River decision vs fish (kinda long)

[kfaess]

40/0/1.0 over about 40 hands. No reads other than stats. Comments on any streets welcome (how's the sizing?). Analysis to follow hand

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed)

MP ($19)
Hero (Button) ($25.35)
SB ($33.50)
BB ($18.15)
UTG ($27.55)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J, 10
1 fold, MP calls $0.25, Hero bets $1.25, 2 folds, MP calls $1

Flop: ($2.85) 2, 5, J (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $1.75, MP calls $1.75

Turn: ($6.35) 7 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $3.75, MP calls $3.75

River: ($13.85) Q (2 players)
MP bets $6, Hero ???

So I posted a few hands a few days ago and spoon got on my case about putting people on ranges. Here's an attempt at that, so I better get a reply from him at least In this hand the fish limp calls PF but this doesn't give us any way to narrow his range since he plays his entire range like this lol. I won't even try to make a PF hand range for him since its so wide.

Flop is pretty effin great for our hand when heads up vs a fish. I bet out for value because I expect him to peel with tons of garbage at this point. I estimate his range for continuing is:

Flop continuing range
PP's: 55+,
Random broadways: ATs+, KTs+, QTs+,
Worse J's: J7s+, J9o+
Gutshots: A5s-A3s, 65s, 54s, 43s,
Better J's: AJo+, KJo+, QJo

He calls the flop and I'm fist pumping pretty hard at this point. Bet the turn again for value because tons of worse hands call. I took out sets and overpairs since I don't think he's going to only c/c again on the turn with those. I also have him only continuing with overcards/gutshots that also picked up a FD.

Turn c/c range:
PP's: TT-88, 66,
Random broadways: AK, AsQs, AsTs, KsTs, QsTs,
Gutshots: As5s, As4s, As3s, 65s, 54s, 43s,
Worse J's: J7s+, J9o+
Better J's: AJs, KJs+,QJs, AJo, KJo, QJo,


On the river the offsuit Q comes and he decides to donk for about half pot. To me this looks like a last ditch attempt to get some value from a made but not extremely strong hand, or a last ditch bluff attempt. Here are some ranges for his river lead:

{AKs, AsQs, AJs, AsTs, As5s, As4s, As3s, KJs+, KsTs, QJs, QsTs, AKo, AJo, KJo, QJo}
This range assumes he bluffs all his AK hands (maybe because he's mad it they didn't get there) and he bluffs all his draws (gutshots and FD's) that missed. This probably isn't accurate but its useful because it's pretty much the best case scenario (since it includes his widest possible bluffing range) and it gives us the bottom line amount of equity we need. If we don't have the right odds for even this call then continuing to think about the hand is useless. 46% equity, which is more than enough.

{AsKs, AQs-AJs, As5s, As4s, As3s, KJs+, QJs, AJo, KJo, QJo}
This is a worst case scenario where he's only bluffing the 4 bold hands and the rest he's betting for value. we still have about 36% equity and we only need about 23% equity.

So final conclusion is that this looks like a clear call on the river assuming the analysis above is correct (and that's a big assumption).

Any feedback is great, but I'm specifically looking for what people think about the ranges I created and whether or not they are accurate.

[clvacva]

It's fine U just ran into the value range not the bluffs.

BTW 40 hands with villain is enough to have an idea what his limp calling range is pre or what villain gets to showdown with or if he even bluffs.
Calling in this spot is player dependent
Should have looked at those hand histories while you were tanking.

[Hoopy]

Good job at analysing the hand.

His stats are only over 40 hands so though he's passive preflop I think it's a fair assumption he would raise AK and AQ, so they can be discounted from later ranges.

On the flop I'd weight his range more towards gutshots and weak Ax hands that have paired. Less so missed broadways. Worse Jacks as well, maybe not AJ unless he's v passive postflop.

Turn range, only thing he he might have picked up a fd with is KsQs A5s or A3s, not very likely really.

River range for donking = {KsQs,QJo,A3o,A4o,4s3s,TT}
Sure that range could have more air in it, but even with the above I think a river call is fine.

