10NL Low Set on Wet Board vs Solid Tagg

[xpaand]

I've been having a really tough time since my return to Stars and I want to start improving my decision making and ranges. I'm posting an in-dept analysis of the hand and I'm italicizing anything that I'm either unsure about, or I need an explanation to avoid it, etc. Thanks guys.

Villain is 13/11/18 over 92 Hands.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($8.89)
SB ($10.05)
BB ($10)
UTG ($5.05)
UTG+1 ($18.57)
MP1 ($13.07)
Hero (MP2) ($10)
MP3 ($8.65)
CO ($11.51)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 3, 3
3 folds, Hero bets $0.40, 4 folds, BB calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.85) 3, Q, J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.60, BB calls $0.60

Turn: ($2.05) 10 (2 players)
BB bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50

River: ($5.05) 7 (2 players)
BB bets $2, Hero?

Total pot: $9.05 | Rake: $0.44

PF - Std set mining raise

Flop - Villain's range after calling from BB is probably around 10-12% so {JJ-22,AQs-ATs,KJs+,QTs+,AQo-AJo,KQo}, as I don't see him not 3-betting QQ+/AK (4% 3-bet). I bet for value here; because of the small size of the pot, I can't prevent him from getting proper implied odds from 4+ card draws without overbetting the pot.

Turn - The turn card is brutal since it completes a flush and straight draw.

Possible combo's:

Flush: AJs, KJs (2)

Straight: No Combo's

Trips: JJ, TT (6)

2-Pair: QJ, QT (18)

Pair: AQ, AJ, ATs (27)

High Card: ---

Total Combo's: 53

Combo's that Beat Me: 8

My holding is ahead of most of his range before any Turn action. However, villain leads out on the turn, which could be interpreted as either a value bet (he must have a strong holding to bet 3/4 pot here for value, in which case he doesn't have anything less than 2-pair) or a bluff (since the fold equity went up high and this board hits his stronger range harder than it does mine). I don't see him holding AK much however because he probably would have 3-bet it PF. [During play I called here cause I had freaking trips =P]. I am unsure of the correct play since the villain seemed to be a solid Tagg and I didn't have too many reads on his bluffing frequencies.

River - 2/5 pot bet seems like a solid value bet, but other than that, I'm pretty lost with how to analyze this. I'm thinking that since he bet the river again (fairly moderately), the chances of him bluffing are super low and so he has nothing less than 2-pair, leaving me behind his range. He had a low WtSD (11%) and W$SD (100% - 1/1), which probably should have got me thinking I should fold here.

Anyways, I'd greatly appreciate any help with the analysis and please feel free to point out any fallacies in my argument/thought process/decision making.

[Imthenewfish]

I'd pot the flop because QJx seems to hit a bit of his range and I think we can get more value out of it because of this. I don't see him leading the turn without some weird hand like QT and JTs, flushes and straights(I don't really see any straights in his range unless he was drawing to a gutterball, and I don't think he is because hes 13/11 FR so I think he knows a thing or two). I'm just reading over your turn analysis now and i think it's pretty accurate. I'd kick a puppy and call river b/c we're getting pretty good odds and folding to a small bet here just seems super exploitable.

[NightGizmo]

His stats -- is that last number his % or just the aggression factor? If it's the %, then he is not very aggressive, so you should give more weight to his sudden aggression. If it's the aggression factor, then he is VERY aggressive and your line is fine, and the river is a call.

[xpaand]

Yeah it's his aggression factor. The thing that made me think more than twice about this hand was how he c/c'd then proceeded to lead out every street after the obvious draw was made.

[daven]

river is very close. On the river you have to be good about 22% for the call to be good, but i don't think there is much value to be had from a raise and i don't think it's good to be bluffing here unless you're confident villain loves his fold button.
Flop you can bet pot.
Turn is a tight fold, maybe.

[Imthenewfish]

river is very close. On the river you have to be good about 22% for the call to be good, but i don't think there is much value to be had from a raise and i don't think it's good to be bluffing here unless you're confident villain loves his fold button.
Flop you can bet pot.
Turn is a tight fold, maybe.

is this coming from the guy that folds quads?

