10NL, rate the bluff

[couriermike]

Villain is 22/17/1 over 200 hands. He seems good, like he could fold an overpair here which is what I think he has most of the time. OK bluff spot?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

Hero (Button) ($11.69)
SB ($17.46)
BB ($18.76)
UTG ($10.75)
MP ($33.20)
CO ($14.10)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, J
UTG bets $0.30, MP calls $0.30, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.30, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.05) 2, 7, 3 (3 players)
UTG bets $0.60, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.60

Turn: ($2.25) 6 (2 players)
UTG bets $1.60, Hero calls $1.60

River: ($5.45) 5 (2 players)
UTG bets $3.30, Hero raises to $9.19 (All-In)

[Donachello]

hate it. raise the turn

[daviddem]

I don't know if you are repping that much, you would need to have a 4 at this point to have a straight and that seems a bit unlikely. Would you play A4s this way?

That leaves sets, but would you not raise the turn with a set here?

[!Luck]

M2M is going to lose it.

Hate it.

[kmind]

Hate it. Starting at preflop.

[Micro2Macro]

M2M is going to lose it.

Hate it.

bahahaha

I was trying to think of a constructive response to this thread before anyone else got here.

still thinking.

[Johnny Cashout]

if anything, raise the turn with new outs

[lukem1990uk]

preflop call = bad
flop call = worse
turn call = should raise
river shove = Donk

one of the worst bluffs ive seen BWAHAHA

[spoonitnow]

I don't see the point...?

[daven]

I don't see the point...?

this
please explain all streets

[deucesomething]

preflop looks fine to me. flop is an easy fold.

[couriermike]

Preflop, I have the second best suited gapper which can flop alot of equity and great implied odds with an utg open and it being multi-way. So I like calling there. Squeezing is a bluff which seems like a waste of a good spot. So I call.

Flop is low. Utg could easily have missed and I have position. So I float.

Turn. We actually get some equity. When utg barrels, I think he has a hand almost always, probably an overpair to the board.

I don't like raising the turn because I don't think utg automatically folds his overpair here, and I don't like folding because we do have some equity and really great implied odds, somewhere between 9 and 15 outs. If we hit, I expect to stack him. So I call.

The river brings four to a straight. Utg bets again and the pot is pretty big. I would play 54s this way, and I think he might sigh fold an overpair, so I jam.

[couriermike]

That was my thinking. I thought it was +EV, almost compulsory when I got to the river. I don't think it's good necessarily, just what I thought. If you hate it, which is fine, what don't you like about it especially?

[Mr. Bucket]

How can you say you are stacking him when flush comes in, AND you think he is folding river?

If you play 45s this way that is a leak, fold pre.

Any more thoughts on why floating here is bad? I like his reasoning.

Pre depends alot on MP for me.

Preflop, I have the second best suited gapper which can flop alot of equity and great implied odds with an utg open and it being multi-way. So I like calling there. Squeezing is a bluff which seems like a waste of a good spot. So I call.

Flop is low. Utg could easily have missed and I have position. So I float.

Turn. We actually get some equity. When utg barrels, I think he has a hand almost always, probably an overpair to the board.

I don't like raising the turn because I don't think utg automatically folds his overpair here, and I don't like folding because we do have some equity and really great implied odds, somewhere between 9 and 15 outs. If we hit, I expect to stack him. So I call.

The river brings four to a straight. Utg bets again and the pot is pretty big. I would play 54s this way, and I think he might sigh fold an overpair, so I jam.

[!Luck]

What is the biggest mistake micro players do? They get married to hand.

[StarGrinder]

Yeah sorry dude, don't like it. It may have worked this one time but your typical 10nl villain will have a hard time folding after firing 3 barrels. And depending on your image, this could be a snap call with a lot of over-pairs.

[Micro2Macro]

raise flop

[Icanhastreebet]

fold the flop, lols

[Micro2Macro]

fold the flop, lols

f that he probably is opening like 15% utg

[cleanup.that]

I don't think it is that bad. If you have reads you have reads right?

I just want to say that villains range is not ALL big over pairs and nut type hands, a lot of posters seem to be overlooking this. Any top pair type hand could be taking bet/fold lines on the river (A7s,88+) and his range is definitely weighted towards these hands. He can also have random air here a small % of the time.

Taking villains entire range into consideration makes this river bluff seem like it may have some potential.

Another thing is his bet sizing particularly on the turn and river, don't scream strength to me. It looks like he knows that he is ahead of your calling range but probably will be smoked by your raising range, so he is attempting to control the size of the pot as well.

This river bluff may be marginal on it's own but if your reads are correct that he can fold over pairs/ weak 2 pairs enough then it is going to be +EV without a doubt.

Anyway, IIIFFF I was a gambling man I'd bet that he folded this river.

[cleanup.that]

I don't think it is that bad. If you have reads you have reads right?

I just want to say that villains range is not ALL big over pairs and nut type hands, a lot of posters seem to be overlooking this. Any top pair type hand could be taking bet/fold lines on the river (A7s,88+) and his range is definitely weighted towards these hands. He can also have random air here a small % of the time.

