[2NL] ATo, TPTK. Weird river shove?

[Cobra_1878]

Villain was 15/7 through 41 hands. This was the first time he had donked a flop and he had definitely picked up on the fact I was stealing a lot from the button.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) ($2.11)
SB ($1.71)
BB ($1.98)
UTG ($2.30)
MP ($2.39)
CO ($0.88)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, 10
2 folds, CO calls $0.02, Hero bets $0.08, SB calls $0.07, 1 fold, CO calls $0.06

Flop: ($0.26) 10, 4, 7 (3 players)
SB bets $0.14, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.14

Turn: ($0.54) 7 (2 players)
SB bets $0.26, Hero calls $0.26

River: ($1.06) 9 (2 players)
SB bets $1.23 (All-In), Hero ???

[kickass]

Not that weird tbh. Fold now, you played it well I thinks. I can see an argument for folding turn but for his sizing I think calling is ok.

[Cobra_1878]

If he was planning on shoving river I thought his turn sizing would have been bigger? It looked like a bluff to me?

[kickass]

No it's a "I don't know what the fuck I'm doing cos I suck value play"

[OngBonga]

No it's a "I don't know what the fuck I'm doing cos I suck value play"

This.

[Arjonius]

If he was planning on shoving river I thought his turn sizing would have been bigger? It looked like a bluff to me?

At 2NL and maybe every other level, it's better to base your decisions on how opponents have played than on how you think they should play.

[MadMojoMonkey]

My gut says fold, but I have to narrow Villain's range to exactly A7s to fold. Villain is 15/7 and did NOT 3-bet, so the range is pretty thin. Most of Villains hands are TPGK hands that Hero has crushed.

There is only 1 combo of TT (which would have been a slow-play pre-flop), and T7, T4, 74 are non-existent in Villains range. This leaves 1 combo of 77, and (if Villain is playing low PP from EP), a few combos of 44 as well. It's conceivable that Villain slow-played JJ or QQ pre-flop, but unlikely with a 7% 3-bet stat. Of course, A7s is very possible. Outside of that, there are basically no hands that Villain plays with a 7 in them, unless Hero has seen Villain over-value mid SC's.

Big question: Does Hero have any indication that Villain is capable of a 3-barrel bluff?

[kmind]

Disagree with him having just A7 but I give him nothing but value hands that crush you. Even QQ some of the time. JJ for sure. Other full houses. Quads.

It's pretty important to figure out what kind of range he's donking with and readless with him being tight and having the pot multiway all I see is him having TP+ until the river where I put him on TPTK+. He wants value from CO so instead of slow playing or some c/r scary crap, he just leads.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Villain is 15/7 and called pre-flop. What's the pre-flop range you (kmind) put Villain on to get those boats/quads?

Why would you suspect any PP lower than 66... much less the T7, 74, T4?

Can you put this villain on T9 or 97, given Villain's position, pre-flop stats, and the donk bet on the flop?

Is this villain going to 2-barrel 2nd pair w/ 99?

How about an OESD w/ 98s? Does this villain shove 2nd pair on the river?

Villain's TP hands are many (AT, KT, QT, JTs, T9s) and only the T9 gets there on the river. Would this villain 2-barrel with a 9-kicker?

A slow-played pair, TT - QQ, makes the most sense. Of course, the A7 (which means the donk bet is made as a bluff before it catches trips on the turn) is in there. I can't find any good reason to exclude 77 from pre-flop range, but the turn gives 77 only 1 combo.

OP: "[Villain] had definitely picked up on the fact [Hero] was stealing a lot from the button"

As evidenced by... ?

[supa]

If he was planning on shoving river I thought his turn sizing would have been bigger? It looked like a bluff to me?

This is you still expecting villain to do what you think he should do. Snap out of it man.

[OngBonga]

Monkey, 41 hands, not enough for accurate stats. He can have 44 pretty easy imo.

[Cobra_1878]

Villain is 15/7 and called pre-flop. What's the pre-flop range you (kmind) put Villain on to get those boats/quads?

Why would you suspect any PP lower than 66... much less the T7, 74, T4?

Can you put this villain on T9 or 97, given Villain's position, pre-flop stats, and the donk bet on the flop?

Is this villain going to 2-barrel 2nd pair w/ 99?

How about an OESD w/ 98s? Does this villain shove 2nd pair on the river?

Villain's TP hands are many (AT, KT, QT, JTs, T9s) and only the T9 gets there on the river. Would this villain 2-barrel with a 9-kicker?