[spoonitnow]

Just because he hasn't raised over some small sample doesn't mean he's never going to raise preflop, so the preflop the action does narrow his range a bit. From the "bottom" side of the range it's difficult to put boundaries, but from the "top" side of the range he probably raises his biggest pairs and biggest broadways preflop, so we can heavily discount those. To give you an idea of what I mean, if we take {22+, any broadway, any Ace, any two suited} and remove {JJ+, AQ+} we have about 42% of hands, though obviously he could be playing some other ~40%.

His flop check doesn't change much, but his flop call does. While he won't do it 100% of the time, he will be more likely to check/raise here with hands that beat you, so we can begin to discount sets a bit. In general his range is still fairly wide since he could be peeling with some various Ax gutshots and PPs and middle pairs and so on.

However, to say that something like QT is in his range is a bit of a stretch. If you had something like AT here and you bet, I doubt you would consider that to be something he's calling with. Basically, you have no reason to think he's going to make such call.

The turn sort of does the same thing to his range that the flop did really. The chance that he has a strong hand is further reduced because he hasn't taken an aggressive action. Additionally, the chance that he has 66 or 5x is somewhat reduced since people often shit their pants when a second card comes higher than their pair and you show strength. But still, a lot of the Ax gutshots and 5x stays in, especially 5x with two spades.

The river is a scare card... but not really. He leads, which will often be because he has some random crap hand like a low pair or a missed straight draw + overcard and thinks something along the lines of "oh shit, that's a scare card, I better bet it since he'll be scared!" We've already established that many of the hands that beat you are not likely to be in his range because of how he played preflop+flop+turn, and combined with the amount of hands that you clearly beat with this action so far, he's bluffing a lot here. Small value range + large bluffing range = we're at least calling.

Sometimes he's going to show up with say AJ, but it's not going to be often. Hell, sometimes he'll even show up with JJ, but like we've seen, it's not going to be very often.

So this is at least a call. I think a useful exercise would be deciding what the worst hand you would raise with is.

[Hoopy]

Good idea Spoon, I'll let the OP have a crack at it first.

Meanwhile trying to refine his range a little.

Value Range = {AJo,JJ,KsQs,QJo}

Bluffing range = {A3o,A4o,43o,Ks5s,6s5s,5s4s,5s3s,65o,54o,88}

Thoughts on those ranges?

[spoonitnow]

Good idea Spoon, I'll let the OP have a crack at it first.

Meanwhile trying to refine his range a little.

Value Range = {AJo,JJ,KsQs,QJo}

Bluffing range = {A3o,A4o,43o,Ks5s,6s5s,5s4s,5s3s,65o,54o,88}

Thoughts on those ranges?

There's no real way to tell tbh. Anything close is going to be as good as anything else that's close. There is probably more to learn by figuring out the worst hand we'd raise and the best hand we'd fold here than to try to get more precise with a range that we have no business getting more precise with.

[kfaess]

Just because he hasn't raised over some small sample doesn't mean he's never going to raise preflop, so the preflop the action does narrow his range a bit. From the "bottom" side of the range it's difficult to put boundaries, but from the "top" side of the range he probably raises his biggest pairs and biggest broadways preflop, so we can heavily discount those. To give you an idea of what I mean, if we take {22+, any broadway, any Ace, any two suited} and remove {JJ+, AQ+} we have about 42% of hands, though obviously he could be playing some other ~40%.

His flop check doesn't change much, but his flop call does. While he won't do it 100% of the time, he will be more likely to check/raise here with hands that beat you, so we can begin to discount sets a bit. In general his range is still fairly wide since he could be peeling with some various Ax gutshots and PPs and middle pairs and so on.

However, to say that something like QT is in his range is a bit of a stretch. If you had something like AT here and you bet, I doubt you would consider that to be something he's calling with. Basically, you have no reason to think he's going to make such call.

The turn sort of does the same thing to his range that the flop did really. The chance that he has a strong hand is further reduced because he hasn't taken an aggressive action. Additionally, the chance that he has 66 or 5x is somewhat reduced since people often shit their pants when a second card comes higher than their pair and you show strength. But still, a lot of the Ax gutshots and 5x stays in, especially 5x with two spades.

