+10ptBB/hr on $10 NLHE, but seriously under-rolled.

[Luco]

First off, as this is my first post (other than a brief one in the introduction thread), I'd like to explain my background a little. Thanks for your patience

I played a little bit of 5 card draw when I was younger, and a fair bit of other card games (all for fun). Then about 6 weeks ago someone suggested that I should play poker for money, so I gave it a go. I pretty much destroyed the fun money tables at limit, switched to NL fun money and turned my 2,000 points into 85,000 in about 10 minutes flat. At this point, I realised play money tables are only good for teaching the very basic concepts of poker and put £40 into Titan Poker (about $55 as all their tables are USD). After messing about on NL SnG micros (with a few cashes but no 1sts and ultimately $10 down), I switched to FR $5 NL and got my money back.

I'm currently playing $10 NL with a BR of $66 and according to FTR that means I'm seriously outside my roll, even though I'm >10ptbb/hr (usually $2 to $3 an hour without breaking a sweat). Should I seriously move down? The thing is, in poker terms I'm practically a hobbyist atm, as I'm an accountant by day and a father of 2 in the evenings. I'm lucky if I get 8 hours a week to sit at the virtual felt. So it would take me two months to accumulate a BR to play at a level I'm already owning by FTR standards. If I moved down it would take even longer.

As well as this, I find £10 NL easier than $5 (both .02 and .04 have $5 MBI) as the opposition tends to be a lot easier to range, bluff, and generally stack. But should my measly bankroll alone give me cause to go back to $0.04 or $0.02? I haven't even played 10,000 hands yet as I single table, not ready to multi.

Apologies for the essay
Luco

[sil693]

I haven't even played 10,000 hands

then your sample size is incredibly small, and you can't really make any assumptions as to your "real" winrate.

What you should do depends on what you want to do. If you want to just play as a hobby, and aren't interested in making money / dont have any long term goals then I guess just stay as you are.

If you want this to be something you take seriously then I'd definately suggest moving down to a level you are properly rolled for. BRM exists for a reason. . . .

[Sup3rM4N]

You can be crushing the game but when variance hits, and it will, there is nothing you can do to fight against it besides having a sound BR. If you want to continue playing 10NL, just put more money in your account so you have a big enough roll to take the swings that will inevitably come.

You should look at ptbb/100 hands rather than an hour. That stat is only useful after a large sample. You mentioned you have not even played 10k hands yet. 10k is still a very small sample. I would ignore the ptbb/100 stat for now as it signifies absolutely nothing about your game at this moment.

[oskar]

It doesn't matter at all for how much you're beating it. All it needs is 6 coolers / beats in the wrong direction, and you're broke. That can happen in less than an hour. If you look at the monthly graphs of even the most consistent winners you'll see 6 buy-in+ downswings pretty regularly.

The variance is considerably lower at the micros though... because the opposition is so bad, but I'd still recommend at least 20 BI below 25NL.

Of course it's your business what you do with your money. If you have to experience why BRM is important on your own, then the micros are definitely the place for that.
Either way... you would be making way more money if you just worked an extra hour, so... does it really matter if you're playing 2NL or 10NL?

Having said that I wouldn't put a lot of money against you either... just because if you have half a brain and you get lucky and hit a hot streak then it might as well work out. Just don't move to 25NL before you're properly rolled. The longer you play with less then 20BI the closer you get to certain busto.

[AnTman_69]

I had a -10 buy in downswing last week in the space of 4 sessions, which is About 2k hands for me. Um..yeah. I don't care if u go broke or if u end up creating a big roll, but just know that your essentially gambling atm. It's a big risk to play with only 6 buyins.

[Luco]

...just know that you're essentially gambling atm. It's a big risk to play with only 6 buyins.

That pretty much nails it I think.

I can see how this will pan out already. Carry on at $10NL, make a little for a while, get a couple of (ineveitable) big blows, then move down. I don't think I'd ever play dumb enough to lose the whole roll, and I don't really want to add to it again. I certainly wouldn't multi table until I had a 25+ BI cushion anyway.

Thanks for your input everyone, between the articles here and ToP who knows? Maybe I'll get enough of an edge to keep me afloat, even with my measly 6 BI

[Jason]

Should I seriously move down?

Yes

[loonychune]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($10)
Button ($11.30)
SB ($10)
BB ($9.25)
Hero (UTG) ($10.15)
MP1 ($9.85)
MP2 ($2.65)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7, 7
Hero bets $0.40, 3 folds, Button raises to $1, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.60

Flop: ($2.15) 7, K, 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $1.10, Hero raises to $3, Button calls $1.90

Turn: ($8.15) 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $6.15 (All-In), Button calls $6.15

River: ($20.45) A (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $20.45 | Rake: $1

Results:
Button had A, A (three of a kind, Aces).
Hero had 7, 7 (three of a kind, sevens).
Outcome: Button won $19.45

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

But i'm really bad so maybe you never lose more than 2 BIs to bad luck (which i believe they term variance) :P

EDIT: shit he had the A --- i'm still a big favourite...