Taking villains entire range into consideration makes this river bluff seem like it may have some potential.

Another thing is his bet sizing particularly on the turn and river, don't scream strength to me. It looks like he knows that he is ahead of your calling range but probably will be smoked by your raising range, so he is attempting to control the size of the pot as well.

This river bluff may be marginal on it's own but if your reads are correct that he can fold over pairs/ weak 2 pairs enough then it is going to be +EV without a doubt.

Anyway, IIIFFF I was a gambling man I'd bet that he folded this river.

[manfredi]

Can anyone comment on the villain's aggression factor of 1, here? It seems I've read that generally indicates a player does not bluff very often, and this guy lead the flop, turn and river. Wouldn't three bets with air here be pretty unlikely?

22/17/1 looks like someone who is aggressive pre-flop and passive postflop?

I don't play 6-max, FWIW.

[kmind]

Preflop, I have the second best suited gapper which can flop alot of equity and great implied odds with an utg open and it being multi-way. So I like calling there. Squeezing is a bluff which seems like a waste of a good spot. So I call.

Do you usually call this not being multi-way? If so that's a leak in most cases.

Anyways, your hand sucks vs. UTG and with a caller in between it helps a tad bit but really only if the caller is a fish.

[cleanup.that]

Do you usually call this not being multi-way? If so that's a leak in most cases.

Anyways, your hand sucks vs. UTG and with a caller in between it helps a tad bit but really only if the caller is a fish.

His hand has a lot of equity against a standard UTG range from a 22/17. We are in POSITION, and the pot is multi-way.

Also the fact that it is multi-way will often help you get credit on post bluffs/semibluffs that you decide to run. As long as we are not playing too fit-or-fold post flop, this call should be profitable for most players.

[Mr. Bucket]

We have some equity, but we also have tons of reverse implied odds.

His hand has a lot of equity against a standard UTG range from a 22/17.

[kmind]

His hand has a lot of equity against a standard UTG range from a 22/17. We are in POSITION, and the pot is multi-way.

Also the fact that it is multi-way will often help you get credit on post bluffs/semibluffs that you decide to run. As long as we are not playing too fit-or-fold post flop, this call should be profitable for most players.

Disagree with your first paragraph. Sure it's a call if he's not positionally aware but if he is then his range is too tight and calling is a leak for like 95% of 10NLers. In theory, our range should be tighter than UTG. This includes small PP which should be the only hands we use as implied odds hands. Position is great but doesn't mean as much when UTG's range is really tight and our hand doesn't really have implied odds plus the fact of RIO.

The multi-way part is meh. Again, it depends on the cold caller.

And I would much rather have KJs than 54s here I admit that.

OP - you should not be playing 54s this way.

[Viscaro]

I think preflop its ok, you have position an suited broadway multiway. Having position should make up for the fact that you could be dominated by either player.

Flop call is pretty terrible. You rep really thin floating in this spot and I doubt you will get credit even if a scare card comes on the turn and he checks to you. Even if you hit a pair you have no idea if its good if he continues barreling at you.

On the turn you pick up some flush outs, and also you think you have gained bluff outs if the straight comes in, based on your read. Calling seems fine. Would prefer a raise (smallish) as he seldom ships over and sometimes folds so you dont need to hit.

On the river you hit one of your 'bluff outs'. However he has already bet and now has less that $5 remaining in his stack. Is he really folding any non air hand given pot odds (better than 3:1)? Do you think your line reps a 4 or 89 strongly? Others have already mentioned his low agr of 1.0, making air unlikely to be in his range given 4 streets of betting.

[Shotglass]

PF is ok...cold calling an UTG raise + a call from MP is practically screaming something bigger than 54s, so the bluff looses all believability PF.

Flop sucks, Granted it's low and he could have missed, so a float to 4th might be ok...but really, what are you hoping for here: to pull a K and get out kicked. Since you've anounced a big hand by your PF actions, and a non-agressive UTG continues betting out... easy fold.

Turn, with the outs for the flush I'd click raise and see how he reacts.

River, easy fold, missed the FD and he's still firing away.

[cleanup.that]

Disagree with your first paragraph. Sure it's a call if he's not positionally aware but if he is then his range is too tight and calling is a leak for like 95% of 10NLers. In theory, our range should be tighter than UTG. This includes small PP which should be the only hands we use as implied odds hands. Position is great but doesn't mean as much when UTG's range is really tight and our hand doesn't really have implied odds plus the fact of RIO.

The multi-way part is meh. Again, it depends on the cold caller.

And I would much rather have KJs than 54s here I admit that.

OP - you should not be playing 54s this way.

This is like 12% UTG, which is probably pretty close to his range.


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.698% 56.18% 01.52% 142375658 3842866.50 { 22+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 1: 42.302% 40.79% 01.52% 103359601 3842866.50 { KhJh }

So we have 42% equity, 100bbs stacks and position. Domination is not that big of an issue since this is cash and we have relatively deep stacks compared to most tourney situations. It's not like we are going go crazy and get all in every time we flop top pair right?

