Preflop 3bet bluff gets called but good flop

[AFchung]

Villain is a 15/13 with a 45 att to steal and a 85% fold to 3bet over 2000 hands

What is he calling a 3bet from out of the blinds with? We have a good combo draw but I'm having trouble assigning him to a range. Can we go to the felt with our hand here?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

UTG ($56.35)
UTG+1 ($56.35)
MP1 ($22.50)
MP2 ($52.35)
CO ($61.80)
Button ($49.35)
SB ($32)
Hero (BB) ($59)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q, 7
5 folds, Button bets $1.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $5, Button calls $3.50

Flop: ($10.25) 5, 10, 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $7.50, Button raises to $44.35 (All-In), Hero?

[bigspenda73]

really?

[Micro2Macro]

he has like TT-JJ, maybe QQ?

[bigspenda73]

we have like 43% equity against the most pessmistic range, and that includes him not 4betting AA/KK and calling PF with 55 and 77.

Download pokerstove and save FTR some server space.

[AFchung]

really?

yes. really.



as stated in my original post, i had trouble assigning villain to a range. i'm not sure what villain shows up with if he only continues/4bets with 15% of his hands. i stacked off here but it was based solely off my hand and i just wanted feedback on what villain's range of hands are.

Download pokerstove and save FTR some server space.

sorry

[Ragnar4]

i stacked off here but it was based solely off my hand and i just wanted feedback on what villain's range of hands are.

Every once in a while, situations come up where, no matter what your opponents range happens to be, you still want all the money in the pot. Most often this occurs when you have a "nut hand" but every great once in a while, you have a bajillion outs.

Don't take Spenda personally, monitoring the BC is probably a curse among curses. I don't know why anybody would allow themselves the pain, and shame of being associated with us clowns who have questions like this.

[Robb]

Villain is a 15/13

Very tight.

with a 45 att to steal

Positionally aware.

and a 85% fold to 3bet

Straightforward preflop.

over 2000 hands

TAGG-reg.

So those reads lead to....

What is he calling a 3bet from out of the blinds with?

I'd still like to see BTN steal stat. He's probably stealing here with the top 50% of his hands, but he's too aware of position to fold to 85% of 3bets otb. I'd estimate he flats between 5 - 7% of all combos here (though we'd know more if you gave BTN-specific steal/fold-to-3b stats).

Preflop.Given his nitty trend and ABC preflop style, you'd expect him to 4bet KK+ and flat pp's JJ - 77ish. Players like this will sometimes 4bet QQ and/or AK, but sometimes not, so leave them in the flatting range for a moment. He'll flat with the strongest Aces and suited broadways, including AQ, AJs, KQs for sure, with some "junky" hands like KJs, JTs, 98s or Axs filling out the bottom end of his range. They're all possible, but not extremely likely.

Range: 77 - QQ, AQ, AJs, KQs (~5%) plus discounted amounts of AK, Axs, suited broadways and sc's (~2.5%).

Flop.What hands in that range can shove this flop? Not a lot. Sets scared of the FD. Overpairs scared of everything. Big draws. So TT, 77 (not really expecting 55 here), QQ, JJ, Axss, and 98s.

You can analyze this as much as you want, but whatever range you come up with, spenda's got a point. Snap call.

Final thought: fold preflop. Especially if you have difficulties putting this villain on a 3bet flatting range postflop.

[bigspenda73]

PF is a good 3bet spot from the SB, from the BB I don't mind calling and c/'ring a lot of flops vs. a wide/weak range. 3b is also fine if he truly steals that much but only defends against a 3bet ~1/6 times. Seems like you have a ton of FE PF but he might be the type that folds to a ton of 3bets when OOP but only folds like the bottom 20% of his opening range IP.

Ragnar, I'm not willing to put any effort into posts where people don't show me they deserve it. If someone proves to me they've thought the situation out and are looking for advice on their thinking then I'm more than likely going to give better advice.

Quid Pro Quo, amirite?

[Illfavor]

Preflop I'd put his range as like TT-QQ, AK. There may be lower pps, but that's much less likely. His flop range is 77/TT/maybe and maybe rarely an overpair.

As played, I assume you were wondering if there was some faster way to get your chips in...?

[Ragnar4]

Ragnar, I'm not willing to put any effort into posts where people don't show me they deserve it. If someone proves to me they've thought the situation out and are looking for advice on their thinking then I'm more than likely going to give better advice.

Quid Pro Quo, amirite?

Actually, that sorta makes sense. Certainly makes me go through in my mind all those times I got one liners that seemed kinda meh, to the eye-popping answer you dropped me yesterday. I just figured somedays you took your meds, and liked me, and others you didn't take your meds, and didn't like me.

LOL.

[oskar]

The fold to 3-bet stat is not incredibly interesting.
Fold steal to 3-bet a little more so.
It would be nice to have some history bvbtn with this guy, but without reads and just the stats you posted, I'd 3-bet like a monkey in this spot.
it's prolly still profitable even if you just give up on the flop.

The whole hand is fine as played. I'd make it $5.5 pre, but that's about it.

I dunno where you play and how much 3-betting is going on. His stats seem fairly nitty but could be reasonable against a weaktight field - which doesn't mean he'll necessarily play the same against you.
This is the spot where you should expect his calling and 4-betting range to be the widest.

we have like 43% equity against the most pessmistic range, and that includes him not 4betting AA/KK and calling PF with 55 and 77.

Download pokerstove and save FTR some server space.