[xpaand]

Thanks daven. What should be the way I think about it during play to figure out that I should have folded the turn and river. I mean obviously a lot of draws just became made, but if we are folding here every time vs a villain with these stats, aren't we gonna lose some EV in the long run (maybe not +EV, but LESS -EV).

[daven]

Thanks daven. What should be the way I think about it during play to figure out that I should have folded the turn and river. I mean obviously a lot of draws just became made, but if we are folding here every time vs a villain with these stats, aren't we gonna lose some EV in the long run (maybe not +EV, but LESS -EV).

ok, thing is that you state villain isn't stupid. This turn would be a pretty stupid place for him to bluff at 10nl cos he expects you to be calling with all sorts of shit, like, he could have AsQh types of hands that he thinks are ahead, and if not then redraw, but he is mostly doing it for perceived value with some QT/JT, some sets (unlikely) and some flushes and straights. Thing about turn is that if you're calling here then you're going to get into silly pot odds spots on the river. Calling here is also weird cos you don't have a plan for what to do when villain shoves a blank river...

some nits say that a bad fold is better than a bad call. I tend to make a lot of calls, many of which are bad when i realise i'm ahead of about 10% of villain's range. I notice that my winrate goes up when i call less, make of that what you will...

[supa]

Why do we not include QQ+,AK?Since villain has us isolated already,couldn't he not 3bet,and does that change our equity?(double negative,ha)

[supa]

Why do we not include QQ+,AK?Since villain has us isolated already,couldn't he not 3bet,and does that change our equity?(double negative,ha)

Sorry about bumping my own question but since surviva eluded to an answer and I'm still wondering about it,only because I think I don't 3bet enough.I would normally not 3bet here because-

1)Villain is already Isolated
2)A 3bet might cause villain to fold pre with lesser hands

Are there any other reasons I might not 3bet here and for what reasons would I?

[rpm]

i'll do this without reading your analysis or any other responses:

for relatively unknown players, i like to try to imagine the widest range they would call with. because we narrow villain's ranges with every street, i think it's better to have every hand that is in his range in your estimate of his range, than it is to give him too much "credit" and exclude some combos which are in it and could play a vital part in decisions on later streets. so i'm going to say

22-QQ, A8s+,A9o+,KTs+,KTo+,QTs+,QTo+,JTs,JTo,56s-T9s

Flop: ($0.85) 3, Q, J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.60, BB calls $0.60

tbh i'd prefer at least 70c here, the boards texture is such that i doubt he's going to fuck with you with any marginal holdings - any hand he calls with is usually a flush/straight draw or a pair of jacks or better. when he calls he thinks he has a decent chance of having the best hand or making the best hand. thus we get value. range:

JJ(3),QQ(3),A8-ATss(3),AK(16),AJo(12),AQo(12),KT(16),KJ+(24),QT+( 21),JT(12),65ss-89ss(3),T9s(4)

calculating the combos of that range took ages and messed with me because at first i tried to divide them into "made" hands and "draws" so we could see how it was weighted but then i fucked up and ended up doing it as so. point out any errors you see and i'll edit them in.

Turn: ($2.05) 3, Q, J 10 (2 players)
BB bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50
i think this turn lead here is almost always for value, but i also think he bets lots of two pair hands and top pair with the K or A of spades for "value" here, it'll be interesting to see your equity once i think of a range:

JJ,QQ,A8ss-A9ss(2),AK(16),AsJx(3),AsQx(3),KsTx(3),KsJx(3),QT+ (18),JT(9),56ss-89ss(3)

against which we have:

Board: 3s Qs Jh Ts
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.695% 59.70% 00.00% 2075 0.00 { 3d3h }
Hand 1: 40.305% 40.30% 00.00% 1401 0.00 { QQ-JJ, AKs, AsJs, As9s, A8s, KsJs, QTs+, JTs, 9s8s, 87s, 76s, 65s, AKo, AsQc, AsQd, AsQh, AsJc, AsJd, KsJc, KsJd, KsTc, KsTd, KsTh, QTo+, JTo }

decent equity, but i like your call because once we raise, his range becomes much stronger and our equity becomes much worse. i could very well have messed up some combo calculations or the input into stove, it got pretty nitpicky. i can edit it later if so. onto the river.



