QQ facing a bad turn card

[Hoopy]

http://weaktight.com/1889893

Ok preflop is normal - I should likely 3bet to $1.20 since I'll be oop the whole hand and his continuing range will be the same but that's a minor point.

3bet calling range is probably 55-JJ,AT-AQ,KQ, maybe a few other suited broadways - I doubt he ever gets tricky and flats AA/KK here.

Flop is draw heavy; vs his range it's semi wet lots of flush draws and gut shots possible. He probably thinks an over pair like 99 is good here since we have a history. http://weaktight.com/1893561

So I bet for value against his range trying to build a pot and get value from flush draws, smaller over pairs and random straight draws like AJ. My plan if he raises is to jam given history and I believe he may sometimes raise his better draws/overpairs along with sets(if possible?).

Turn is the worst card in the deck apart from the 2c because it completes every draw and makes his over pair hands less likely to pay off. At the time I wasn't sure if turn was a b/f or c/f really like your opinions on this.

I talked to the guys in irc and they said river was a bet/fold as played - c/c probably doesn't achieve that much. Would he ever check back a made straight/flush?

I doubt he thinks about ranges but he may think I'm FOS given the other hand.

Comments appreciated.

[XTR1000]

This is so heavily depending on how he responds to your 3bet and how aggro he is postflop. Id say he has hardly 7x or 2x and we can probably discount a lot of club draws of which the weak ones shall be folding pre and the stronger ones are likely to raise flop.

Given all that Id suppose his range on flop consists mostly of made one pair hands, few draws, very few sets, which makes the turn card a lot less worse than it looks at first glance. B/f turn is probably cool, as played I can go either way c/f or c/c river.

[Hoopy]

Thanks XTR, I've trying to force myself to b/f in spots like this more often since I tend to give opponents too much credit for actually having a strong hand when a scare/draw card comes.

Say if we b/f $2.50 on the turn and get called what's our river plan since the effective stack will be like $6.90 behind with pot ~$10, just get it in vs his 1 pair hands?

[brickmason13]

most players do give our oppenents too much credit Ill bet like hell till river thats where I make my big $ decisions... Also in bigger stakes I play the players style alot more than I play the cards Im getting even more so in straight out cash games...

[surviva316]

i only skimmed the OP 'cause i didn't see where you offered any reads. your history doesn't really give you a dirty image because you weren't aggressive until you had the nuts. it may've made villain a little tilted, but we can't at all be certain that means he's gonna start bluff-catching us with A-high for stacks in a 3b pot.

as for this hand, it's really really hard to comment on ranges in this hand without any history/reads/notes/guesses/comments/soul reads about how villain reacts to 3b's. i wouldn't put many 7's or 2's in his range, though, and in fact would prolly put about as many sets in there as i would straights.

i'm somewhat more inclined to check turn because i feel like he's gonna play his range more straight forward if we do that, and we're unlikely to get 3 streets of value out of 88-TT anyway. so c/c turn, c/f river. if he checks turn back, though, i'm betting the river for sure. meh, i don't know, i'm shooting in the dark here. post reads

[Hoopy]

Ok I'll try to give some reads. On the table I was on there was a fair bit of 3 betting going on but no one had 4 bet as a bluff, the only 3 bet pot I had seen my opponent get into was earlier.

He 3 bet a MP opener with AQ in the SB flop came A45r and checked through, he half potted a blank turn and checked a river 6. So he probably continues to a 3 bet with roughly ATs+, 55+ and may be affected by scare cards.

Other than that the only other observation I can make is that I don't think he would check back a straight on the turn.

[Keith]

heres another hand on him to add to the information how he plays .
$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG DonFarfalla ($9.75)
UTG+1 sonick438 ($10.95)
CO Krampe1986 ($21.25)
BTN Voideltu ($9.30)
SB Hero ($10.05)
BB schotanus ($10.80)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 6 players) Hero is SB
1 fold, sonick438 raises to $0.30, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.25, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.70, 2 players)
Hero bets $0.50, sonick438 raises to $1.80, Hero raises to $3.50, sonick438 goes all-in $10.65, Hero goes all-in $6.25

Turn: ($21.10, 2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($21.10, 2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: $21.10
sonick438 shows a straight, Eight to Queen

Hero shows three of a kind, Tens


sonick438 wins $20.10 (net +$9.15)

Hero lost $10.05

[JKDS]

Hrm, i think the only better hand he could really have here is 77, but his range for the most part looks alot like 77-JJ.

The reason i say that is he seems to play his draws aggressively, and he doesnt really seem to value bet thin. Anything that hits this flop smacks the shit out of it, and I'd expect him to be playing his smacks pretty crazy like by either raising flop or at least betting turn. The only other hands that i think would do this are over pairs, maybe Ahi.

But then as surviva said, we need some 3b history. Given what we have, i think b/fing is ideal since i dont think he'd raise us without a hand that beats us and will be calling with everything thats worse, and i think i like the turn check since he might raise Acx here and we'd have to fold.

As played, call.

this is actually a pretty interesting hand imo, id like to hear more thoughts.

[xX zorrito Xx]

i don't see why we're not betting the turn as well...

check/fold or check/call river would've been the play IMO

[Hoopy]

Hrm, i think the only better hand he could really have here is 77, but his range for the most part looks alot like 77-JJ.

The reason i say that is he seems to play his draws aggressively, and he doesnt really seem to value bet thin. Anything that hits this flop smacks the shit out of it, and I'd expect him to be playing his smacks pretty crazy like by either raising flop or at least betting turn. The only other hands that i think would do this are over pairs, maybe Ahi.

But then as surviva said, we need some 3b history. Given what we have, i think b/fing is ideal since i dont think he'd raise us without a hand that beats us and will be calling with everything thats worse, and i think i like the turn check since he might raise Acx here and we'd have to fold.

As played, call.

this is actually a pretty interesting hand imo, id like to hear more thoughts.

Hmm that's an useful HH that keith posted, I didn't know he would play an OESD that aggro on the flop.

As played if I b/f the river instead of checking I get value from 88-JJ and maybe A hi if he hero calls. Seeing as how he doesn't mind stacking off as a semi bluff with nut draws I think we can exclude something like the A hi flush draw since he just calls on the flop.

33/44/55 can also be discounted - he plays aggressively when he thinks his hand is good so why would he not raise on this flop?

So the possible lines are:
c/c , c/f - if he bets turn
c/c , b/f - if he checks back
b/f , c/c
b/f , c/f
c/f , c/c
c/f , c/f

This may be a little over the top but overall I'm leaning towards b/f , c/f.