Quote Originally Posted by spoonitnow
Just because he hasn't raised over some small sample doesn't mean he's never going to raise preflop, so the preflop the action does narrow his range a bit. From the "bottom" side of the range it's difficult to put boundaries, but from the "top" side of the range he probably raises his biggest pairs and biggest broadways preflop, so we can heavily discount those. To give you an idea of what I mean, if we take {22+, any broadway, any Ace, any two suited} and remove {JJ+, AQ+} we have about 42% of hands, though obviously he could be playing some other ~40%.

His flop check doesn't change much, but his flop call does. While he won't do it 100% of the time, he will be more likely to check/raise here with hands that beat you, so we can begin to discount sets a bit. In general his range is still fairly wide since he could be peeling with some various Ax gutshots and PPs and middle pairs and so on.

However, to say that something like QT is in his range is a bit of a stretch. If you had something like AT here and you bet, I doubt you would consider that to be something he's calling with. Basically, you have no reason to think he's going to make such call.

The turn sort of does the same thing to his range that the flop did really. The chance that he has a strong hand is further reduced because he hasn't taken an aggressive action. Additionally, the chance that he has 66 or 5x is somewhat reduced since people often shit their pants when a second card comes higher than their pair and you show strength. But still, a lot of the Ax gutshots and 5x stays in, especially 5x with two spades.

The river is a scare card... but not really. He leads, which will often be because he has some random crap hand like a low pair or a missed straight draw + overcard and thinks something along the lines of "oh shit, that's a scare card, I better bet it since he'll be scared!" We've already established that many of the hands that beat you are not likely to be in his range because of how he played preflop+flop+turn, and combined with the amount of hands that you clearly beat with this action so far, he's bluffing a lot here. Small value range + large bluffing range = we're at least calling.

Sometimes he's going to show up with say AJ, but it's not going to be often. Hell, sometimes he'll even show up with JJ, but like we've seen, it's not going to be very often.

So this is at least a call. I think a useful exercise would be deciding what the worst hand you would raise with is.
I think PF is debatable. There are three categories that this particular villain could fall under. The guys that never raise PF, guys that raise ~3% PF, Guys that raise ~7% PF. I dunno about everyone else but I do see people who never raise PF so its not out of the question. However, another point which I didn't consider is that of the guys who limp big pairs/premiums PF, half probably limp/reraise rather than limp/call. At this point I think we can discount some big pairs, but not significantly.

Like you said, he will show up with JJ at showdown sometimes and given how passive he has played so far (1.0 AF) I didn't want to discount sets too heavily until he c/c for the second time on the turn since I could see him "trapping" with a strong hand on the flop.

I agree with the comment about QT and AT. Basically, I meant to put in his flop continuing range and two broadways higher than the board (A, K, Q's) but when I actually did the pokerstove I forgot and got a little sloppy. Its pretty hard for him to call when he only has one overcard to the board and no draw.


Deciding the worst hand to raise with:
I think in deciding what the worst hand we would raise with, we should first determine his range for calling a raise. Then we can determine what hands have the right odds against that range and determine the weakest possible hand that still makes raising a correct play.

Let's assume that you guys are correct and he would raise AA, KK, QQ, AK, AQ PF.

He's already put in 6.75+6=12.75. This leaves him with 19-12.75=6.25. So assuming we shove, he'll be getting slightly less than 4.2 to 1 on his call. These are pretty good odds and this guy clearly does not like to fold, so I'm going to assume he would call an all in reraise with KJ, KQ, and anything better. This is pretty much the bottom of his value leading range, so I think he'll prob call with his entire value range (KJ is prob debatable). The entire range looks like this:

{AJ, KJ, QJ, KsQs, JJ (discounted to 1 combo)}

For our bluff, we're putting in 12.25 to win 13.85, so the bluff would have to work ~47% of the time assuming we have 0 equity against his calling range.

Our hand: JsTs
Calling range:
AJ 8 combos
KJ 8 combos
QJ 6 combos
KsQs 1 combo
JJ 1 combo
total: 24 combos

Bluffing range:
As5s-As3s 3 combos
65s 3 combos
54s 3 combos
43s 4 combos
88 4 combos
66 4 combos
Ks5s 1 combo
total: 19 combos

I think TT, 99, and hands like J9o may just c/c instead of lead river.

19/45= 44%
So even with only JsTs we almost have enough fold equity alone to make shoving break even.

With KdJd we have 12.5% equity against his calling range. So shoving with this hand is still marginal imo. If we have the AdJd then we have 50% equity against his calling range, so this combined with the fact that we have almost enough total equity in just FE make shoving AdJd a +EV play.

Thoughts on this??? I'll let HoopyDude or someone else try and figure out the worse hand we call with.