AA more interesting - 25nl

[daven]

original raiser is 29-7 over 20 or something equally unknown. Reads are he is uber-fish cos stacksize + unknown at 25nl
bb cold-caller is reg who wants to be a troublemaker but forgets he's 15-tabling (then again, i proably am too). He's 17-10 with 1.4% 3b. Plays pretty straight-forward.

preflop is pretty standard, although it's a bit big. If either blind had even a grain of 3b in them then flat is something i'll do a bit of too cos even if they both fold i'm in a good situation with disguised AA vs pfr and spr is fine.

Flop is pretty gross. Like, i'll get it in against pfr pretty happily, but i'm not so excited about the bb - his range is probably something like 99-QQ/AK/AQ. No need to worry about flush draws when i hold that ace.
Call is standard? what's my plan if blind calls? what about HU to turn?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP ($15.66)
CO ($27.62)
Hero (Button) ($27.92)
SB ($28.19)
BB ($56.55)
UTG ($26.43)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, A
1 fold, MP bets $0.75, 1 fold, Hero raises to $2.60, 1 fold, BB calls $2.35, MP calls $1.85

Flop: ($7.90) J, 2, Q (3 players)
BB checks, MP bets $2, Hero calls $2

[kfaess]

Ok so this is pretty interesting and I'm not really sure what to do. The original raiser (fish) bets out after the BB checks so he probably doesn't have complete air, but I think he could have a hand as bad as JT.

If BB had a hand I wouldn't expect him to check because you can never count on a (passive) fish to bet and he can't expect you to always fire a bet when you miss because the (stationy) fish is in the hand. However, we don't know if he's thinking like this. If BB c/r I think its a pretty easy snap fold.

I don't really see much value in raising right now. If we make a small raise (small because of fish's stack size) and BB shoves, we have to fold imo. If we call and BB raises, we should fold imo. If we raise and BB folds and the fish wants to stack off, he'll probably stack off later anyway. By raising the flop we're making it more expensive to draw out on us, but if he's behind he doesn't have much to draw to in most cases anyway. So I like the flop call.

If BB decides to call then he probably either has TP or a set so I think we make a value bet (assuming fish doesn't bet the turn) and fold if BB raises. If BB folds and we go HU to turn I'd prob shove if fish bets or value bet if he checks and plan on getting all the money in before the hand is over.

What was your plan and what do you think looking at it now?

[Donachello]

^ I agree with most of this except I think that we can count on BB to check almost 100% of the time because daven will be betting a large % hoping to extract from the fish. True if BB raises we have to fold since he has no draws in his range so I agree with flop call.

HU to the turn vs the fish I think the hand basically plays itself. With both players I think you have to take a pretty passive line.

[Razvan729]

a reraise on flop to 5 $ to check the BB on what he holds? a reraised flop he would call (dave said he is traight forward) with TPTK or a set... if he calls we have more info about his hand, about the fish, we also cancel odds to a flush.

just an opinion,but i woud play like this, dont know if its wrong or right.

[Openside]

a reraise on flop to 5 $ to check the BB on what he holds? a reraised flop he would call (dave said he is traight forward) with TPTK or a set... if he calls we have more info about his hand, about the fish, we also cancel odds to a flush.

just an opinion,but i woud play like this, dont know if its wrong or right.

I like the call also. With 25% (5/19.9) equity required to call the re-raise we aren't folding any of his range that calls the original bet imo, so we don't learn anything and commit ourselves further should he shove over the top.

[couriermike]

Flatting a 3-bet oop is so bizarre esp for a tight multi-tabling reg. Possibly a misclick. Normally it'd be good to raise the drawy flop but BB kinda ruins the party. Not sure I like putting him on just JJ or QQ tho if he shows any interest. His play already doesn't make sense. I like raising to a normal c-bet amount and seeing what everybody does. Chances are very good you still have the best hand.

If BB cold 3-bets, you can dump it. If BB calls, you can pot control it on a bad turn or just go with it on a safe turn. But with a psb left behind on a safe turn and BB still hadn't bet or raised, I'd just go with it.

[Openside]

Flatting a 3-bet oop is so bizarre esp for a tight multi-tabling reg. Possibly a misclick.

If we were villain in BB with JJ-KK how would we have played this? By 4betting we are folding everything we beat and allowing AA to shove over the top? Do we accept we are prob behind, flat and turn our hand into a set farm?

[couriermike]

Yeah, since he's 17/10 with 1.4% 3-bet, you have to assume he has QQ and JJ here alot. What a wanker. I guess then call the flop, try to keep it small, and bail when BB bets big or raises.

[daviddem]

calling:
- you give a free card to MP's draws, and it's maybe what he wants if his $2 bet is a blocking bet. Whatever the bet means, for sure it doesn't mean "I want to fold".
- you price in BB to call with a lot of his hands (AK and maybe AQ if he doesn't raise it), so you can often say bye bye to your chance of getting HU vs MP on the turn. And the turn is probably going to be hard to play.
- your opp's hands will improve on the turn more often than yours and when they improve you're crushed.
- if BB decides to raise with his TPTK you have to fold the best hand
- if BB raises small (like $5-6), MP calls... can you ever fold that?

raising (to $5):
- the raise is for value vs MP's range. He almost never has more than 5 outs, so the raise is enough to prevent him to draw profitably.
- BB folds AK, 88, 99 and if he is smart and realizes that you beat TPTK when you raise in this spot he also folds AQ (not for sure if he already knows that you are fos). That's 20 to 26 combos out of his 32 combos range. So at least 62% of the time and up to 80% of the time you eliminate BB from the equation. It's true that you only fold worse hands, and unlikely any worse hand continues. But the +EV thing here is that you are now HU vs MP.
- if BB 3b it's an easy fold
- if BB folds, MP who was willing to pay $2 when the pot was $8 should be happy to pay $3 extra now that the pot is $15. And if he shoves over, you said you were happy to get it in. If he folds, well so be it, you would probably not have gotten much more out of him any other way.
- this being said there are some nightmare scenarios like BB flats, MP shoves, wtfdoyoudonow?, or if they both call. But then I don't see many hands that BB would flat here.

So against consensus, and at the price of being called a donk who doesn't make sense, I think I prefer to raise. That will make the hand much easier to play, and being a 5NL donk, I like simple.

Yaawn feel free to drop by and hammer me. Others feel free to point out why my arguments are flawed (and hammer as well if you like). I am willing to change my mind and repent if you demonstrate that I am a complete idiot.

[daviddem]

Yeah, since he's 17/10 with 1.4% 3-bet, you have to assume he has QQ and JJ here alot. What a wanker. I guess then call the flop, try to keep it small, and bail when BB bets big or raises.

I'd say with 17/10 stats he probably set mines wider than that.

[Icanhastreebet]

raise...fold is bb shoves, get it in v MP...Iunno why people would want to flat here???

[daven]

raise...fold is bb shoves, get it in v MP...Iunno why people would want to flat here???

reasoning for raising vs calling?

[daven]

i tried to identify reasons to both flat and raise, but realised i'm still hugely biased in favour of flatting. I'll look more closely at raising in a bit, but for now:

reasons to flat:
1 - BB has to turn his hand face-up, he isn't letting me draw to the turn for free when the nut flush draw is totally in my range and obviously not in his (cos i block). He isn't squeezing flop as bluff either cos I can easily have JJ/QQ, MP also has these some.
2 - MP doesn't have many outs against me, so i'm happy to see more streets and his stack size means that i don't have to raise here to get it in by the river
3 - BB raises and i have to fold (consensus), i get away cheaper
4 - BB folds, i still get it in vs MP2
5 - BB calls, he suddenly has AQ/KK only and that's fine

reasons to raise
1 - just get the money in until i have good reason to believe i'm behind. AA in a 3b pot and i'm good a lot
2 - BB goes even more faceup
3 - get the money in vs MP more easily
4 - any wtf unlikely draws are going to continue regardless -> money in good
5 - club turns may kill my action if i merely call

Chances are very good you still have the best hand..

this is true, but this doesn't help me decide whether raising or calling is better given spr etc.

I am willing to change my mind and repent if you demonstrate that I am a complete idiot.

I see solid argument backed with reasoning, doesn't sound like complete idiot to me. Note that icanhaz4betbluffshoveoverafishcalledyaawn agrees with you and he doesn't suck

calling:
- you give a free card to MP's draws, and it's maybe what he wants if his $2 bet is a blocking bet. Whatever the bet means, for sure it doesn't mean "I want to fold".

yep, but note that he's drawing to very few outs here, or dead. Also, if he thinks i'm drawing then he's going to want to put in more money with his weak made sub-range

calling - you price in BB to call with a lot of his hands (AK and maybe AQ if he doesn't raise it), so you can often say bye bye to your chance of getting HU vs MP on the turn.

i don't mind BB calling with dominated hands

calling - And the turn is probably going to be hard to play.
- your opp's hands will improve on the turn more often than yours and when they improve you're crushed. not so much
- if BB decides to raise with his TPTK you have to fold the best hand he doesn't have the balls. He knows that both MP and I can hold the nuts
- if BB raises small (like $5-6), MP calls... can you ever fold that? yep, i'm that good at folding sometimes

raising (to $5):
- the raise is for value vs MP's range. He almost never has more than 5 outs, so the raise is enough to prevent him to draw profitably. absolutely, but bb and i can get it in vs mp without raising
- BB folds AK, 88, 99 and if he is smart and realizes that you beat TPTK when you raise in this spot he also folds AQ (not for sure if he already knows that you are fos). That's 20 to 26 combos out of his 32 combos range. So at least 62% of the time and up to 80% of the time you eliminate BB from the equation. It's true that you only fold worse hands, and unlikely any worse hand continues. But the +EV thing here is that you are now HU vs MP. I'm greedy and want value from everyone
- if BB 3b it's an easy fold yep, same if i call and he squeezes right?

[oskar]

raise...fold is bb shoves, get it in v MP...Iunno why people would want to flat here???

flat, idk why people want to raise here.

BB will play face up anyway and we're up against Qx most of the time. He'll fold a shitton to a raise or call and c/f the turn... if he doesn't our one pair looks pretty screwed.

[couriermike]

I like raising again now. You're 3-way with AA on a very drawy board. You can't give a free card. Plus raising the gay bet will force BB to play even more face up. Of course fold if BB comes over the top. But if he just calls, well there are as many AQ's as QQ's and JJ's.

[bikes]

wp'ed

i'd mebbe raise if we did not have the Ac