calling:
- you give a free card to MP's draws, and it's maybe what he wants if his $2 bet is a blocking bet. Whatever the bet means, for sure it doesn't mean "I want to fold".
- you price in BB to call with a lot of his hands (AK and maybe AQ if he doesn't raise it), so you can often say bye bye to your chance of getting HU vs MP on the turn. And the turn is probably going to be hard to play.
- your opp's hands will improve on the turn more often than yours and when they improve you're crushed.
- if BB decides to raise with his TPTK you have to fold the best hand
- if BB raises small (like $5-6), MP calls... can you ever fold that?
raising (to $5):
- the raise is for value vs MP's range. He almost never has more than 5 outs, so the raise is enough to prevent him to draw profitably.
- BB folds AK, 88, 99 and if he is smart and realizes that you beat TPTK when you raise in this spot he also folds AQ (not for sure if he already knows that you are fos). That's 20 to 26 combos out of his 32 combos range. So at least 62% of the time and up to 80% of the time you eliminate BB from the equation. It's true that you only fold worse hands, and unlikely any worse hand continues. But the +EV thing here is that you are now HU vs MP.
- if BB 3b it's an easy fold
- if BB folds, MP who was willing to pay $2 when the pot was $8 should be happy to pay $3 extra now that the pot is $15. And if he shoves over, you said you were happy to get it in. If he folds, well so be it, you would probably not have gotten much more out of him any other way.
- this being said there are some nightmare scenarios like BB flats, MP shoves, wtfdoyoudonow?, or if they both call. But then I don't see many hands that BB would flat here.
So against consensus, and at the price of being called a donk who doesn't make sense, I think I prefer to raise. That will make the hand much easier to play, and being a 5NL donk, I like simple.
Yaawn feel free to drop by and hammer me. Others feel free to point out why my arguments are flawed (and hammer as well if you like). I am willing to change my mind and repent if you demonstrate that I am a complete idiot.
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