Why do we raise our draws?

[Luco]

I know that you should ‘raise your draws’, but more important than learning rules by rote is knowing the reason why, right? From my understanding, we raise our draws:

- to get a free card on the turn
- because we have some FE when we raise
- to build the pot before the flush card completes and slows the action
- to balance our flop raising range?

If there’s other reasons please post them, thanks.

Now to an example that got me thinking:

iPoker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.20 BB (10 handed) - iPoker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP1 ($37.32)
MP2 ($3.70)
MP3 ($10.24)
CO ($3)
Hero (Button) ($48.69)
SB ($3.80)
BB ($10)
UTG ($17.38)
UTG+1 ($19.60)
UTG+2 ($4.30)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, Q
5 folds, MP3 bets $0.80, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.80, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.90) 6, J, 3 (2 players)
MP3 bets $1.80, Hero?

This is not a c-bet, villain’s c-bet here would have been $1.20 or so from what I’ve seen and my read on this guy is good. He’s very likely charging draws, My range at this point is TJs+ QJo+ JJ+ 66 or 33. TJ to KJ might fold to a raise but nothing else will, so my FE at this point is pretty low. Most of the villain’s range will fire again on the turn whether I raise here or not, or simply shove over my flop raise. I have between 9 and 13 outs here (35 to 47% equity), less if villain has a set, and there’s not much dead money in the pot.

I have low FE and not much chance of a free card, is this enough to make flatting a better option?

[golfguy37]

Yep, all those ones you said are what I was thinking. There is only one other reason (that I can think of) and that is to conceal your hand. But ya, its also for Fold Equity, and giving yourself better odds.

[Stacks]

Not to mention a draw has stable equity against a variable range of hands. Meaning whether he has TP, Overpair, or a set, our equity isn't going to change that much. The only hand we would hate to see if we had a draw would be the same draw, only stronger (higher flush draw).

If you have no fold equity here, as you expect his large cbet to be strickly for value, then a raise here with <50% equity would be incorrect. As we know it's a mistake to build the pot with <50% equity and no fold equity. So yeah, if you really have no fold equity, then a call is going to be correct here.

Like, if he has a range of JJ+, 66, 33, QJ+, then we have 43% equity against his range. We only need 33% equity to make a call BE (1.8/5.5), so a call is certainly +EV. Given a raise has no fold equity, and this is a board we expect to get 3bet shoved on fairly often, as we don't expect him to call and check turn to us often, then a raise is going to be -EV (depending on his actual hand, as you have 51% equity against like JT).

So, if your assumptions are correct, flatting here is fine, and the best/correct play.

However, if you didn't have the read that this is strictly for value, I'd raise here and stack off all day, as long as his opening range isn't really tight. Given 43% equity against his range, and the fact that a fair amount of his hands aren't continuing to a raise (77-TT, AK, AQ, KQ, 44-55, air), we are going to show a profit raising and felting the flop.

[tncatfish43]

raising a draw a lot of times will give you the lead in betting and will get a player to fold or keep them from betting as much on the next street.it can also help to get a read on the strength of their hand

[sarbox68]

However, if you didn't have the read that this is strictly for value, I'd raise here and stack off all day, as long as his opening range isn't really tight. Given 43% equity against his range, and the fact that a fair amount of his hands aren't continuing to a raise (77-TT, AK, AQ, KQ, 44-55, air), we are going to show a profit raising and felting the flop.

Staxx - This is interesting, 'cause I've heard both sides of this in threads here over the past year or so... raising/shoving HU on 100bb deep on the flop w/ NFD+OCs is "all day" and "is spew". I'm obv assuming the difference between the two perspectives is all about making the individual read...

[JKDS]

Like, if he has a range of JJ+, 66, 33, QJ+, then we have 43% equity against his range. We only need 33% equity to make a call BE (1.8/5.5), so a call is certainly +EV. Given a raise has no fold equity, and this is a board we expect to get 3bet shoved on fairly often, as we don't expect him to call and check turn to us often, then a raise is going to be -EV (depending on his actual hand, as you have 51% equity against like JT).