River: ($5.05) 3, Q, J 10 7 (2 players)
BB bets $2, Hero?
again, i think this line is almost never a bluff, but i imagine he bets a decent amount of his turn range on this river, as it seems pretty harmless, also his betsizing is small so i would include lots of "thin value" hands that were in his turn range. you're getting 3.4:1 (22.5% equity needed to breakeven on a call) which i imagine you will be calling. range:

JJ,QQ,A8ss-A9ss(2),AK(16),QT+(18),JT(9),56ss-89ss(3)


Board: 3s Qs Jh Ts 7h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.091% 49.09% 00.00% 27 0.00 { 3d3h }
Hand 1: 50.909% 50.91% 00.00% 28 0.00 { QQ-JJ, AKs, As9s, As8s, QTs+, JTs, 9s8s, 8s7s, 7s6s, 6s5s, AKo, QTo+, JTo }

call imo.

[dranger7070]

Hero raised in MP2, villain flatted in BB and his 3bet is 4% over the small sample Hero has on him. We're assuming he 3bets QQ+, AK which isn't a terrible assumption obv.

[rpm]

true. i've seen some AK flatting out of the blinds lately at 10nl, but i wouldn't expect it from a 13/11 who has 3bet (albeit probably once) in the sample we have on him. lucky removing those combos makes it an easier call

[caddie444]

Opening 33 here preflop is fine,it's a style thing but you're going to find yourself in some awkward c-betting spots vs callers since there is definitly a small % of flops you can really like. In order to be opening hands like this you need to have a very specific idea of what villains who are behind you are capable of calling with in position as well as they're post-flop tendencies (ie what boards are they folding to c-bets, are they passive with draws, do they flat monsters preflop in position etc) Just some things to think about when you open small pairs in MP.

Def c-bet flop more as the part of his range that is continuing to a bet will most likely call a pot sized bet and you want to get some $$$ when your equity is def good against BB's range.

Good job just calling turn

River is interesting. Without getting too much into the math, it's obvious villain's range isn't weighted towards bluffs, but I believe we have enough equity vs his value range to pay off his smallish river bet. Since we only need to be good here 22% of the time we are never losing/winning a lot by calling/folding, in fact it's probably close to 0 EV, but raising can def cost us some $$$. I call and note him up if we are beat.

[surviva316]

folding the turn seems ridiculous. even in the absence of showdown value (and we obviously have showdown value), we have a nut draw that's gonna get paid off whenever it hits.

also, he won't always 3b AK/QQ preflop. in fact it's not even the correct play to make against a lot of regs.

i call the river without too many reads against a 10nl reg. tbh, i don't think there's a range that i can put him on that we have good enough equity against to call, per se (especially since he's never bluffing). i just think it's such a small amount that some relatively unknown 10nl reg can show up with something weird often enough to justify a call.

also, i'm forced to applaud him if he's really enough of a thinking player at this stake to recognize how weak our range is and go for a <1/2 PSB on the river with a flush. if it were someone expected to be very good, i'd be more likely to be scared of middle sets and better and less likely to put him on medium-strength hands

[surviva316]

not to sound like captain obvious, but the main determinant for whether i'm going to 3b here or not is whether or not i think he's going to continue with dominated hands.

there are a lot of regs (especially at FR) who wouldn't continue with AQ- when facing a 3b to their MP open, and it's not even all that uncommon that i think that a 6m opener OTB isn't calling enough to justify 3b'ing.

of course it's 10nl, so sans reads, i'm just assuming that they don't know how to fold pretty hands, so i'm exploiting that by value 3b'ing them with AK