I think the key to whether to raise or not is FE combined with hand equity. Talking about a 15 out draw and a 9 out draw as much the same thing is silly. With reads, we almost certainly don't have 15 outs in this hand. His most likely hand is AJ with some chance of QJ. We probably have 12 outs though, as you'd think a set would tease us along a little bit. I could go either way here. I think probably I'd raise and get it in because villain is a half stack and its a somewhat cheap place to balance our range with fairly good equity.

That said, if he had a full stack I'd probably just call. Some people seem to way overestimate the value of getting all in as a dog in spots where its obvious opponent isn't folding.