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9Ts calling IP with equity?

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  1. #2
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
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    soaking up ethanol, moving on up
    i think your range for villain utg is about right. You can fold pre, calling is less profitable than you think and possibly even a losing spot. Calling ip isn't terrible - but note that you have positional advantage only.

    Flop is a call or a raise as played, and calling is fine unless you're trying to turn your weak made hand into an early street bluff - m2m may have something to say about that.

    Turn is a very interesting street. The king is a huge scare card for villain (overcard to his pairs) but also hits his range pretty hard (AK/KQ). On the turn K you are ahead reasonably often, and you have a bunch of outs vs the small subset of his range that you are behind of. Note that Ks blocks his flush draws except for one combo = AsQs.
    so, counting outs.
    any 9 improves your hand, this gives you 2 outs
    any T improves your hand, this gives you 3 outs (i wouldn't bother worrying about the rare TT in his range, it's 3 combos out of many)
    any space improves your range, this gives you 9 outs.

    14 outs, approximately 30%. This spot is fine to either semi-bluff or to take your free card. If it was heads up it is an ok spot to bet as your fold equity + outs mean it's gonna be fine. With the sb still in the pot i think it is a clear check back. This is because sb always beats 9T in this spot and bluffing vs a player who has heaps of sets in his range isn't ideal cos you don't like being check-raised, especially as the sets in sb's range are stacking off on spade rivers regardless of whether you check or bet this turn.

    river is interesting. Multi-street bluffs vs strong ranges aren't really where you make most of your money at 5nl. And you have showdown value.
    Last edited by daven; 11-16-2010 at 12:46 PM.

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