As long as we are confident in our post flop abilities we will be able to profitably play here. For players who are just learning or struggling though, calling will probably be a leak.

[daven]

Preflop, I have the second best suited gapper which can flop alot of equity and great implied odds with an utg open and it being multi-way. So I like calling there. Squeezing is a bluff which seems like a waste of a good spot. So I call.

with reasoning the call becomes ok, it's not ok if you're doing it without thinking = why i asked folding is obviously fine too.

Flop is low. Utg could easily have missed and I have position. So I float.

i don't like the float because i doubt you're really going to be betting most turns when checked to = no longer a float.

Turn. We actually get some equity. When utg barrels, I think he has a hand almost always, probably an overpair to the board.I don't like raising the turn because I don't think utg automatically folds his overpair here, and I don't like folding because we do have some equity and really great implied odds, somewhere between 9 and 15 outs. If we hit, I expect to stack him. So I call.

do you have enough immplied odds here you think? you think you're stacking when you hit, but then you think he's folding when you miss?

The river brings four to a straight. Utg bets again and the pot is pretty big. I would play 54s this way, and I think he might sigh fold an overpair, so I jam

so, instead of exploiting biggest leak of poker = call too much you decide to aim for villain lacking the 2nd biggest leak = the inability to read hands.

Your thought process makes this better than it would have been otherwise, but i still think it's far from optimal and generally a bad spot unless you've seen villain bet-fold rivers getting 2:1...

[couriermike]

Thanks for the feedback, daven.

[daviddem]

...unless you've seen villain bet-fold rivers getting 2:1...

He is getting 3.43:1 or 22.55% pot odds if I calculated this properly, taking into account that his stack is $0.94 shorter than ours. He has to call $4.95 and the total pot after his call would be $21.95.

[Icanhastreebet]

...Fold the flop like seriously this has to be the easiest flop fold I've ever seen. You have like the worst hand you can possibly have here for 1.
For 2 You seriously have like 0 equity and some reverse implied odds especially since if you can't fold Khigh you won't fold w/ a J or K rolls offs and you're dominated. Once you call the flop you should be raising this turn especially since a set would raise this turn 100% and that's like the only hand you rep with a river shove.
Number 3, he c-bet into 2players. This makes his range significantly stronger and if you don't think decreasing your equity by more then 10% is significant you have some serious problems.
Number 4, You aren't going to be exploited if you fold the BOTTOM of your range. There's TONNES of hands here you can peel with, hell I'd like this a tonne more if you had like TT and turned it into a bluff ON THE TURN, not the river cause that's really bad.(Don't go turning TT into bluffs people until you know why)

Okay so m2m says to raise the flop because so many bad 22/17s are opening really wide UTG. This is probably +eV IF he is opening really wide so if you're notes/pop up stats say otherwise then this play also becomes very bad once again especially because he c-bet into 3 people.

Cliffs, If you are going to flat raise pre w/ a marginal hand that may be a bad flat in the first place(we had no idea what kind of range to assign to UTG or ccer). Then you butcher that hand on the flop, then butcher it on the turn and end up making spewy river shoves where people generally will never fold even if they planned on b/fing @ stakes below like 400NL because like NOBODY but the nittiest/best players are capable of folding for this price then please, for the sake of baby jesus just fold pre-flop. It's that simple.

fwiw, if you don't want to fold this, and UTG is a tiny bit loose and ccer never has monsters, just squeeze. It'll show a much larger profit then flatting and playing bad.

[couriermike]

Thanks for everybody's comments. It's funny how things can seem so rational in the midddle of a hand and maybe not so much after the fact. Villain had 54s so the bluff never had a chance. Oh, well, next hand.

[Shotglass]

It's funny how things can seem so rational in the midddle of a hand and maybe not so much after the fact.

I have quite a few of those "oh shit!" moments myself

[Micro2Macro]

the hand isn't played as bad as you guys are making it out to be prior to the river jam

pretty cool to see you take a real creative line though OP, that's potential to be a big player right there.

[Carroters]

No idea why we'd wanna raise the turn here. I hate the flop, and river don't mind other streets. Think about how strong his range is on the turn when he barrels this blank having being called after c betting multiway on this board. Then compare implied odds to FE on the turn, one is evidently better than the other and it is this that makes the river so horrible.

[deadstraddl3]

I don't like raising the turn because I don't think utg automatically folds his overpair here, and I don't like folding because we do have some equity and really great implied odds, somewhere between 9 and 15 outs. If we hit, I expect to stack him. So I call.

I don't understand how you can expect to stack villian if you hit, and at the same time expect him to fold to a bluff. Everyone has pretty well covered everything, it seems. Sucks he had 54s though, might work against a few other hands.

I can't imagine many people at 10NL betting anything with marginal showdown value on that river though.

[daven]

pretty cool to see you take a real creative line though OP,

this, particularly cool as you had a decent thought process going on vs just mashing buttons (= why i asked for the explanation, cos it's hard to distinguish sometimes)

[couriermike]

thanks, guys. i thought the 4-straight might change it from an implied odds spot to a fold equity spot but it never got tested.