Dumb people believe in downswings

[givememyleg]

Dumb People Believe in Downswings « Poker Blogs

Thoughts? Are you a fool who believes in downswings?

[Sorcery11]

I read this book called The Alchemist. In it, an Arabic phrase "Maktub" is used repeatedly. Maktub means "It is written." Every time I am all-in I am reminded of this phrase.

The fate of the current hand is already determined, and whatever happens is supposed to happen so why should you worry? I really do believe in this, and as a result I have almost no anxiety whatsoever over the outcomes of all-in encounters.

[givememyleg]

I read this book called The Alchemist. In it, an Arabic phrase "Maktub" is used repeatedly. Maktub means "It is written." Every time I am all-in I am reminded of this phrase.

The fate of the current hand is already determined, and whatever happens is supposed to happen so why should you worry? I really do believe in this, and as a result I have almost no anxiety whatsoever over the outcomes of all-in encounters.

Never read the book you mentioned, but... A+! You might be the smartest person ever with 3 posts. Keep on posting, playa!

[PlayToWin]

It depends on how you define a downswing. If I look at a graph that slopes downward for 16 buy-ins, I'd say that's a downswing. What would you call it?

Edit: I didn't read the link before I posted. I guess that's an interesting way to make your point ....

[givememyleg]

It depends on how you define a downswing. If I look at a graph that slopes downward for 16 buy-ins, I'd say that's a downswing. What would you call it?

Edit: I didn't read the link before I posted. I guess that's an interesting way to make your point ....

You guess, eh?

[EasyPoker]

The only truth is the hand you are playing. The rest is all fabricated by our minds.

etc

[OngBonga]

So a downswing doesn't exist because it's in the past. I can't help thinking this logic is fatally flawed.

I see upswings and downswings like the tides. There's average sea level, then there's high tide and low tide. But the average always remains the same.

We're nearly always either upswinging or downswinging, the tide is either coming in or out. Rarely are we actually balanced with probability over a small sample. Sometimes the downswing lasts longer than we would hope, that's ok because if we play enough hands, then we'll enjoy an upswing that will last longer than it should.

The incoming tide exists, even when the tide is out.

[givememyleg]

The only truth is the hand you are playing. The rest is all fabricated by our minds.

etc

haha, yeah this. I guess the post could have been replaced with these 2 sentences + etc.

So a downswing doesn't exist because it's in the past. I can't help thinking this logic is fatally flawed.

I see upswings and downswings like the tides. There's average sea level, then there's high tide and low tide. But the average always remains the same.

We're nearly always either upswinging or downswinging, the tide is either coming in or out. Rarely are we actually balanced with probability over a small sample. Sometimes the downswing lasts longer than we would hope, that's ok because if we play enough hands, then we'll enjoy an upswing that will last longer than it should.

The incoming tide exists, even when the tide is out.

Nope, the bold is the part that is the most incorrect. We're just playing. And if you play correctly over a long period, you will win. It's as simple as that. We're not on an upswing or downswing at any point, they just exist when you look back.

[BooG690]

GMML...writing?

inb4 FTR quality of writing downswing.

[BooG690]

Oh, and read #3: http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ml#post1853301

[Openside]

The fate of the current hand is already determined, and whatever happens is supposed to happen so why should you worry? I really do believe in this, and as a result I have almost no anxiety whatsoever over the outcomes of all-in encounters.

Never read the book you mentioned, but... A+! You might be the smartest person ever with 3 posts. Keep on posting, playa!

Lol i hope your reply was a level. Fate/predestination is a crutch for the weak. Its tantamount to the fish at the tables crying that online poker is rigged.

[Smith]

I follow the Asha'rite school of thought, and it "is" only, because Allah wishes it so.

[givememyleg]

Lol i hope your reply was a level. Fate/predestination is a crutch for the weak. Its tantamount to the fish at the tables crying that online poker is rigged.

you can't argue with allah. game over, man.

edit - i also took it as "when you get your money in the cards are set so don't fret" kind of a thing.

[givememyleg]

GMML...writing?

inb4 FTR quality of writing downswing.

things sure have gone down hill since you left.

Oh, and read #3: http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ml#post1853301

very cool, will link to that in my article, hadn't seen that before. i like the way he explains it.