A slow-played pair, TT - QQ, makes the most sense. Of course, the A7 (which means the donk bet is made as a bluff before it catches trips on the turn) is in there. I can't find any good reason to exclude 77 from pre-flop range, but the turn gives 77 only 1 combo.

OP: "[Villain] had definitely picked up on the fact [Hero] was stealing a lot from the button"

As evidenced by... ?

He started snap calling my button raises, 3 on the run I believe it was.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Monkey, 41 hands, not enough for accurate stats. He can have 44 pretty easy imo.

Of course, but why post any stats if you're going to just ignore them and say, "small sample"? Even a sample of 1 or 2 hands is enough to make a preliminary read. Of course, alter the read as more info is gleaned. What range do you put Villain on?
Can anyone give relevant advice to bet or fold, if not giving Villain a range? Even a vacuum range?
That's the first thing that was drilled into me when I started posting.

He started snap calling my button raises, 3 on the run I believe it was.

Definitely include this in the hand info.

So you think he may be playing ATC pre-flop? This is at least as important as including the 15/7.
What range do you give Villain for donking the flop?

[Cobra_1878]

Of course, but why post any stats if you're going to just ignore them and say, "small sample"? Even a sample of 1 or 2 hands is enough to make a preliminary read. Of course, alter the read as more info is gleaned. What range do you put Villain on?
Can anyone give relevant advice to bet or fold, if not giving Villain a range? Even a vacuum range?
That's the first thing that was drilled into me when I started posting.


Definitely include this in the hand info.

So you think he may be playing ATC pre-flop? This is at least as important as including the 15/7.
What range do you give Villain for donking the flop?

Yeah sorry, I see why that's pretty important. Yeah when he calls pre for 3rd/4th time on run he could pretty much be holding anything. Tbh I put his donk down to a bluff, he was very strangely folding his hands when the flop come out, not even giving me a chance to cbet. figured he was frustrated with missing the flop and tried leading out and couldn't give up the bluff. Or at least that's how it felt to me.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Tbh I put his donk down to a bluff, he was very strangely folding his hands when the flop come out, not even giving me a chance to cbet. figured he was frustrated with missing the flop and tried leading out and couldn't give up the bluff. Or at least that's how it felt to me.

Ahhh... see, this is the good stuff. This is the info I need.

Villain has shown a tendency to fold on the flop to no bet OOP in heads up pots? Then, Villain bets a flop OOP in a multi-way pot and you think it's a bluff? I seriously doubt it.

I'd call the flop, because it sounds like I've already stolen more than that from this Villain, not because I think I'm ahead. So, in essence, I'd freeroll Villain with his own chips for a 10% draw to improve. When the board pairs on the turn, with this read, I fold knowing I am exploiting this fool.

[OngBonga]

I'm not saying we ignore stats when we have a small sample. But I can be at 14/7 on one table and 35/32 on another after 41 hands. If he was 67/12 we can happily say he's a fish who calls too much pre, but 14/7 after 41 hands does not give us enough info for us to be able to say he's too tight to have 44 in his range. In fact if I were to get any info from these stats, it's that he's more likely to have 44 in his range, he calls as often as he raises, so what makes you think he folds even 22 pre flop to a raise?

As for the hand, I play it the same I think, fold river.

[MadMojoMonkey]

If TPTK is no good on the flop, then what are you hoping to draw on the river when you call the turn bet?

[MadMojoMonkey]

Also, in retrospect, I agree with your assessment that I can justify including 44 in Villain's range, even if the 15/7 is strong. If Villain is not positionally aware, then it's easy.

[rpm]

i'd expect just about everybody at 2nl to have 22+ in their preflop continuing range from the blinds. i also wouldn't be surprised if villain flats JJ most of the time and QQ at some non-zero frequency. i suspect villain is betting purely for value given he has been nitty thus far, he donked into 3 opponents, and then fired T+R on a dry board. i'd play the same on the flop and turn (because villain can still have JT,QT,KT sometimes). but once he ships the river i'm thinking the worst hand he will show us is JJ, MAYBE AT but i don't think he'll ever fire 3 like this with KT

oh and @ MMM, nobody has said that villain had a 7% 3bet stat have they? OP said villain was 15/7 or something, but that usually means 15VPIP/7PFR. correct me if i'm wrong OP?

edit: donked into 2 opponents, not 3

[rpm]

I'd call the flop, because it sounds like I've already stolen more than that from this Villain, not because I think I'm ahead. So, in essence, I'd freeroll Villain with his own chips for a 10% draw to improve.

this is bogus logic imo. how much you have won or lost off a player in the past doesn't affect the EV of any of our decisions in a current hand.