[Luco]

Very informative Jason, thanks.

I guess what makes it a hard pill to take is that I'm getting a very consistent 20ptbb/100 on the £10 NL tables on iPoker (I know, sample size, variance, don't have to tell me twice). Ultimately though, I should listen to experience. Therefore, If I lose any more than $2 in any one session I'm back to the bottom. Chances are, it won't take long to happen.

Is anyone else here on the iPoker network?

[Keith]

WTF .....whats the point in even discussing this. You know that you shouldn't be doing this, we 're telling you you shouldn't be doing this , you're talking of being at the bottom if you are down 2$ in a session but thats 1/5th of a buyin. Say you are dealt AA and raise preflop to 4bb and get called. you bet 2/3 pot on the flop roughly another 6bb and called again. 2/3 pot on the turn thats another 14bb.........By now you have put 2$ in the pot at least and you could easily be losing to a set. You have to bet those Aces but variance means that you haven't got the bankroll to stand the times you lose with it.
Either swallow your pride and drop down to 2NL , deposit more so that you have a bankroll to play and learn and lose at 10NL , or just carry on as you are until you redeposit having bust out.

[Luco]

Well said.

End thread.

[Luco]

How am I rolled for SnG's? They start from $0.10 + 0.02 where I'm playing.

And what does WPP mean?

[Jason]

I'm not a SNG expert and opinions may vary, but when I used to play them regularly, one rule of thumb I had was to use the 5% stop loss rule as a guide. You don't want to lose more than 5% of your bankroll in one day, so I calculated the average number of SNG's I wanted to play in one day and arrived at an amount that complemented that. So, for example, if you had a $100 bankroll, the most you could lose in one day is $5, so you could technically play a $5 SNG, but if you lost it, you'd be done playing poker and that's not a good way to build a roll or get experience, so obviously, you'd want to do $1 SNG's or less. As a general rule of thumb, you could say 50 buy-ins for SNG's and 100 buy-ins for MTT's. There are more variables to consider like win-rate, ITM%, ROI, and the like, but I think the main thing is that you give yourself room to play several tournaments per day while not losing more than 5% of your bankroll per day if you brick out in all of them.

WPP = Average Number of Word's per Post

[GatorJH]

Luco, If you are an accountant then I seriously doubt that the money you put into your account can be considered your entire bankroll.

The important concept of bankroll management is to ensure that you can ride out the negative variance that is bound to happen without depleting your entire poker bankroll. I am not sure, but my guess is that if you lost all of your $55 initial deposit today you could just deposit some more tomorrow or next week or next month. You may not want to, but you could.

What you may want to do is come up with a yearly amount that you are willing to risk losing on poker and THAT number becomes your bankroll. If that number is higher that $300 then you are "rolled" to play $10NL (using the 30 buy in rule of thumb).

Sometimes people confuse what money we have in our online poker account and think that is our entire bankroll and that is certainly not the case for everyone.

Personally I currently have less than $800 in my Stars account and am playing $50NL. If I JUST mentioned that I would get railed on that I am playing too high, however what wasn't mentioned is the $850 I have in a checking account plus the $300 plus I keep in cash (you never know when a game might pop up) for poker. Therefore my entire roll is actually closer to $2K, not $800. Well high enough to play $50NL.

Good luck at the tables and welcome to FTR.

[Luco]

With 2 a day being the most likely, that puts me on $1 + 0.20 with a cushion. And $0.20 fee is just wtf.

I played about a few $1+0.20 when I first deposited - ITM (2nd)several times, but no 1sts as I had zero HU experience. 3 of those times I was 70/30% chip leader too. Embarrasing.

I'll start with the $0.10s till I can get confident HU.

Once again, Thanks Jason.

[Luco]

Luco, If you are an accountant then I seriously doubt that the money you put into your account can be considered your entire bankroll.

The important concept of bankroll management is to ensure that you can ride out the negative variance that is bound to happen without depleting your entire poker bankroll. I am not sure, but my guess is that if you lost all of your $55 initial deposit today you could just deposit some more tomorrow or next week or next month. You may not want to, but you could.

That £40 is the most that the wife allowed me to put on with my nuts still intact. She's rather anti-gambling. If I blew it and put more on I'd never hear the end of it.

I bet she wouldn't grumble if I got her new shoes with some winnings down the line though

[CBAT]

To be honest, at the really low stakes, you can get by without a complete role. I deposited $100 and got into $10NL and made it work. A -10 buyin swing is very rare at $10NL and under if you are a solid player. There are just too many fish out there that donate you money.

