To Donk or Not To Donk...

[DoubleJ]

...that is the question

Villain is VP 21, PF 16, Steal 23, Agg 5.3 Flop cBet 50 over 457, pretty standard TAG.

Should i lead out here when i hit my set, or should i check and give him the chance to cBet/rep the Q?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from

FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($2.93)
SB ($5)
Hero (BB) ($5)
UTG ($4.21)
MP ($8.91)
CO ($12.79)

Preflop: Hero is BB with

3,3
3 folds, Button bets $0.15, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.32) 2, 3, Q (2 players)
Hero ???

[gotigers1234]

I would just bet out... Dude could have rag Ax that this flop hits for a low str8 draw or he could have a higher pocket pair like 88, 99 and checking here let's him play perfect and possibly draw out on you and then likely you get stacked if he turns the the st8 or the higher set. Make this bastard pay to see another card.

[daven]

fold pre
as played check flop

[kickass]

fold pre

I agree with this but I've been thinking since RPMs bluff turn hand, where he corectly takes sets out of his villains range, because the board is to low, and regs don't call small pairs vs steals. But how are we supposed to rep big hands when we flop draws or when we think a bluff could take villain off of his weak range if we can't have sets in our range. calling pre is -ev in a vacume but doesn't the presence of these low pairs in our range strengthen our range as a whole when we choose to raise. I know I've been stacked a enough times in these spots to sets where i think villain isnt dumb enough to call 33 pre vs a steal cos he knows my range is weak but I don't seem to pay them off often in other spositions very often at all, people seem to spew alot in blind battles. Have I not finished this thought process. What am I missing?

[MadMojoMonkey]

To donk, or not to donk: that is the question:
Whether 'tis +EV at the table to check
To the pre-flop raisers and their outrageous fortune,
Or to bet into a rainbow flop,
And by raising felt them?

Bet 2/3's pot and shove to a raise. Villain is calling or raising if they caught the Q, and if Hero is behind at this point it's a set-over-set cooler. Hero sighs and pays the poker gods their rake.

If a 4 or 5 comes on the turn, Hero shuts down and check/calls. A4 and A5 are in Villains range here and the wheel draws are about the only thing Hero is worried about. Not worried enough to fold, though.

If no 4 or 5 on turn, bet 2/3's pot again and shove to a raise. If an A comes and Villain has 54, Hero reminds himself to wear a bib next time he plays and cleans up the puke.

If the board pairs or any 7+ comes on the river, move Villain all-in. If river comes 4,5, 6, or A, check/call.

[kickass]

I think that is all terrible advice.

[Icanhastreebet]

Easiest flop check ever. I would almost never have a donking range on this board except v people who check back a fucking shitload and play really weak v donks.

[d0zer]

yeah even with a fairly low c-bet % from villain, we have to expect him to c-bet this dry board a bunch. If he doesn't, he's probably planning on bluff-catching so we might get 2 streets on the turn/river if we're lucky. If he bets flop, c/c.

Either way, this hand is often going to demonstrate how our implied odds suck in this spot.

[MadMojoMonkey]

I think that is all terrible advice.

*sigh* OK, let me try again.

Hero has 33 in the BB. Villain raises 3bb from the BTN in steal situation. Villain's ATS is 23%; put villain's range on 25% in the stove:
{ 66+,A2s+,K6s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,A7o+,K9o+,QTo+,JTo }

Pokerstove has Hero at 46% equity at this point, so the revised implied odds for all winning hands (not just set mining) is:
(54/46)*0.10 - 0.22 = -0.10 ; Hero is priced in without implied odds.

Woweee! Hero flops middle set. Now, how to extract value:

How am I doing so far?

[acg123]

I donkey like .20 and pray he raises. His range is wide so you are ahead all you can do is put as much money in the pot while your ahead as you can.

[Imthenewfish]

*sigh* OK, let me try again.

Hero has 33 in the BB. Villain raises 3bb from the BTN in steal situation. Villain's ATS is 23%; put villain's range on 25% in the stove:
{ 66+,A2s+,K6s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,A7o+,K9o+,QTo+,JTo }

Pokerstove has Hero at 46% equity at this point, so the revised implied odds for all winning hands (not just set mining) is:
(54/46)*0.10 - 0.22 = -0.10 ; Hero is priced in without implied odds.

Woweee! Hero flops middle set. Now, how to extract value:

How am I doing so far?

why does 46% equity matter if we aren't all in?

[MadMojoMonkey]

The 46% equity means that Hero is only a slight dog. The amount to win if no more money goes into the pot is +EV to make the call and defend the blind.

I was thinking through what implied odds dictate Hero needs to win to make a +EV call pre-flop. I found out that Hero is priced in to call, and does not need implied odds, so any post-flop win is +EV.

