[2NL] AQo, IP, vs short stack.

[Cobra_1878]

Villain was 23/6 through 31 hands and had 0% for cbet. No other info.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($2.74)
MP ($0.88)
CO ($2.52)
Hero (Button) ($2.48)
SB ($1.98)
BB ($3.91)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, A
1 fold, MP bets $0.08, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.08, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.19) A, 4, 10 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $0.12, MP calls $0.12

Turn: ($0.43) 9 (2 players)
MP bets $0.04, Hero raises to $0.28, MP calls $0.24

River: ($0.99) 3 (2 players)
MP bets $0.40 (All-In), Hero ???

What could they possibly have? I am completely confused with this hand? Have I put enough into the pot that I kind of have to call this regardless or can I fold it?

I had put them on something like KQ/KJ but I really don't see them raising with this hand in MP but the shove makes me think it's a missed draw?

[MadMojoMonkey]

A 23/6 that opened is in their top 6% to start.
{ 99+,A9s+,KQs,AQo+ }

On the flop, assuming Villain will stay with top pair or better, and float with 2nd pair if it's PP.
{ TT+,A9s+,AQo+ }

When Villain calls the re-raise on the turn, the JJ-KK pockets are far less likely. When those come out of Villain's range, Hero becomes a 3:1 dog in this hand.
( TT,AA,A9s+,AQo+ }

Unless you have a note that says Villain overplays GSSD's, I got a feeling it's not a missed draw.

[MikeMcFlack]

Snap call.

[Arjonius]

Snap call.

Could you make your post at least potentially useful by laying out your thought process?

[kickass]

3b call it off pre. As played bet moar all streets as played call I guess. Lol if he shows up with 33.

[Carroters]

Call and be very happy about it. You need to be good less than 1/4 of the time and you're good way over 50%.

[rpm]

really comfortable call for me

[OngBonga]

Could you make your post at least potentially useful by laying out your thought process?

Allow me to assist...

"Hmm... this guy's a short stack donkey, and he's all in for less than half the pot... we need to be good here around 25% of the time, if I were to make a swift approximation. I suspect we have the better hand a lot more often than this, thus I think I should call this as fast as possible in case I lose connection or something horrible like that".

Or, to put it in simpler terms...

"snap call".

[kmind]

Yeah really quick call with the odds. Looks good.

[rong]

Hmpff, I wonder if you're ever good here. But I'm never folding regardless.

[Icanhastreebet]

Do not snap call this ever. Without doing any math it looks really close. Also do NOT 3b/call it off pre that is absolute spew.

[OngBonga]

You really think we're lower 25%? Wow.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

20 games 0.050 secs 400 games/sec

Board: Ad 4c Ts 9h 3d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 15.000% 00.00% 15.00% 0 3.00 { AsQd }
Hand 1: 85.000% 70.00% 15.00% 14 3.00 { AA, TT, AQs+, ATs, AQo+ }


---

Holy fuck. I really need to reassess how I estimate hand strength vs range.

Even with A9s and AJs we're just under 22%.

So the question is... does he have AJo, because we need him to.

[daven]

pre is closer than you think, so are flop and turn. River is a call, but don't go fist-pumping or anything cos it's probably not a lot better than breakeven

[Shotglass]

Have I put enough into the pot that I kind of have to call this regardless.....

What you've already put into the pot should have no bearing on your current decision for the river.

Without reading the other replies or punching it into stove, I think that I'm calling but not happy with it. I think that we're prolly good here less than 1/4 of the time.

[supa]

What you've already put into the pot should have no bearing on your current decision for the river.

This is something you really need to understand cobra. The chips you have put in the pot no longer belong to you. With each street you have to make decisions based on pot odds and how much equity you have.

This goes back to what bikes said about money. Chips are not money. They are tools to help you make money. If you continue to worry about the money you will never become a good player. You have to learn to let it go.

[Cobra_1878]

Do you not consider what you have put into the pot to determine whether you are pot committed though? Or is that just for all-in situations only?