The river is a scare card... but not really. He leads, which will often be because he has some random crap hand like a low pair or a missed straight draw + overcard and thinks something along the lines of "oh shit, that's a scare card, I better bet it since he'll be scared!" We've already established that many of the hands that beat you are not likely to be in his range because of how he played preflop+flop+turn, and combined with the amount of hands that you clearly beat with this action so far, he's bluffing a lot here. Small value range + large bluffing range = we're at least calling.

Sometimes he's going to show up with say AJ, but it's not going to be often. Hell, sometimes he'll even show up with JJ, but like we've seen, it's not going to be very often.

So this is at least a call. I think a useful exercise would be deciding what the worst hand you would raise with is.

I think PF is debatable. There are three categories that this particular villain could fall under. The guys that never raise PF, guys that raise ~3% PF, Guys that raise ~7% PF. I dunno about everyone else but I do see people who never raise PF so its not out of the question. However, another point which I didn't consider is that of the guys who limp big pairs/premiums PF, half probably limp/reraise rather than limp/call. At this point I think we can discount some big pairs, but not significantly.

Like you said, he will show up with JJ at showdown sometimes and given how passive he has played so far (1.0 AF) I didn't want to discount sets too heavily until he c/c for the second time on the turn since I could see him "trapping" with a strong hand on the flop.

I agree with the comment about QT and AT. Basically, I meant to put in his flop continuing range and two broadways higher than the board (A, K, Q's) but when I actually did the pokerstove I forgot and got a little sloppy. Its pretty hard for him to call when he only has one overcard to the board and no draw.


Deciding the worst hand to raise with:
I think in deciding what the worst hand we would raise with, we should first determine his range for calling a raise. Then we can determine what hands have the right odds against that range and determine the weakest possible hand that still makes raising a correct play.

Let's assume that you guys are correct and he would raise AA, KK, QQ, AK, AQ PF.

He's already put in 6.75+6=12.75. This leaves him with 19-12.75=6.25. So assuming we shove, he'll be getting slightly less than 4.2 to 1 on his call. These are pretty good odds and this guy clearly does not like to fold, so I'm going to assume he would call an all in reraise with KJ, KQ, and anything better. This is pretty much the bottom of his value leading range, so I think he'll prob call with his entire value range (KJ is prob debatable). The entire range looks like this:

{AJ, KJ, QJ, KsQs, JJ (discounted to 1 combo)}

For our bluff, we're putting in 12.25 to win 13.85, so the bluff would have to work ~47% of the time assuming we have 0 equity against his calling range.

Our hand: JsTs
Calling range:
AJ 8 combos
KJ 8 combos
QJ 6 combos
KsQs 1 combo
JJ 1 combo
total: 24 combos

Bluffing range:
As5s-As3s 3 combos
65s 3 combos
54s 3 combos
43s 4 combos
88 4 combos
66 4 combos
Ks5s 1 combo
total: 19 combos

I think TT, 99, and hands like J9o may just c/c instead of lead river.

19/45= 44%
So even with only JsTs we almost have enough fold equity alone to make shoving break even.

With KdJd we have 12.5% equity against his calling range. So shoving with this hand is still marginal imo. If we have the AdJd then we have 50% equity against his calling range, so this combined with the fact that we have almost enough total equity in just FE make shoving AdJd a +EV play.

Thoughts on this??? I'll let HoopyDude or someone else try and figure out the worse hand we call with.

[bigspenda73]

bluff jam or fold

[kfaess]

bluff jam or fold

huh??

[bigspenda73]

bluff jam or fold

huh??

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmXPeSzlc6A

[kfaess]

bluff jam or fold

huh??

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmXPeSzlc6A

lol alright well can you explain yourself then?

[bigspenda73]

hmmmmmmmm well fold means to muck your hand, as in the price we're getting against his betting range is not sufficient to call

bluff jam means our opponent might be taking this line w/ slightly better made hands and be willing to fold to a river shove

[ljove]

You should look at past hands.
I've played with lot of calling stations who pay you until the river.
But they are beting if they have a hand.
Fold is good here.

