.

Checking AK on this board will have you c/fing to weaker Ax or worse that bluffs, and small pairs betting will have you c/fing and not realizing any of your equity. If villain is really passive though checking may be greater than the EV of betting.

Cliffs: If you don't bet AhKh here wtf are you bluffing with

[seven-deuce]

I think you should absolutely cbet here when you have a BDFD. AKo may be a check, but if you're going to bet any AK combos this should be in your betting range.

Checking AK on this board will have you c/fing to weaker Ax or worse that bluffs, and small pairs betting will have you c/fing and not realizing any of your equity. If villain is really passive though checking may be greater than the EV of betting.

Cliffs: If you don't bet AhKh here wtf are you bluffing with

I was thinking i would bluff TT here but i think that's bad when re-thinking things, i think you may be right about c-betting here. I suppose i could get most of his jacks to fold to two barrels not to mention his smaller PP's, assuming they are in his pre-flop range of course. Also their are quit a few turns that will increase my pot equity as well.

I think i'd be check folding AhKh before check-calling with it, without performing any calculations because i'd be here all day for one, i would assume the EV of check folding 0 would be better than check calling, i think check calling would be -EV.

Thanks for the reply btw, i now am sure i should have c-bet and barreled good turns. I never even noticed that i didn't have a c-bet bluff range either.

[Micro2Macro]

I was thinking i would bluff TT here but i think that's bad when re-thinking things, i think you may be right about c-betting here. I suppose i could get most of his jacks to fold to two barrels not to mention his smaller PP's, assuming they are in his pre-flop range of course. Also their are quit a few turns that will increase my pot equity as well.

I think i'd be check folding AhKh before check-calling with it, without performing any calculations because i'd be here all day for one, i would assume the EV of check folding 0 would be better than check calling, i think check calling would be -EV.

Thanks for the reply btw, i now am sure i should have c-bet and barreled good turns. I never even noticed that i didn't have a c-bet bluff range either.

just to be clear, folding is neutral (0) EV, but checking isn't 0 EV. you realize some equity when you check. Depending on how aggressive villain is this will start close to 0 if he is betting heavily into you with near 100% frequency, and will go up as he he checks a larger portion of his range.

visualize it as a spectrum:

0EV realized = villain betting 100% and you folding - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 'some amount' of EV realized from villain checking down - - - - - - - - - - realizing your full amount of pot equity vs villains range by checking down 100% to river (which given your assumptions is 32.089%)

when you check call you put money into the pot, which may be + or - EV depending on villains range tendencies etc etc.

you seem right on intuitively when you feel c/c is -ev. ive modeled a spot similar to this just recently which leads me to the same conclusion thus in game I would not c/c AK here in a vacuum unless I had very specific reason to support it, though its all depending on what villains range is and how he plays it and how much attention and thought he's putting into to analyzing your play. (so far beyond the scope of this thread...)

[seven-deuce]

just to be clear, folding is neutral (0) EV, but checking isn't 0 EV. you realize some equity when you check. Depending on how aggressive villain is this will start close to 0 if he is betting heavily into you with near 100% frequency, and will go up as he he checks a larger portion of his range.

visualize it as a spectrum:

0EV realized = villain betting 100% and you folding - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 'some amount' of EV realized from villain checking down - - - - - - - - - - realizing your full amount of pot equity vs villains range by checking down 100% to river (which given your assumptions is 32.089%)

when you check call you put money into the pot, which may be + or - EV depending on villains range tendencies etc etc.

you seem right on intuitively when you feel c/c is -ev. ive modeled a spot similar to this just recently which leads me to the same conclusion thus in game I would not c/c AK here in a vacuum unless I had very specific reason to support it, though its all depending on what villains range is and how he plays it and how much attention and thought he's putting into to analyzing your play. (so far beyond the scope of this thread...)

Wow, great post thanks.

I just discovered the logic behind never open folding.

We would be choosing an inferior option. If we check we are allowing ourselves to realize some EV if villain checks as well, worst case scenario we check villain bets and we fold and realize 0EV, which is the same as folding outright anyway. So we are in effect sacrificing some EV by folding outright and the more we do it the more we sacrifice and it all adds up and translates into $ in the long run.

Cool, the past few days i can feel how i view poker changing, it's simply a game where the objective is to choose the option that yields the most EV or from the other extreme loses the least EV.

Just to note i don't open fold. Although i never had a full understanding of why you shouldn't, now i do.

[griffey24]

By default, this type of board is a pretty big disaster for us and hits villain's range a lot harder than ours.

In general I would c/f AK here, but I agree with M2M than if we want to be cbetting some overs here then AK with BDFD's are good.

That still only represents 3 out of the 16 possible combos of AK, so it's not like we'd be getting out of line.