KK 3b pot faving river shove 25NL FR

[Sup3rM4N]

Villain is 14/11/3.9 after 1.1k hands...folds to 3bs 69%
Only thing im beat are overpairs on flops that turned into bluffs
comments on flop and turn bet sizing?


PokerStars Pot-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP1 ($26.53)
MP2 ($29.63)
MP3 ($3.26)
CO ($25)
Button ($49.72)
Hero (SB) ($29.18)
BB ($24.09)
UTG ($29.60)
UTG+1 ($16.17)

Preflop: Hero is SB with ,
UTG calls $0.25, 2 folds, MP2 bets $0.75, 3 folds, Hero raises to $2.75, 2 folds, MP2 calls $2

Flop: ($6) , , (2 players)
Hero bets $4.75, MP2 calls $4.75

Turn: ($15.50) (2 players)
Hero bets $6.50, MP2 calls $6.50

River: ($28.50) (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $15.63 (All-In)

[!Luck]

C/f turn if he checks turn then c/c river based on sizing

[thelorax]

Do you have any reads on how he plays draws? .I'm having a hard time putting him on a 3b flatting range that c/c two streets and value shoves this riv besides like AQs

[Tasha]

How about this:
If he had AQc then he had 15 outs after the flop, giving him a 46% chance to improve his hand.
His pot odds are 44% so it was worth it to call the flop bet. Then he hit his A and then his flush?

[Openside]

Playing 14/11, raising 3bb from MP2 and calling the 3bet id put him on QQ+, AKo/s, AQs. AA shoves on you preflop the vast majority of the time but we'll still leave it in there. He isn't calling your 3bet with lower pairs, there just isnt EV to set farm you. I like your flop bet sizing. He is only calling your flop bet with QQ+, AKc, AQc imo. I hate your turn bet sizing, it screams "i dont have the A!", which is why he fires the bluff on the river. I would have bet 10 min. If he has AAA or the flush he is value betting you on the river not shoving imo.

Calling the shove you need 26% Equity (15.18/58.86).

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.172% 51.72% 03.45% 45 3.00 { QQ+, AQs+ }
Hand 1: 44.828% 41.38% 03.45% 36 3.00 { KK }

its a call imo.

Edit: I am assuming your table image is TAGG

[tyrn]

How about this:
If he had AQc then he had 15 outs after the flop, giving him a 46% chance to improve his hand.
His pot odds are 44% so it was worth it to call the flop bet. Then he hit his A and then his flush?

okay thats one possible hand on the flop. There's still like 20+ other hands in his range, don't base decisions on 5% of his range.

Playing 14/11, raising 3bb from MP2 and calling the 3bet id put him on QQ+, AKo/s, AQs. AA shoves on you preflop the vast majority of the time but we'll still leave it in there. He isn't calling your 3bet with lower pairs, there just isnt EV to set farm you. I like your flop bet sizing. He is only calling your flop bet with QQ+, AKc, AQc imo. I hate your turn bet sizing, it screams "i dont have the A!", which is why he fires the bluff on the river. I would have bet 10 min. If he has AAA or the flush he is value betting you on the river not shoving imo.

Calling the shove you need 26% Equity (15.18/58.86).

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.172% 51.72% 03.45% 45 3.00 { QQ+, AQs+ }
Hand 1: 44.828% 41.38% 03.45% 36 3.00 { KK }

its a call imo.

Edit: I am assuming your table image is TAGG

QQ checks behind here IMO. So does KK.

[Johnny Cashout]

too weak of a turn bet imo. opened opportunity for river bluff.

[kmind]

too weak of a turn bet imo. opened opportunity for river bluff.

This brings up a good point I want to talk about with this hand.

Now, first of all, I don't think if he calls this turn he'll bluff river. But, can he bluff the turn if we check? If so, at what % do we think? He'd have to be bluffing with showdownable hands.

If he can bluff a decent % of the time and we always (or almost always) end up folding(?), then I think I like OP's line and c/f river. I've found that we can bet pretty smallish without getting bluffed, so I think when we bet small like he did villain will sometimes call with worse, sometimes call with better, and sometimes just fold. In this scenario, betting small on the turn has to be more +EV than checking, right?

Of course there's a whole other conversation if we plan on c/c the turn.

Maybe a dumb post but I'm interesting to hear some thoughts.

[kmind]

Also - I really don't think he calls that turn without TP+ here. I still think our line seems strong.

[caddie444]

make it $3 pre, then bet pot on flop to set up a turn shovel.

[Micro2Macro]

turn sizing is fine as played up to this point i'd probably bet slightly smaller with my entire range.

an alternate line would be to pot flop shove turn.

[ManicLombax]

caddie/micro: you all are shoving the turn regardless of the A that appears or do you slow down?

[Micro2Macro]

caddie/micro: you all are shoving the turn regardless of the A that appears or do you slow down?

why would you want to slow down on this card

[ManicLombax]

why would you want to slow down on this card

I'd slow down because he has a lot of aces in his pf range, and he could be picking up your supposed c-bet on the flop. You thinking he always has a pocket pair here?

[Micro2Macro]

if we pot the flop list the Ax hands he has when he calls and we see a turn

[ManicLombax]

Well I don't play 25nl so you all know better than I do.

I'm thinking AK or even AQ might pick up your supposed c-bet and stick around for one street thinking you may have missed the flop also.

[TheLongGrind]

seems like a float by villain, don't mind the turnbet because you are narrowing down his range and might still get value from hands like JJ , QQ. he might have AQs , if he does i'm a little surprised that he didn't 3 bet flop to build the pot, but maybe he is just passive. river is an obvious fold to me. i prefer a bet /fold line on turn. don't see how this would ever be a bluff with his stats, think he seldomly bluffs river since u did fire turn on a scarecard.