10nl AK on BU

[rpm]

UTG is 24/12 over 750ish. he likes to limp suited aces in EP and small pairs. he may limp way more than this, but that's just what i've seen him show down, and thus what i've notes on. he only plays the deep tables and buys in deep, so his higher vpip isnt as bad as it would be at 100bb max, but he limps too much nonetheless. i definitely expect him to open JJ and AA UTG, and i'm pretty sure he check/raises 66 a lot on this particular flop. especially 3way.

main villain is 10/7 rock over 204. i have no notes on him but when played i remembered him winning a few decent pots at showdown with solid hands and standard TAGgish lines. i checked the db afterwards and he had KK 4 times over the 100ish hands i played with him this session (ie he had likely been running pretty hot, but is a nit all the same). however there was one hand vs a tard where he check/called smallish bets on flop and turn OOP with KK on ATQ2 and then decided to lead 1/3 pot and call a minraise on the river unimproved. i don't know what to make of this but i didn't have this in my memory at the time of this hand so whatever.

i guess in regards to the play of the hand, i'm asking what percent of the time you guys think he takes this turn line (and sizing) with AQ or AK. these are pretty much the hands which swing my decision between call and fold (i think). i'm assuming he does this with JJ (3 combos), AA (1 combo), and AJ (6 combos) 100% of the time.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP2 ($44.69)
CO ($28.97)
Hero (Button) ($12.52)
SB ($25.06)
BB ($15.76)
UTG ($39.48)
UTG+1 ($15.41)
MP1 ($28.62)
Preflop: Hero is Button with K, A
UTG calls $0.10, 3 folds, CO bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.40
Flop: ($1.81) A, 6, J (3 players)
UTG checks, CO bets $1.20, Hero calls $1.20, UTG calls $1.20
Turn: ($5.41) 2 (3 players)
UTG checks, CO bets $5, Hero?

[rpm]

or if anyone wants to make a case for playing preflop or flop differently. go right ahead. they're both pretty standard for me. especially vs CO's tight range which i want to keep as wide as possible.

[amifat]

I'm trying to get myself involved with more of these threads.

Even though CO is a rock has he been stealing much? Slash maybe you should go through your tracker here and see if hes made this line b4.

Part of me sees CO do this with a lot of AdXd etc type hands, I think he does take this turn sizing with AdTx+, KdQd, 66, JJ, AA, AJo+ pretty sick if he cbet 22 and psbs trn. I doubt he will do it with KK,QQ,TT.

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30,821,472 games 0.044 secs 700,488,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.830% 42.20% 00.63% 13007473 193506.50 { AsKc }
Hand 1: 57.170% 56.54% 00.63% 17426986 193506.50 { AA, JJ, 66, AdTc, AdTh, AdTs }


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So this is where i get stuck and need to read more of spoony excersises which I'm going to do in a second.

Whats wrong with 3betting BTN here? If UTG Is bad and is playing the top of his range by limping don't we crush him PF? Even though we are OOP against him, based on him calling here on the flop (Which i assume he does with a lot of draws, weak TPs runner draws etc and at the same time we put it into a more difficult position for CO to do anything?

As played I don't like folding the flp, or turn?

But if we call the turn are we ever going to fold the river?

Edit: Though we where SB when writing about UTG
Edit 2#: screwed up stove here is the range i wanted to post initially

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,364 games 0.001 secs 1,364,000 games/sec

Board: Ah 6d Jd 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.418% 36.07% 09.35% 492 127.50 { AsKc }
Hand 1: 54.582% 45.23% 09.35% 617 127.50 { AA, JJ, 66, AJs+, KdQd, AJo+, AdTc, AdTh, AdTs }


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89,039,808 games 0.102 secs 872,939,294 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.497% 48.94% 09.56% 43576735 8508995.00 { AsKc }
Hand 1: 41.503% 31.95% 09.56% 28445083 8508995.00 { AA, JJ, 66, AJs+, KdQd, AJo+, AdTc, AdTh, AdTs }


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[rpm]

Even though CO is a rock has he been stealing much? Slash maybe you should go through your tracker here and see if hes made this line b4.

Part of me sees CO do this with a lot of AdXd etc type hands, I think he does take this turn sizing with AdTx+, KdQd, 66, JJ, AA, AJo+ pretty sick if he cbet 22 and psbs trn. I doubt he will do it with KK,QQ,TT.

---

30,821,472 games 0.044 secs 700,488,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.830% 42.20% 00.63% 13007473 193506.50 { AsKc }
Hand 1: 57.170% 56.54% 00.63% 17426986 193506.50 { AA, JJ, 66, AdTc, AdTh, AdTs }


---

So this is where i get stuck and need to read more of spoony excersises which I'm going to do in a second.

Whats wrong with 3betting BTN here? If UTG Is bad and is playing the top of his range by limping don't we crush him PF? Even though we are OOP against him, based on him calling here on the flop (Which i assume he does with a lot of draws, weak TPs runner draws etc and at the same time we put it into a more difficult position for CO to do anything?

As played I don't like folding the flp, or turn?