[Smith]

you can't argue with allah. game over, man.

edit - i also took it as "when you get your money in the cards are set so don't fret" kind of a thing.

(not religious)
Basically, I've seen people practically kill themselves over worrying. Worrying can actually cause disease and bad health affects. Let the world flow around you!

That reminds me YouTube - Wu Tang Clan "C.R.E.A.M."

[kickass]

there is fate when it comes to cards they are predestined. The cards are waiting for us to see they're just unknown to us, they still exist before we know them. Thats fate motherfuckers
YEAH or not.... this is dumb.

downswings are only patterns in our winning and loosing, the hand we are playing is not part of those patterns until its done.

[surviva316]

so true story. like a year back i was listening to my itunes on shuffle, 4 tabling hold themz and playing mafia wars on facebook. i wasn't getting dealt shit in holdem, had lost like 5 of my last 6 fights against lesser opponents in mafia wars and my itunes was playing the worst music i have in my library.

i declared in irc that RNGs hated me that day and got a bet going laying 3:1 odds that it would take me a half hour to find an abra in the grassy area next to cerulean city ($17 dollars to villain if i found one, $51 to me if i didn't). found 2 of the first 3 pokemangz i ran into were abras, so i lost the bet, but technically ran good with the rng.

was this a downswing or an upswing?!

[Roid_Rage]

Depends on how bad you wanted them Abra's ldo.

[supa]

Lol i hope your reply was a level. Fate/predestination is a crutch for the weak. Its tantamount to the fish at the tables crying that online poker is rigged.

I don't think you could be more wrong about this. Everything is pre determined in poker. The odds are predetermined (AA is gonna win x% verses a certain number of players over time) as are the cards once they've been shuffled. We may not know the order of the cards in the deck, but they're still in a predetermined order before they're dealt.

*Didn't read the link so f' me if this is off base.

[daviddem]

I don't think you could be more wrong about this. Everything is pre determined in poker. The odds are predetermined (AA is gonna win x% verses a certain number of players over time) as are the cards once they've been shuffled. We may not know the order of the cards in the deck, but they're still in a predetermined order before they're dealt.

*Didn't read the link so f' me if this is off base.

Quantum physicists would say otherwise. Not about poker, but about the world in general. Schroedinger's cat anyone?

Then in online poker I suspect that the deck is not in a predetermined order. The next card is decided at the time it is dealt by random number generators. If it was dealt 1/100th of a second later (or otherwise differently affected by any of the other random factors that the random number generator is using), it would be a different card.

I read this book called The Alchemist. In it, an Arabic phrase "Maktub" is used repeatedly. Maktub means "It is written." Every time I am all-in I am reminded of this phrase.

The fate of the current hand is already determined, and whatever happens is supposed to happen so why should you worry? I really do believe in this, and as a result I have almost no anxiety whatsoever over the outcomes of all-in encounters.

As I said above, in online poker, the outcome of the hand is probably not determined before the RNG decides what the last card will be. The reason that you shouldn't worry about it is not whether it is predetermined or not. It is that there is nothing you can do to influence the outcome.

[PlayToWin]

Everything is pre determined in poker....as are the cards once they've been shuffled. We may not know the order of the cards in the deck, but they're still in a predetermined order before they're dealt.

The cards are dealt randomly, so the order cannot be predetermined.
Predetermined - 1. To determine, decide, or establish in advance.

[bikes]

cards are not predetermined online. the rng continues to shuffle until the last action is complete

[thelorax]

so the timing of ones actions effect the outcome of the deal.. thus making one responsible, in some way, for the outcome of the hand...

[mbiz]

Upswing and downswing describe the short term variance of an overall trend. Obviously the trend is whats important but i dont think the terms are inaccurate.

Being able to distinguish between short and long term downswing (good play but losing) and poor trending (bad play) is the issue amirite?

Also the predetermined nature (or lack of it) of cards coming out is irellevant since either way you have no idea what the card will be and the probabilities dont change.

[Smith]

so the timing of ones actions effect the outcome of the deal.. thus making one responsible, in some way, for the outcome of the hand...

Yes, that's why when you get sucked out on, it's your own damn fault for clicking the button too soon or too late.

[thelorax]

Yes, that's why when you get sucked out on, it's your own damn fault for clicking the button too soon or too late.

Haha my thoughts exactly.
Responsible for your own- potentially nonexistent- "downswings"