However a -6buy-in loss is very doable. If you want to set a stop-loss with your $60 roll, I set it at 2 buy-ins. Because you will still be properly rolled for $2NL if you lose 2 buy-ins.

[Taicho]

I know you don't need to hear it again, but downswings happen to everyone. I thought myself excluded because in 7 days I doubled my bankroll from $30 to $60, but for the past 3 days literally every one of my big pocket pairs has either been dominated or cracked by a fish. It's unavoidable and I look forward to the moment it stops

As another incentive to follow good BRM, consider the fact that if by some unfortunate occurrence you do bust, your wife isn't going to be happy about you reloading :P. Best to play it safe and keep your nuts in tact imo.

[speedcake]

why would you advocate playing under rolled? If you are not going practice proper bank roll management at the micros I'd think you'd be less likely to fully understand it if/when you move up.

10NL is way out of his roll, 5NL is way out of is roll, 2NL is just right for his roll.

Why does everyone that comes in here look for some justification for playing under rolled when there is usually a game available that fits their current roll? Is playing for 2 bucks a hand really that painful if you wanna learn?

anyway welcome to the boards :P

[Kijjo]

What Gator posted was key. We're used to thinking no one wants to re-deposit. If you're willing and able to, then by all means continue playing what you were.
If you're doing well at ring, my advice would be to not go play SnGs. As you've noticed, the rake is huge. The reason for playing SnGs is either the preference of tourney style, or lack of success at the rings.

[Luco]

What Gator posted was key. We're used to thinking no one wants to re-deposit. If you're willing and able to, then by all means continue playing what you were.

Well I do have monies that's not in the joint account

Plus, variance at $10NL is way lower than the two $5 levels (.02 and .04). At $10NL, the fish are rangeable, predictable, exploitable. My guess is they have a starting hand chart and have heard of this thing called pot odds, maybe even started reading an article on tight aggressive but stopped after the word tight.

If you're doing well at ring, my advice would be to not go play SnGs. As you've noticed, the rake is huge. The reason for playing SnGs is either the preference of tourney style, or lack of success at the rings.

I played 2 SnG's at the $0.10+.02 level last night - bubbled the first, won the second. I knocked out 6th through 2nd consecutively with a gear change that no-one adjusted to and bagged my first ever SnG win. Happy days.

As for which one I prefer, it's way too early to tell. They're two very different beasts but I like them both.

Thanks for all your comments, sorry if this turned into a bit of a pointless thread. I promise to be more constructive with the next one.

[Nakamura]

Just to add to what Gator said ... keeping more than a couple of buy-ins at a Poker site is just plain dumb. As a poker player you should have enough discipline to take this money and put it into a bank account where it earns interest! Poker sites, like insurance companies, make serious money from pool of money they are free to invest.

[okiman]

Just to add to what Gator said ... keeping more than a couple of buy-ins at a Poker site is just plain dumb. As a poker player you should have enough discipline to take this money and put it into a bank account where it earns interest! Poker sites, like insurance companies, make serious money from pool of money they are free to invest.

Combining Nakamura's post above w/ Gator's I'd suggest taking whatever you are willing to lose, call that your bankroll, keep it in a separate bank account you won't touch except for poker. You can earn interest on it and yet still be properly rolled to play 5nl. You can track your play and wait until you are properly rolled for 10nl to move up (or move down to 2nl if you start losing and your bankroll drops). This way you don't fall into the trap of playing beyond your skill level and keep losing money just because you can afford to do it. I'd want more than a couple of buy-ins on my poker site of choice though. I've had 4+ buy-in downswings in one day.

[speedcake]

Plus, variance at $10NL is way lower than the two $5 levels (.02 and .04). At $10NL, the fish are rangeable, predictable, exploitable. My guess is they have a starting hand chart and have heard of this thing called pot odds, maybe even started reading an article on tight aggressive but stopped after the word tight.

I wouldn't say its way lower at all. The two levels are extremely similar and you seem to be giving 10NL players far too much credit. They are a bit tighter overall, but not by much. And besides the extra tightness is only another weakness to adjust to and to dominate.

And really at these levels I think we should be worried less about if our recent bad run was do more to variance than we should be worried it was more due to our bad play.

I just think it beyond a beginner to identify what is truly variance (aside from AA getting cracked, that's easy ) when in order to do so you have to know that you play optimally the vast majority of the time.

If you are not over rolled for your level, and not pwning said level, then the combo of variance and your own poor play is going to get you eventually. So don't move up until you can post stats showing you defeated 5NL and your roll isn't puny

[KeeKoLy]

If you are only playing this as a "hobby", meaning you don't care if you lose the $60 BR, then don't worry about it. If you have made it a point to not re-load your BR on the site like most of us, and you are doing this for a challenge, or to learn, or to make money, then yes move down.