Sorry I am just trying to get my head round everything. I do need to understand it though as I call so many bets based on what I have put into the pot up to that point.

[Pascal]

The pot size should matter though, as obviously it affects our pot odds (as the pot gets bigger compared to the amount we have to call, the amount of equity we need for a +ev call gets smaller)

I think Shotglass thought you were saying "well I've put in over half my stack so I might as well call it off" without looking at pot odds etc.

[OngBonga]

Yeah how much you personally have put into a pot is irrelevant.

How big the pot is compared to the call, that is what is important.

I think the term "pot committed" is misunderstood by a great number of amateurs. People think "well I've put x amount in so I'm not folding now". This is bad thought process.

This hand is a great example. First of all we can see we have to call x amount to win y amount, that tells us how much equity we need to make money. In this case we need around 23% or something, can't be bothered to be accurate, so we'll say 25% after rake needed to profit.

Thus, if we have 25% equity or more vs villain's range, then we're pot committed. If we have less, we're not pot committed.

You should be able to figure out that what is of curcuial importance now is villain's range, not our investment. All our investment has done is give us better pot odds at the river. That might be enough to committ us, but not always.

Villain needs to have AJo in his range for us to be pot committed here.

[Cobra_1878]

That is definitely the biggest flaw in my game; trying to put villains on ranges, especially limp/callers. Does anyone have any tips on how I can improve it?

[MadMojoMonkey]

Always pay attention to the action. You don't know which hands are going to make it to showdown, and you need to be taking notes whenever anything "non-standard" happens. If you can, take notes while you review your hand history.

Personally, the limp-call pre is the strangest range for me to get a grip on, so I feel your pain.

[seven-deuce]

Personally, the limp-call pre is the strangest range for me to get a grip on, so I feel your pain.

This x1000

[Cobra_1878]

Always pay attention to the action. You don't know which hands are going to make it to showdown, and you need to be taking notes whenever anything "non-standard" happens. If you can, take notes while you review your hand history.

Personally, the limp-call pre is the strangest range for me to get a grip on, so I feel your pain.

As soon as a hand is finished and it's gone to showdown I bring it up so I can replay it and see what happened/take notes.

[OngBonga]

When a limpdonkey raises, he gives away more information than someone who always raises when he enters a pot. It should be easier to put this guy on a range when he raises than if I raise into you.

This guy has JJ+ AQo+ ATs+... and some of TT AJo KQs. It is a little tricky, because there are different ranges that make up 6%, and different people have different ideas of which hand between KQs and AJo is better.
But if someone with 23/20 stats raises, well there's a lot of suited crap that raises with some frequency and folds the rest of the time. It's much harder to put someone on a range when they're capable of playing 64s many different ways pre flop.

Fish like this, they pretty much raising the top 6% and limp/calling suited connectors, broadway, Ax and 22-99. It's that transparent. The only unknown quantity is what this fish considers to be the top 6%. Maybe he l/c KQs and raises 99, maybe the other way round. But it's much more transparent than a good player's range.

[OngBonga]

lol at my post relative to a sample of 31.

Bigger sample required to put this guy on a solid range. But where villain is 23/6 over, say, 150 hands, well that post isn't so lol.

[Shotglass]

lol at my post relative to a sample of 31.

Yeah...31 is a small sample but it's still enough to show that the dude's a fish:
23/6
Played 7 hands
Raised 1 of those hands preflop (well the actual % worked out to be 1.86 hands but ya can't raise .86 hands).

[Miffed22001]

Not sure what games posters in the thread are playing here but we are good easily enough to make this call at these stakes given this opponent.
It certainly isn't a snap but is a call.
Also in reference to hand sample size - we only use this if it allows a decent conclusion to be drawn. Clearly the huge difference between VPIP and PFR shows us that we are playing a player we can generally class as loose/passive or at least someone playing too many hands. This villain play for stacks much wider than I think a lot of people are suggesting in this thread IMO