[MadMojoMonkey]

No, it's a long-game strategy, I admit. Probably a leak in my game, at these stakes.

[rpm]

what is a "long-game strategy"? it sounds to me like it's a glaring leak whereby you are justifying bad plays (not saying your advice on this hand was necessarily bad, but that logic is) by how/where you got the money in your stack from.

by the same token, if some villain with a nutted range disconnected and timed out on the river when you had air (you'd been bluffing the turn but his turn call meant he always had the nuts) would you proceed to chase bad draws and call his pot-size flop+turn bets with only 3 outs vs him until you had lost back the amount you won off him (your "freeroll")?

[Cobra_1878]

i'd expect just about everybody at 2nl to have 22+ in their preflop continuing range from the blinds. i also wouldn't be surprised if villain flats JJ most of the time and QQ at some non-zero frequency. i suspect villain is betting purely from value given he has been nitty thus far, he donked into 3 opponents, and then fired T+R on a dry board. i'd play the same on the flop and turn (because villain can still have JT,QT,KT sometimes). but once he ships the river i'm thinking the worst hand he will show us is JJ, MAYBE AT but i don't think he'll ever fire 3 like this with KT

oh and @ MMM, nobody has said that villain had a 7% 3bet stat have they? OP said villain was 15/7 or something, but that usually means 15VPIP/7PFR. correct me if i'm wrong OP?

That's right.

[OngBonga]

If TPTK is no good on the flop, then what are you hoping to draw on the river when you call the turn bet?

The point being it takes his river shove for me to believe tptk is no good... when he bets flop and turn at this size, I have no reason to think our hand is behind vs his range. He doesn't look like he wants stacks in, at least until river. His sizing is so bad throughout that he's left with a stupid overbet on the river, I can't be folding tptk to a half pot bet on the turn.

[MadMojoMonkey]

what is a "long-game strategy"? it sounds to me like it's a glaring leak whereby you are justifying bad plays [...] by how/where you got the money in your stack from.

long-game strategy = adjusting my play to take advantage of specific reads and changing table dynamics.

When I make this play, it's not really about how/where I got the money in my stack; it's about how much I've been pwning a single villain, how much tilt I think they're on, how much tilt I think I can induce by showing a draw that got there, and that I'm willing to finance a slightly non-standard line based on a read, especially if I think it will promote more action and pwnage in the near future. Also, I think there is a benefit to letting the tight players at the table see me do something out of rhythm against a weaker opponent, because they expect me to take the same line against them.

I do this against a player that I have tangled with a bunch of times, and who I feel I am leagues above in skill, and from whom I have stolen a much greater amount than my marginal play will cost me, if it misses.

I would never give the donkey back all of their money through this, not even 1/4. This is a once in a while move that I only attempt when the conditions are just so. I'd estimate that I only do this once or twice a week. I'd also estimate that at worst it's 0EV, and I honestly think I make profit from this move. I grant you that it's easy to fool myself into thinking I'm a genius...

(not saying your advice on this hand was necessarily bad, but that logic is)

When would it be necessary to give bad advice? Except in your threads?

by the same token, if some villain with a nutted range disconnected and timed out on the river when you had air (you'd been bluffing the turn but his turn call meant he always had the nuts) would you proceed to chase bad draws and call his pot-size flop+turn bets with only 3 outs vs him until you had lost back the amount you won off him (your "freeroll")?

No, this is never based on me winning a single hand. This is based on a villain showing tendencies, over many hands, of marginal to bad play. This is based on having some equity, implied odds and the fact that I am not amazingly awesome at reads and I may win a cheap showdown, unimproved.

I would not call multiple streets based on this move. I would not give a significant amount of monies or action to a donkey. I would only give a little extra action when it looks like they're tilting and thier play has gone from bad to terrible.

[MadMojoMonkey]

oh and @ MMM, nobody has said that villain had a 7% 3bet stat have they? OP said villain was 15/7 or something, but that usually means 15VPIP/7PFR. correct me if i'm wrong OP?

That's right.

My bad.

Honestly, I noticed that mistake, but it was too late to edit. I was kinda hoping no one would catch me, and it didn't seem like it was worth getting Pascal involved, but... oh you guys!