Select Page
Poker Forum
Over 1,292,000 Posts!
Poker ForumBeginners Circle

9Ts calling IP with equity?

Results 1 to 5 of 5
  1. #1

    Default 9Ts calling IP with equity?

    Hows my line? Villain is 15/8. I put villain on AQ+, 77+, KQs+. SB is 16/9. I didn't expect SB to come along, especially without attempting to squeeze, so i put him down as set farming seeing as he was getting value for his money with two others in the pot.
    Villain Cbets with most of his range i think AQ+, 77+, KQs+.
    At this point, i have a blocker to him holding TT but if i include TT in his range can i still count the four Ts as outs or just two?
    My logic was i have 10(spades) + 2(9) + 4(T) + 4(8) = 20/47 to improve my equity on the turn.
    Hows my logic? How do we properly factor in outs on the next street that improve our equity but don't give us the best hand on that street.
    My thoughts are we calculate the outs that improve our equity on the turn and then multiply that by the outs on the river that give us the best hand to calculate our equity.

    Bingo, i hit an out on the turn that improves my equity but i still think im behind. I figure i have 10(spades) + 2(9) + 4(T) = 16/46 outs on the river. Its checked around to me and I turn it into a bluff. Not sure i should have done this.

    Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    MP2 ($5.10)
    CO ($7.17)
    Hero (Button) ($5.96)
    SB ($5.85)
    BB ($3.55)
    UTG ($3.81)
    UTG+1 ($4.10)
    MP1 ($4.39)

    Preflop: Hero is Button with 9, 10
    UTG calls $0.05, 2 folds, MP2 bets $0.25, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.25, SB calls $0.23, 2 folds

    Flop: ($0.85) 9, 2, 7 (3 players)
    SB checks, MP2 bets $0.60, Hero calls $0.60, SB calls $0.60

    Turn: ($2.65) K (3 players)
    SB checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets $1.50, 1 fold, MP2 calls $1.50

    River: ($5.65) 3 (2 players)
    MP2 checks, Hero checks

    Total pot: $5.65 | Rake: $0.37
  2. #2
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Posts
    8,697
    Location
    soaking up ethanol, moving on up
    i think your range for villain utg is about right. You can fold pre, calling is less profitable than you think and possibly even a losing spot. Calling ip isn't terrible - but note that you have positional advantage only.

    Flop is a call or a raise as played, and calling is fine unless you're trying to turn your weak made hand into an early street bluff - m2m may have something to say about that.

    Turn is a very interesting street. The king is a huge scare card for villain (overcard to his pairs) but also hits his range pretty hard (AK/KQ). On the turn K you are ahead reasonably often, and you have a bunch of outs vs the small subset of his range that you are behind of. Note that Ks blocks his flush draws except for one combo = AsQs.
    so, counting outs.
    any 9 improves your hand, this gives you 2 outs
    any T improves your hand, this gives you 3 outs (i wouldn't bother worrying about the rare TT in his range, it's 3 combos out of many)
    any space improves your range, this gives you 9 outs.

    14 outs, approximately 30%. This spot is fine to either semi-bluff or to take your free card. If it was heads up it is an ok spot to bet as your fold equity + outs mean it's gonna be fine. With the sb still in the pot i think it is a clear check back. This is because sb always beats 9T in this spot and bluffing vs a player who has heaps of sets in his range isn't ideal cos you don't like being check-raised, especially as the sets in sb's range are stacking off on spade rivers regardless of whether you check or bet this turn.

    river is interesting. Multi-street bluffs vs strong ranges aren't really where you make most of your money at 5nl. And you have showdown value.
    Last edited by daven; 11-16-2010 at 12:46 PM.
  3. #3
    I'd check the turn, you just don't fold out many better hands without firing 2 here and that's usually a bad idea when people can't fold like TT etc, he probably c/cs KQ etc some % of the time and like Daven says SB has a fairly strong range and all set combos.

    Pre looks fine. If MP has a low c bet stat or youve seen him give up multiwayhere before flop is likely a fold. If not then calling will be alright.
  4. #4
    daviddem's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Posts
    1,505
    Location
    Philippines/Saudi Arabia
    Personally so far I fold my SC's pre vs a raise. I only play this hand on a steal, possibly vs one limper. That is because 1) I am not good enough postflop to play my SC's profitably against a PF raiser 2) I think people don't fold enough at these stakes to make SC's easily profitable. I think it is commonly agreed that SC's are generally profitable only if you (successfully) bluff with them a fair bit.

    As played, I agree with checking the turn against two opps.
    Virginity is like a bubble: one prick and it's all gone
    Ignoranus (n): A person who is stupid AND an assh*le
  5. #5
    !Luck's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
    Posts
    1,876
    Location
    Under a bridge
    Turn is not scare card cause in theory it hits your opponents range and it isn't beyond reason that they would check the king. Plus being 3 way your fold equity is low. So just check it back.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •