Pocket 2's, Effective Stacks and Implied Odds

[Robb]

We're in MP at NL10 with 22 and 100BB stack. TAGG UTG opens with a 4xBB raise (he also has 100BB stack). We call. Button LAGG with 50BB stack raises to 12BB, TAGG calls for 8BB more. Do we fold or call?

The 10x effective stack rule seems common. Let's assume that's our criteria. Effective stack is capped by LAGG's 42BB's left, and it takes 8BB to call. So with effective stack less than 6x the call, we fold.

I've seen posters say this is autofold, on FTR and elsewhere. That makes no sense to me. If both villain's seem likely to stack off with TP, 2 pr stuff, why aren't we calling here?

My view is this. Without the LAGG involved, we have 88BB's from the TAGG, or 11x our call. And there's dead money in the pot if we end up heads up against him. If we're last to act and can't get raised, shouldn't we call here? We have roughly the same likelihood of stacking the TAGG with or without the LAGG, so doesn't his stack and preflop bet money just make the call easier?

Some of the time, the TAGG gets chased out by the LAGG, but when he does he likely didn't have the cards to stack off to our set anyway. And the 22 plays OK postflop against the LAGG, though we have very little maneuvering room. And we'll almost surely get his stack when we flop the set.

This happens a lot at the micros, even in 4-way rr'd pots pre, with a short stack jumping in for fun. If we have 2 (or more) TAGG villains with big stacks in there already, shouldn't we be calling the rr?

Flame away.

[Ash256]

The tighter their ranges pre the happier you should be to make the call pre.. 22 does not play well against the LAG though.

[Robb]

The tighter their ranges pre the happier you should be to make the call pre.. 22 does not play well against the LAG though.

Sorry, I misspoke there. I meant it plays easy - either you hit the flop or check/fold.

[jyms]

Having a shorty in the pot makes this call tougher than you think. they can really screw up your chances of stacking the big stack, and remember, if you don't stack him almost 100% of the time when making a 10:1 call. You don't just account for when you hit your set, but what about the times you hit your set and still lose? If he fails to stack off once, and times you hit your set, you will get set over setted, or beat by a better hand, this all adds to the calculations.

[martindcx1e]

Hasn't the 10x rule become the 15x or 20x rule nowadays?

[Robb]

Hasn't the 10x rule become the 15x or 20x rule nowadays?

I think so, depending upon villain reads and stakes. I was just using 10x to make things easy. I play NL10, and won't EVER call with less than 10x and often won't with 12x or 13x, depending upon villain. We need him to stack off when we hit. Stations are good

[Chopper]

i think theres a whole lot more to this than, "is it profitable to call using 10X?"

the TAG opened from UTG suggesting a very solid hand. you call with set odds. LAGG sees this and squeezes, or did he? what is LAG's 3betting range? wide, we assume, but not for EVERY LAG. however, TAG only calls? open/call from TAGs usually suggest AK/JJ-QQ? unless he's getting cute with bullets.

if TAG has AK, what will you do if the flop comes J 7 2? you need an A on this flop, most likely....and then, you are left hoping TAG doesnt have QQ.

however, LAG made a great move here because he removed ALL of your implied odds, and you and TAG have no clue what he could hold.

either way, its "set or fold" for you. and, you need a HUGE pay off on your set when you do hit it. and, LAG could make this difficult. if TAG checks, you lead, and LAG raises or pushes, then what? what will TAG do? sure, you likely take LAG's stack as a consolation prize, but that clearly loses money in the long run.

bottom line is, to me, this is a clear fold. TAG isnt stacking off here enough to call the extra 8 BBs with 22. if you held JJ, it may be something to consider, but not with less, imo.

Hasn't the 10x rule become the 15x or 20x rule nowadays?

maybe higher up. but, down where we play, martin, i feel 10X is still fine because others will stack off so much lighter. i still use 10X, and pp's are BY FAR my biggest winners.

[littleogre]

Having a shorty in the pot makes this call tougher than you think. they can really screw up your chances of stacking the big stack, and remember, if you don't stack him almost 100% of the time when making a 10:1 call. You don't just account for when you hit your set, but what about the times you hit your set and still lose? If he fails to stack off once, and times you hit your set, you will get set over setted, or beat by a better hand, this all adds to the calculations.

this is one of the reasons why i hate short stackers. I tried to explain it to a poster at another forum but he was to dumb to understand and got all defensive so i gave up.

[Robb]

Having a shorty in the pot makes this call tougher than you think. they can really screw up your chances of stacking the big stack, and remember, if you don't stack him almost 100% of the time when making a 10:1 call. You don't just account for when you hit your set, but what about the times you hit your set and still lose? If he fails to stack off once, and times you hit your set, you will get set over setted, or beat by a better hand, this all adds to the calculations.

this is one of the reasons why i hate short stackers. I tried to explain it to a poster at another forum but he was to dumb to understand and got all defensive so i gave up.