[kfaess]

hmmmmmmmm well fold means to muck your hand, as in the price we're getting against his betting range is not sufficient to call

bluff jam means our opponent might be taking this line w/ slightly better made hands and be willing to fold to a river shove

Did you read any of the analysis in this thread? I posted this hand as an exercise in creating hand ranges for opponents. Based on the ranges that were created and critiqued by spoon/hoopydude this is a clear call.

Its pretty obvious what "bluff jam or fold" means and how you must perceive villains range in order for that to be the correct play. I understood that before all the sarcasm... However, when I asked you to explain, I was asking that you explain exactly where the analysis is wrong and how you would change the hand ranges that were posted.

[bigspenda73]

i told you where it was wrong, clearly your analysis of his river betting range must be incorrect

[Hoopy]

Maybe if he never bluffed this river would be a fold, but getting 3-1 seems a fine price against someone whose stats indicate he's not great.

Also if we bluff jam what are we representing?

[jimmysets]

Tbh, at these stakes I believe when a fish is calling you on all streets then firing out on the river he obviously has made a hand. I think a fold is good here.

[bigspenda73]

Maybe if he never bluffed this river would be a fold, but getting 3-1 seems a fine price against someone whose stats indicate he's not great.

Also if we bluff jam what are we representing?

22,55,77,JJ+,QJ perhaps even AQss KQss

how much more are you typically repping w/ river jams

[kfaess]

Results:

cascao607 bets [$6.00 USD]
kfaess calls [$6.00 USD]
cascao607 shows [As, 4s ]
kfaess shows [Js, Ts ]
kfaess wins $24.60 USD from main pot


In order for bluff jamming to be correct but calling to be incorrect, he would have to be leading the river then folding hands that are better than ours. The only hand where I think he has a chance of b/f'ing is KJ, and even then I think he's calling with it some % of the time getting 4 to 1 on a call. I don't think there's any way he folds AJ. Therefore I don't think jamming is correct with JsTs.

Ok, so do we call or fold?
We only need 23% equity to make calling break even (getting 3.3 to 1 on a call). If we assume he has the following range for leading river with this betsize,

AJ 8 combos
KJ 8 combos
QJ 6 combos
KsQs 1 combo
As5s-As3s 3 combos

then we only have 11.5% equity. This assumes he is only leading with As5s-As3s but not with any of his other missed draws/weak hands he knows won't win a showdown (hands like 65s, 88, 43s). In fact, we need to only add 4 more combos to his bluffing range in order to make this a break even call. Why would he bluff As4s but not 65s (<-- 4 combos) or 88 (<-- 6 combos)??

Maybe I'm being too results oriented here since based on the results we know he bluffs at least As4s. Does a guy with these stats typically bluff missed draws? Maybe not. Maybe it was a fold given the 40 hands I had played with him and the stats I had. I think its clear that the more hands we have played with this player the more this becomes a call, since he's willing to make this bet with air (despite what his stats so far suggest).

IMO there is always some % that a person in bluffing in most situations. We don't yet have a read on how often this player will bluff in this spot, but he doesn't have that many hands that beat us and so he doesn't have to be bluffing very often at all to make this a call. Do you really think that stats gathered over 40 hands is enough to infer that he is hardly ever bluffing in this spot?

Thoughts on this spenda?

[bigspenda73]

if you think that's his river betting range then clearly fold>shove(bluff)>call

It's a pretty big stretch to think that he can have A3ss/A4ss/KQss which is why I'd fold the river. You need to put 22/55 in that river betting range. I'd probably swap 22/55 with KJ.

Edit, actually if that's his river betting range (the one you proposed) then it's probably shove(bluff)=fold>call

[grindinginnj]

AQs,KQs,QJ,AJ,KJ, looks like a vb to me getting good odds,make a crying call.. I think i fold,or shove.

[Hoopy]

Maybe if he never bluffed this river would be a fold, but getting 3-1 seems a fine price against someone whose stats indicate he's not great.

Also if we bluff jam what are we representing?

22,55,77,JJ+,QJ perhaps even AQss KQss

how much more are you typically repping w/ river jams

Point taken, I hadn't really considered the range of hands we would play like this, nor the idea a set would play this passively.