A question on implied odds

[Socristotle]

Villain is weak/tight (23/6 over 185 hands; never steals, and has not 3bet at all up to this point.) So we know he is way ahead with QQ+, AK. Have i made the correct decision thus far and if so, do we proceed? We can assume my KQs is a blocker for any AKs he may have on this flop, correct?

Everleaf No-Limit Hold'em, $0.04 BB (6 handed) - Everleaf Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($4.15)
BB ($3.88)
Hero (UTG) ($9.83)
MP ($2.13)
CO ($3.49)
Button ($9.98)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K, Q
Hero bets $0.12, MP raises $0.28, 4 folds, Hero calls $0.16

Flop: ($0.62) 6, 5, 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $0.62, Hero ??

[daviddem]

we know he is way ahead with QQ+, AK. Have i made the correct decision

Is this a level? You just answered your own question.

You don't have implied odds with a dominated hand like KsQs against a half-stacked nit, if that was your rationale for calling the 3b. In general, do not flat 3bets OOP unless you have a good reason to (especially against nits).

Fold the flop also, he would not pot an AK here imo, meaning you have 0 fold equity.

If AK was in his range you could check-shove it.

[rpm]

this should help shed some light on the situation. have a look at this thread. then apply what you learn to this hand, and report back telling us if you think calling is +EV, -EV or neutral EV.

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ws-173190.html

[Socristotle]

The reason i called the 3bet was for flush value, knowing villain would likely stack off and isn't playing any drawing hands except for AKs, which obviously can't be spades. Perhaps this is my first error? Is playing for a flush enough to call? If I was on the button and it was folded to me after his raise, would it be any better knowing his range? (QQ+AKs,AK)

Either way, I call and the flop gives me a flush draw. The pot is 15.5 and villain c bets the pot size: 15.5+15.5= 31. Our odds are 31:15.5 or 2:1. Assuming we can get the rest of his stack if we call (another 31 BB) we get 62:15.5 or about 4:1 implied odds.

Now this is where i get a bit confused. My odds of hitting a flush on the turn are 38:9 or 4.2:1, making this the wrong call, or marginal at best. But if i plug the numbers into poker stove, it gives me about 42% equity vs. his range(QQ+, AK). Now would calling be correct?

I know this is a ton of questions, and i really appreciate all of you who take the time to help out!

[daven]

fold pre. Not even remotely close. Villain is 50bb deep. If you think villain's range is nutted then you don't have flush odds, dumb odds, spew odds, whatever you choose to call them odds.

[daven]

The reason i called the 3bet was for flush value,

bad.

Now this is where i get a bit confused. My odds of hitting a flush on the turn are 38:9 or 4.2:1, making this the wrong call, or marginal at best. But if i plug the numbers into poker stove, it gives me about 42% equity vs. his range(QQ+, AK).

this is because hitting a Q on the turn/river beats the AK in his range, and hitting a K beats the QQ in his range.

[rpm]

i guess i should say that i only looked at the flop and the question of implied odds in my response. i agree that we should be folding preflop because we are in bad bad shape against this 3b range, and he is only 50bb deep so we are going to be roped into stacking off in a lot of not-nice situations on the flop and turn when we make a pair.

[daviddem]

To add water to the mill, if you call KsQs in this spot only for flush value, then you might as well play any two suited cards. Do you suggest this is a good idea?

To answer your questions:
- no it is not a good idea to call a single raise on the button against this range, even if he was full stacked, and probably not even if you were 100% sure he would donate his entire 100bb stack when you hit your flush (hints: you only flop a flush draw about 11% of the time, and if that happens you will still only hit your flush by the river 35% of the time, flush draws are easy to spot, so the implied odds associated with them are less than you think, implied odds are also less when you are OOP, and implied odds are also less against tight players)
- what do you mean "the pot is 15.5?" Was this 100nl?
- your odds calcs are correct. Calling is marginally wrong if you assume he will stack off 100% of the time if you hit on the turn. But since he does most likely not always stack off, this is more than marginally wrong.
- what Pokerstove gives you are your odds of hitting by the river (two cards), not your odds of hitting on the turn. And again, you should not include AK in his flop range after he bet full pot (at the very least, you should certainly not include all 12 combos of AK).

[daviddem]

And as rpm said above, there is also the problem of reverse implied odds when you hit a pair.

[Socristotle]

- no it is not a good idea to call a single raise on the button against this range, even if he was full stacked, and probably not even if you were 100% sure he would donate his entire 100bb stack when you hit your flush (hints: you only flop a flush draw about 11% of the time, and if that happens you will still only hit your flush by the river 35% of the time, flush draws are easy to spot, so the implied odds associated with them are less than you think, implied odds are also less when you are OOP, and implied odds are also less against tight players)

Thank you for this! Although this is obvious in hindsight, (I know all of this, the hard part is putting it together in 15 seconds, i guess) it makes me think twice about the spewy calls I've been making. Thanks again everyone, this is the best feedback yet!

[Shotglass]

Villain is weak/tight (23/6 over 185 hands; never steals, and has not 3bet at all up to this point.)

This should have been your first sign to get out of the hand.

You'll make less spewy calls by learning a decent preflop strategy and how you should apply that against different opponents.