So, if your assumptions are correct, flatting here is fine, and the best/correct play.

shouldnt we be considering the fact that our equity vs his range is accounting for a turn and river card? ie, if we have 43% equity now...a call is fine, but if we miss the turn our equity is roughly cut in half and we will likely be facing another pot sized bet. so if we have to fold missed turns, then shouldnt we be using our equity for hitting the turn as opposed to hitting either the turn or river?

[bikes]

Where is to raise and get it in?

[sarbox68]

Where is to raise and get it in?

Bbickes - This is a little cryptic, so I'm gonna assume it's directed to me...

In the Stacks excerpt I quoted, you got "I'd raise here and stack off all day" and "going to show a profit raising and felting the flop".

Of course your post may not have had a goddamn f-king thing to do with my post... in which case just assume I'm talking to myself.....

[settecba]

Youre right JKDS, I think we should consider the 9-15 outs we have and go with that. Considering 43% equity would be wrong, villain IS gonna bet turn hard if our read is correct. So mainly, I think the right way to approach this spot is thinking about our odds for 1 street, and the implied odds we have. And then reevaluate turn if villains gives us the correct price to draw again(theres a lot of people doing that, firing a 1/2ish or smaller turn bet).

[Stacks]

Yeah.. My bad JKDS. We would need to figure if calling is correct given our 9-15 outs, and our pot/implied odds. This is another reason why raising and getting strong draws in on the flop is usually the correct thing to do. Because even though our equity is stable across changing ranges, our equity is variable across different streets, meaning if we miss on turn our equity is cut in half.

also when we face a king high flush we're super happy

[bjsaust]

I think the key to whether to raise or not is FE combined with hand equity. Talking about a 15 out draw and a 9 out draw as much the same thing is silly. With reads, we almost certainly don't have 15 outs in this hand. His most likely hand is AJ with some chance of QJ. We probably have 12 outs though, as you'd think a set would tease us along a little bit. I could go either way here. I think probably I'd raise and get it in because villain is a half stack and its a somewhat cheap place to balance our range with fairly good equity.

That said, if he had a full stack I'd probably just call. Some people seem to way overestimate the value of getting all in as a dog in spots where its obvious opponent isn't folding.

[Luco]

JDKS is right, we're likely being pushed off at the turn if we flat and don't improve so equity is halved.

I think probably I'd raise and get it in because villain is a half stack and its a somewhat cheap place to balance our range with fairly good equity.

I looked ahead at the hand, saw the turn getting ugly if I missed, then I pretty much word for word thought ^ (mine included the word metagame though) and:

Flop: ($1.90) 6, J, 3 (2 players)
MP3 bets $1.80, Hero raises to $47.89 (All-In), MP3 calls $7.64 (All-In)

Turn: ($20.78) K (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($20.78) 5 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $20.78 | Rake: $1

Results:
Hero mucked A, Q (flush, Ace high).
MP3 had Q, Q (one pair, Queens).
Outcome: Hero won $58.23

But I wondered afterwards about the +ev of this play. Thanks for the responses

[bjsaust]

Just dont overvalue meta-game at your level. I mean, I play on a smaller site and sit at the same tables with a lot of the same people over time. Much more than micro stakes players at stars/FTP will. I make a lot of money from regs putting me on draws when I play like this, so its important to actually sometimes have a draw, even though in reality I almost never do unless I have 12+ outs with effective full stacks. To me, this is kind of like cheating at metagame.

One of my big lessons I learnt the hard way at microstakes is how big of a mistake it is to deliberately stack off as a dog for pretty much any reason.

[sil693]

lolmetagame at 20NL

[Luco]

No fear there bjsaust

I certainly don't overvalue metagame, my plan was to shove my next strong made hand on a two-tone flop but yeah not everyone at the table notices these things. I wouldn't have made this post if I was happy with my thought process.