Short stackers are polarized - either good at using their short stacks (small fraction) or complete idiots whose real odds (since they play complete crap) are good enough we don't need implied odds. It's hard to tell which ones are just bad before they go broke. So I get pretty frustrated with shorties myself.

About Jyms comment, we also add some value to our pp for a cbet someo f the 6 or 7 time we miss the set and it's checked to us with a dry flop, so that's one reason 10x can be a decent rule. A lot of villains are weak-tight postflop at NL10.

Finally, I'm starting to see why the short stack is potentially screwing things up in this pot, and why the call is dangerous. Thanks for the ideas.

[littleogre]

Having a shorty in the pot makes this call tougher than you think. they can really screw up your chances of stacking the big stack, and remember, if you don't stack him almost 100% of the time when making a 10:1 call. You don't just account for when you hit your set, but what about the times you hit your set and still lose? If he fails to stack off once, and times you hit your set, you will get set over setted, or beat by a better hand, this all adds to the calculations.

this is one of the reasons why i hate short stackers. I tried to explain it to a poster at another forum but he was to dumb to understand and got all defensive so i gave up.

Short stackers are polarized - either good at using their short stacks (small fraction) or complete idiots whose real odds (since they play complete crap) are good enough we don't need implied odds. It's hard to tell which ones are just bad before they go broke. So I get pretty frustrated with shorties myself.

About Jyms comment, we also add some value to our pp for a cbet someo f the 6 or 7 time we miss the set and it's checked to us with a dry flop, so that's one reason 10x can be a decent rule. A lot of villains are weak-tight postflop at NL10.

Finally, I'm starting to see why the short stack is potentially screwing things up in this pot, and why the call is dangerous. Thanks for the ideas.

I have heard that good short stackers can be a real pain but at 5 and 2 nl i can tell you i have nver seen one. They are all donktards who shove any ace any pair or any 2 cards with a value of ten or higher. Position is also meaningless to them. Also they never refill as the blinds eat their stack so you will see them at the table with 5xbb or less

[jyms]

Hasn't the 10x rule become the 15x or 20x rule nowadays?

ABSOLUTELY. Doesn't matter what stakes you play. Flopping a set only 1:7.5 means you need to get the stack almost every time if you call with 10x. If you don't get the stack 1 out of 10 times you need at least 1:12, never mind set over sets, losing to flush and straight draws and when you don't stack KK because an A falls on the flop. So many things scare people off of hands that you need at least 15:1 and that's if every condition points to a stack. I can pretty much guarantee nobody is reaping 15X on average at any stake. This may be the bottom end, but I doubt it very much.

[paulwright]

I agree with Robb. You can still win the pot without flopping a set - dry flops, scare cards etc. Remember that you do have a hand - and villian has A high many times.

You just need to know your villian here - its about reads + position.

To call 10x you need to know how villian plays. If he is tight post flop - you want to see a low flop and take it. If he is loose you can consider taking his cbet with a raise.

If an A or K falls on flop (50% from memory) and you miss your set - you can drop it either way.

Alternatively - he may have raised with a pair - and if he is tight and checks an A high flop - you bet in position and take it.

In all scenarios - having position is a major advantage which needs to be considered when calling with as little as 10x on offer but 10x is fine against the right opponent.

The higher your PP the better also obviously - you'd be more inclined to call 10x with 99 than 22 against a shorty.

[jyms]

Calling pre does not equal taking down pots on dry flops. You gusy are making excuses to call with bad odds. Go ahead and call with 10x effective stacks, your losing money, a ton of money.

[martindcx1e]

Calling pre does not equal taking down pots on dry flops. You gusy are making excuses to call with bad odds. Go ahead and call with 10x effective stacks, your losing money, a ton of money.

Agreed. The 10x rule is the absolute MINIMUM to set-hunt assuming perfect conditions (such as we always stack him when we set and we always win when we set). It's hard to assume these kinds of conditions so the 10x rule really shouldn't be followed strictly.

[jyms]

3/3 opens for 4BB UTG with 40BB stack remaining, and everyone folds to me. I am on the Button with 55, I fold.

[Robb]

Calling pre does not equal taking down pots on dry flops. You gusy are making excuses to call with bad odds. Go ahead and call with 10x effective stacks, your losing money, a ton of money.

I got that one backwards - I was thinking (on the reply post) of raising with pp's , and getting called (obviously I screwed up - but there you go). Yeah, Jyms, not much "fold equity" is generated by preflop call, and we're probably going to have to fold to a cbet ourselves or check behind.

[euphoricism]

3/3 opens for 4BB UTG with 40BB stack remaining, and everyone folds to me. I am on the Button with 55, I fold.

Shania says that is a little narrowsighted.

[jyms]

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