Hero doesn't have to worry about extracting some minimum value from Villain. Taking a line like, "float the pre-flop steal attempt / take a shot at the flop" makes a lot of sense. Discouraging this villain from further steal attempts might be the big win Hero gets from this hand. If Hero gets called down, he has showdown value all day.

Is the general opinion that Hero is so far ahead that allowing Villain to take a free card is the best option?

I'm still trying to figure out what was so terrible about my analysis.

[d0zer]

preflop equity is used to calculate simple, arithmetic all-in spots. Deeper stacked poker with manies behind requires thinking about your hand's playability given the depth, your position, your postflop edge on villain -- shit like that. preflop equity becomes less and less relevant the deeper you get.

The extreme example is a horrible player opens UTG and we can put him on {AA}, and we have a pocket pair less than AA on the BU, our preflop equity is only 20% but we're deep and folding is horrible.

That's the tip of the iceburg of what's wrong with your analysis.

[d0zer]

Villain is VP 21, PF 16, Steal 23, Agg 5.3 Flop cBet 50 over 457, pretty standard TAG.

How is someone playing 21/16 with only a 23% steal a std tagg? are all taggs at these stakes positionally unaware?

[MadMojoMonkey]

That's the tip of the iceberg of what's wrong with your analysis.

Well, please dig into it and tell me specifics. I have offered reasons behind all of my choices. The terse, non-descriptive criticism that I am getting is hard to take a solid lesson from.

Maybe it's my own fault for speculating why we're in this pot OOP with 3's, which is not the OP's question.

So we find ourselves in this position on the flop. We are almost definitely ahead, and we're NOT betting? Why are we trying to be tricky OOP on a micro-stakes table?

[tiltingdonkey]

Well, please dig into it and tell me specifics. I have offered reasons behind all of my choices. The terse, non-descriptive criticism that I am getting is hard to take a solid lesson from.

Maybe it's my own fault for speculating why we're in this pot OOP with 3's, which is not the OP's question.

So we find ourselves in this position on the flop. We are almost definitely ahead, and we're NOT betting? Why are we trying to be tricky OOP on a micro-stakes table?

This is just an opinion, but leading here is actually being tricky instead of checking which is standard.

I would be surprised if villain is not cbetting on such a dry board, even with that low cbet frequency. Plus I am assuming that the cbet stats is across all positions and not from late position alone. With such low frequencies you will almost find the distribution skewed towards LP (at least that's what my database tells me).

If he's not cbetting I doubt you're gonna get anything more from villain if you donk, while mid-PPs "most probably" fold to a donk and A-high hands will definitely fold which could have taken a stab if checked to so I don't see the benefit of donking imo.

[Luco]

yeah even with a fairly low c-bet % from villain, we have to expect him to c-bet this dry board a bunch. If he doesn't, he's probably planning on bluff-catching so we might get 2 streets on the turn/river if we're lucky. If he bets flop, c/c.

Either way, this hand is often going to demonstrate how our implied odds suck in this spot.

+1

[DoubleJ]

How is someone playing 21/16 with only a 23% steal a std tagg?

Soz d0zer - i did say "pretty" standard; there were a couple of anomalous stats (lo steal, lo cBet) which were the reason for the OP

My assumption was that they were due to small sample.

do you have another view?

[Luco]

What about leading the turn instead? Thoughts?

[acg123]

What about leading the turn instead? Thoughts?

C-c donk turn? I think its good line vs. Say a MP range. But BTN range is fairly wide and idk we will get called often.

[d0zer]

So we find ourselves in this position on the flop. We are almost definitely ahead, and we're NOT betting? Why are we trying to be tricky OOP on a micro-stakes table?

Checking to the aggressive-enough preflop raiser isn't being 'tricky', it's completely standard. I've already outlined why I think it's good here.

[d0zer]

Soz d0zer - i did say "pretty" standard; there were a couple of anomalous stats (lo steal, lo cBet) which were the reason for the OP

My assumption was that they were due to small sample.

do you have another view?

450ish hands you said in the OP? that's more than enough for steal% and flop cbet to converge reasonably well enough. What we can take out of this, is that his LP opening range isn't as wide as most reg's. He must be getting his PFR up with EP opens that are too wide or with 3bets.

As for his cbet%, he probably checks back a lot, like JJ on this board, he's probably not c-betting really coordinated flops, and maybe only when he connects, has a decent draw or a really dry flop (like this one).

[DoubleJ]

450ish hands you said in the OP? that's more than enough for steal% and flop cbet to converge reasonably well enough.

That's good to know - thx

What we can take out of this, is that his LP opening range isn't as wide as most reg's. He must be getting his PFR up with EP opens that are too wide

yes, you're right.

