Implied Odds - is this hand -EV? 25NL

[Sup3rM4N]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed)

UTG ($26.05)
MP ($53.75)
Hero ($33.95)
SB ($24.55)
BB ($35.20)

Preflop: Hero is Button with , .
2 folds, Hero raises to $1, 1 fold, BB raises to $3.5

Villian is 9/7/3.2 3B:0% over 120+ hands. SB is a nit too so my range from button is pretty wide, but I havent been going too crazy stealing. Against almost any other oppenents this is a insta-fold for me, prlly wudn have even raised from button but since both blidnds are so nitty, i cudn resist. This hand is prlly at the absolute bottom of my range. I'm sure he has a big pair and will stack off if I hit. By hit meaning 2 pairs or better or flush draw with a gutter atleast. Those are the only hands im wiling to shove on the flop with and lets say there is no FE for villain. If his stack was below 25, i wudda folded as well. Do I have implied odds to call this and more importantly, how would I go on about figuring it out myself?

[langaan]

the steal is fine here, but give up the hand to the 3 bet.

the only way it makes sence to play this hand any further is if you think you are hitting the flop 1 in 10 times, and gauranteed to stack the villain when you do.

this would just barely be a call with a low PP, never mind low sc. alot of people would fold low PP's to this 3bet.

assuming no FE

someone else can post the math for the ev...

[Erpel]

Now, I'll preface my comments by saying this is not a situation I've mastered - I too am a beginner.

To discuss this hand, I think I would want to extend the scope of the discussion a bit to this: How can you profitably play 43s given the HH to this point and the villain profile?

The short answer is: "Just fold." In terms of hitting the flop and making a better hand than what he is likely holding - you are calling $2.5 to win approx $34 if and only if he's willing to stack off with what he has - which would give you odds of 17 to 1. If you had a pocket pair this would actually be slightly low odds to call for set value. One rule is that his stack needs to offer you odds of 20-25 to 1 even though you are about 8 to 1 to flop a set - because he simply doesn't stack off often enough. Check this one out:
http://www.flopturnriver.com/Common-Flop-Odds.html

Couple important ones:

Common odds when holding two suited cards:
flopping a flush (including the slight chance of a straight flush in some cases) 0.842%
flopping a four flush 10.944%

Common odds when holding connectors from 54 to JT
flopping a straight (including the slight chance of a straight flush in some cases) 1.306%
flopping an 8 out straight draw* 10.449%

I don't have the numbers for 43 as opposed to 54, but I know they are worse - but for the purposes of this discussion I'll use the numbers as if we were talking about 54.
As a basic calculation exercise you may want to consider why the correct way to arrive at flopping either a made straight, a made flush an open-ended straight draw or a flush draw is calculated in this way (for 54s): 1 - (1 - 0.00842 - 0.10944) * (1 - 0.01306 - 0.10449) / 100. Which is approximately 22.16%. This is a very rough order-of-magnitude calculation which probably counts a flopped straight flush twice - and it's worth keeping in mind that only around 2% of the time do you actually flop a completed flush or straight (and the villain could easily have a better flush) - by far the most of these flops that you 'hit' are still drawing hands and more likely to miss than hit on later streets.

To play this hand I think this is a situation where it's important to have an idea what the villain thinks. A lot of the value for you in this hand, if you play it, has to come from fold equity. That is, value that is realised by making him think you have a big hand and folding. If you do not think you can confidently play the hand in a way that translates into fold equity then you do need to fold (and fast).

To the above it is important what you think villain puts you on if you respectively call or re-raise pre-flop. If he puts you on something like 99-JJ if you call and the flop comes J73 rainbow can you play in a way that convinces him you have a set and he needs to fold his two overcards (which may be AK)? A pre-flop re-raise from you might fold out AK, AQ, JJ, TT or even QQ type hands - if he is one to 3bet them in the first place - and one to fold them if he does. He could call some of them.

With a 3.2 AF there's a risk you can't assume he'll let you see free cards - he might do re-raises and put you all-in if you bluff. If he doesn't get to fire the aggression he may be inclined to let a good hand go. It would be really useful if we had an idea of his 3bettting range. Being able to put more than AA or KK in his 3bet range would be great.

If...
.. you have a very good idea what the villain has
.. and this includes at least AK, but also preferably AQ and other unpaired overcards
.. you have a good tight image and know villain will put you on something like 99-JJ
.. villain can make big folds (AK/AQ at least on a missed flop - preferably also KK-QQ)
.. you plan to play any 9-J on the flop as if it's the mortal nuts

I can see a call here being a high variance slightly plus EV play - very occasionally. But you'd need to be mentally at peace with the idea that you might be putting your entire stack in on a bluff (if the conditions pan out). You can only realize the fold equity potential in this hand through aggression - and you can only play this hand profitably if you have fold equity.

If I the conditions were right and I decided to play this hand I would open push any flop with a 9-J on it, and maybe also any one-colour flop as he could have put AKs in your range also (and then hope he doesn't hold the A or K in the suit on the board). There are other lines you can take with other types of flops that convey the same image, but the question is if there are enough of them that you can play and play them convincingly and whether the villain can fold.

[Erpel]

Btw, if you do plan to bluff the hand you need to consider timing tells and have your actions planned out ahead of time so you can use the timing on your action that best corresponds to the hand strength you want the villain to read. Almost everyone reads timing tells, although many do it subconsciously. If someone says 'it feels wrong' - it's probably a timing tell.

If you do plan to play it as a bluff I would tend to favour a call over a raise pre-flop. If you re-raise (4bet) you make it so that any range he puts you on is probably the exact same range he's on. It'll be hard to make him think he has a different strength hand than you under those circumstances. A call could translate to a medium pocket pair, which is unlikely to be what he's holding, meaning that cards can hit your range without also hitting his.

[Robb]

I'm sure he has a big pair and will stack off if I hit. By hit meaning 2 pairs or better or flush draw with a gutter atleast. Those are the only hands im wiling to shove on the flop with and lets say there is no FE for villain. If his stack was below 25, i wudda folded as well. Do I have implied odds to call this and more importantly, how would I go on about figuring it out myself?

Read this post: Playing PP's, especially at end where Jeffery weighs in on sc's and implied odds.

General consensus is that you need 30 to 1 implied odds since you're about 20 to 1 against hitting 2 pair or better on the flop. So fold, imo.

[Erpel]

...you are calling $2.5 to win approx $34 if and only if he's willing to stack off with what he has - which would give you odds of 17 to 1.

See this is me being stupid and dividing 34 by 2 instead of 2.5. Dividing by 2.5 lands you on 13.6. I'm using $34 here because you have to add the 1$ already paid by you into the pot that you need to win and subtract an amount for the rake to be completely accurate. 13.5 to 1 is the right ballpark and suggests a fold on card value alone.

Your read of "I'm sure he has a big pair and will stack off if I hit" if 100% means that you would need to modify the 30 to 1 guide Robb mentions downwards - maybe down towards 20ish - but frankly I'd be more inclined to question your read. I don't think you can 1) put him 100% on AA/KK - I think AK is also quite likely and 2) I don't think you can put odds of him stacking off at 100%. If flop comes 765 all diamonds and you bet it heavily - he might easily fold.