But if we call the turn are we ever going to fold the river?

my impression of him was that he was basically a nit and didnt steal near enough etc etc. because this pot was limped into before he raised, it wouldn't record as an ATS scenario although his iso range is probably similar so i'll report back on that ... Just checked, he has 0% ATS.

my reason for not 3betting pre is because his continuing range is pretty strong. my equity at the moment vs his range is probably (as a guess) like 45%. when i 3bet i think this worsens considerably if he calls. by the way i was on the button this hand so i was in position vs everyone. and no, if i call the turn i am definitely not folding the river. that's a big part of why i found it a tough decision.

fwiw, i think being 3handed, and imbetween the UTG and me, makes the nit's range way stronger when he does this on the turn, especially given his sizing. however i didn't really consider the possibility of AdXd hands during play because i was under the impression he was too tight to even open AT here. but now i think about he most likely would. especially sooted. thanks for the reply. feel free to add anything

[Hoopy]

Any idea how he perceives you?

Giving him a fairly wide range {AA,JJ,66,AJs+,AdTd,KdQd,ATo+} we have 47% equity on the flop, however his range for betting the turn that big seems to me like it wouldn't have that many diamonds in it since he would mind you drawing as much.

So removing all the diamond combos, all ATo and half AQo/AKo leaves us with 15% equity. Adding in all the AK/AQ combos gives us 37%.

Against {AA,JJ,AJs+,AKo+} no diamonds we have 42% - so I think important points are does he have 66 in his range + does he do this with AT? Need to also plan the river as well + include UTG's range.

[Carroters]

Preflop looks fine since AK is probably not doing magnificently vs the nits range when we 3 bet. He may even fold AQ, and 3-betting to get it in really sucks vs this guy.

I'd say he has like [AJ-AK, ATs, KdQd, JJ, AA] here on the turn, I think a player like this is more than happy to limp 66 behind preflop. So against a range like this we have 48% equity which makes this a lol easy call given utg will be coming along with a bunch of worse aces, draws etc giving us better pot odds and rarely having many hands that beat us.

Also I really feel like AA and JJ ar much less in this guys range than the rest is mainly because the board isn't super wet or anything and I'd expect a guy like this to bet less or even check these at some point being retarded and unable to bet for value properly, they may be in his range but I'd weight it more to ATs AJ AQ AK here for sure.

If CO comes out potting this river or whatever we likely have an easy fold as I can't see him doing htis with ATs or AQ very often. I'd expect him to slow down a little with the lesser part of his range on most even blank rivers.

[Belt]

Effective stacks will be ~5.80 by the river and the pot will be 15.40 (if UTG folds) or 20.40 (if UTG calls). I don't think I would be able to fold this if he fires again because I beleive he doesn't expect us to show up with AK since we didn't 3bet pre.

[Stacks]

Preflop, imo, flatting is most definitely best. You have a relatively tight opener, who is probably going to view your 3bets as straight value, and not get it in too worse on average. You have position, and a bad player left to act that is very likely to come along with dominated hands. Flatting not only keeps CO's range wide, but also allows you to play a likely pot IP against a bad player who will make many more errors than CO postflop (most likely).

Flop is once again 100% standard, for pretty much the same reasons as calling preflop is correct.

On the turn, blah. He's almost certainly valuebetting, and his range for doing this is pretty strong as well. His bluffing frequency being that tight is certainly low to begin with, add to that the fact he is against 2 villains, one of which is seemingly bad and likes to call, his bluffing range is going to drop even more. I think hands like KdQd, would probably slow down on the turn, c/calling if he gets the correct odds, since his equity has effectively been cut in half, and his fold equity is relatively low as well.

Not sure if he valuebets AQ that large on the turn, but with fish still in pot, maybe? So his range to me looks like {66/JJ/AA/AJ/AK/AdQd/AdTd}, which we have 22.7% equity against, and a fold seems correct. If you add a few more combos of AQ, our equity increases to where I think it's a call.

Tbh, I really don't know what's correct on the turn. I have a hard time believing that a tight player is going to love having AQ enough here to near pot it in a 3way pot (AdQd excluded). But given UTG is still in the hand, and you are certainly ahead of his range, it seems that there is a fair amount of dead money in the pot I wouldn't mind picking up on. meh, idk, I probably wouldn't fold while in play.

[Carroters]

Effective stacks will be ~5.80 by the river and the pot will be 15.40 (if UTG folds) or 20.40 (if UTG calls). I don't think I would be able to fold this if he fires again because I beleive he doesn't expect us to show up with AK since we didn't 3bet pre.

Ahh my bad I thought hero was deep with CO for some reason.

[rpm]

thanks for the input thus far people.

Not sure if he valuebets AQ that large on the turn, but with fish still in pot, maybe? So his range to me looks like {66/JJ/AA/AJ/AK/AdQd/AdTd}, which we have 22.7% equity against, and a fold seems correct. If you add a few more combos of AQ, our equity increases to where I think it's a call.

i personally doubt he's doing this with AQ, definitely think it needs to be discounted to some degree - perhaps just the AQdd and one or two more combos. the only aces he beats are AT and A9 both of which will probably find a fold facing such heat, and i think he knows this.