Total VP/PFR is 21/16, but positionally it's:
EP: 25/25
MP: 15/14
CO: 19/15
BT: 28/17
SB: 24/16
BB: 19/5

[d0zer]

steal % should converge faster than flop cbet%, so maybe we should be a little wary of interpreting the 50% as "he's rarely c-bet bluffing". The other thing we have to be aware of is that at the micros, there's a lot more multi-way pots which will dissuade cbet bluffs, so that could account for the lower cbet% also.

[MadMojoMonkey]

The goal is to extract maximum value on this hand, yes?

When we catch a set OOP, our plan is to check it down and never bet? I am not trying to be stupid here (it just comes naturally); I just don't get it. This sounds like a more -EV play than perhaps getting Villain to fold 77+ or Qx.

I can understand the line of checking the flop if we're baiting Villain into bluffing. We are likely so far ahead here that we can let Villain peel one if it goes check/check. Check/call is deceptive, as it doesn't reveal much about our hand.

If it goes check/bet/call on the flop, then shouldn't we be betting the turn to protect our hand, get value from worse, and put tough decisions to the stealer?

If it goes check/check then don't we want to bet the turn no matter what? Is it really best to give Villain 2 free cards here? Don't we maintain deception since we should be betting to take down an uncontested pot anyway?

I don't understand why we're averse to taking down the pot on any later street.

[d0zer]

I've already outlined why we check flop. Yes if flop checks through we bet turn & river, nobody's suggested checking it down and never betting.

turn is kinda interesting if we c/c flop, I think I'd check another total blank, but bet anything that puts a FD or Q-based straight draw on cuz it gives villain more combos he can call with and we don't know he'll bet those himself.

[Imthenewfish]

Well, please dig into it and tell me specifics. I have offered reasons behind all of my choices. The terse, non-descriptive criticism that I am getting is hard to take a solid lesson from.

What happens if we call and we don't flop a set? we still have showdown value vs a lot of his range that missed, but we're going to be in a tough spot out of position. preflop equity isn't really relevent unless you're all in or unless your plan is to c/c to showdown (assuming your opponent doesn't open fold on any streets), DUCY?

The goal is to extract maximum value on this hand, yes?

When we catch a set OOP, our plan is to check it down and never bet? I am not trying to be stupid here (it just comes naturally); I just don't get it. This sounds like a more -EV play than perhaps getting Villain to fold 77+ or Qx.our plan isn't to check it down

I can understand the line of checking the flop if we're baiting Villain into bluffing. We are likely so far ahead here that we can let Villain peel one if it goes check/check. Check/call is deceptive, as it doesn't reveal much about our hand.we check/call flop because villain is betting a larger range than he's calling with. deception doesn't really have anything to do with our plan anywhere in this hand

If it goes check/bet/call on the flop, then shouldn't we be betting the turn to protect our hand, get value from worse, and put tough decisions to the stealer?will villain bet more than he'll call with?

If it goes check/check then don't we want to bet the turn no matter what? Is it really best to give Villain 2 free cards here? Don't we maintain deception since we should be betting to take down an uncontested pot anyway? noone is advocating checking to showdown for deception

I don't understand why we're averse to taking down the pot on any later street.

[DoubleJ]

turn is kinda interesting if we c/c flop...

here ya go, then...

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($2.93)
SB ($5)
Hero (BB) ($5)
UTG ($4.21)
MP ($8.91)
CO ($12.79)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3, 3
3 folds, Button bets $0.15, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.32) 2,3, Q (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

Turn: ($0.32) Q (2 players)
Hero ???

[d0zer]

we didn't c/c flop, flop checked thru. now it's an uninteresting bet/bet

[OngBonga]

This is why we're folding pre, because villain rarely has something he pays us with when it's a BU steal from a 21/16. His range is too wide for us to setmine.

As played, I c/c turn, villain has air like always here, only way we're getting any value here is by letting him bluff. I might bet like 10th of the pot or something stupid on river, hoping for a stupid raise.

[DoubleJ]

now it's an uninteresting bet/bet

ooops.

sorry. misread yer post

[MadMojoMonkey]

This is why we're folding pre, because villain rarely has something he pays us with when it's a BU steal from a 21/16. His range is too wide for us to setmine.

If Villain wont call when Hero bets for value, then Villain wont call when Hero bluffs; Hero has fold equity post-flop.

Playing a heads up pot OOP is much better than raising from the CO and facing 4 calls. If Hero thinks he outplays this villain after the flop; Hero has exploitation equity.

A setmine is not Hero's only equity in this situation.

[d0zer]

If Villain wont call when Hero bets for value, then Villain wont call when Hero bluffs; Hero has fold equity post-flop.

Playing a heads up pot OOP is much better than raising from the CO and facing 4 calls. If Hero thinks he outplays this villain after the flop; Hero has exploitation equity.

A setmine is not Hero's only equity in this situation.

Now you're getting somewhere, but think about how much equity 33 has turned into a bluff vs something like QTs on various board textures.