Ramblings on 8/9-Out Drawing Hands

[spoonitnow]

I'm sort of at a weird spot in the development of my game and I'm going to type out a bunch of random crap about common drawing spots with straight or flush draws in hopes that it'll internalize some things I still probably screw up occasionally. Also, I'm hoping questions get asked, comments get made, and this has an end result of making me think deeper about things I take for granted, if that makes any sense.

But anyway, I'll use $100nl for examples since the dollar amount matches the number of big blinds and it looks all pretty and whatnot (and also since it's the current stakes I'm playing).

I. Implied Odds on 1 street vs 2 streets

Assume a 9-handed table with $100 effective stacks. You are on the button with A 3 , and there are four limpers. You decide to just call behind instead of raising the limpers this time. The SB completes and the BB checks.

The pot is $7 and everyone in the hand has $99 behind. The flop comes K 9 8 , giving us the nut flush draw. Since there are 47 cards we don't know and 9 cards that help us, the odds of hitting our draw on the next card is 4.22:1. The SB bets $7 followed by five folds, and it's $7 to us in a pot of $14, and we call.

So if we hit on the turn, how much do we have to extract over the turn and river to make our flop call profitable? Since our pot odds are 2:1 and our chance of hitting are 4.22:1, then the difference is 2.22 times the size of the bet we're calling, so that's the amount we have to make up if we hit. This amount is barely over $15.50.

Since after we call, the pot will be $21, we only need to extract about 3/4ths of that over two streets to break even, AND we're in position, it seems like the call is obvious.

Suppose the turn is a brick, putting the board at something like K 9 8 J . The pot is $21 and the players have $92 behind each. The SB bets $14, making it $14 to call $35, giving you pot odds of 2.5:1. Now you are presumably 4.11:1 to hit your 9-out draw.

Now if we call, we're having to make up 4.11-2.5 = 1.61 times $14 when we hit on the river in order to break even. In this scenario, we'll have to average making $22.50 on the river when we hit to break even on a call.

The river pot will be $49, so if a club comes on the river, it's likely villain will check since we called a bet on both the flop and the river. To put this into perspective, at this point a $25 bet will break even if it's called 90% of the time, a $30 bet will break even if it's called 75% of the time, and a $35 bet will break even if it's called 64% of the time.

It's possible that the turn call is profitable against the typical 100nl opponent, but it's the flop call that's clearly +EV. Also, if our opponent bets more on the turn, it becomes harder to turn a call into a profitable play, but we can be facing a pot-sized bet on the flop and still figure a call as a profitable play.

II. Picking Up Outs on the Turn

Assume a 9-handed table with $100 effective stacks. A tight UTG raises to $4, there an MP caller ahead of you on the button with T 9 . You elect to call, the SB calls, and the BB folds.

On the flop, the pot is $17. The board comes Q 7 4 , giving you a flush draw. SB checks, UTG bets $14, MP calls $14, and it's $14 to you in a $45 pot. You're getting 3.21:1 in position behind two guys who seem to like their hand, so it's reasonable to believe the call is +EV. SB folds.

On the turn, the pot is $59. Everyone still in the pot has $82 behind. The turn comes the 8 giving you some more outs. Now any spade gives you a flush (9 outs), plus any 6 or J that's a non-spade gives you a very concealed straight (6 outs). UTG bets $50, and MP folds. Let's examine the situation:

The pot is $109 and you'll be calling $50. You and UTG will both have $32 left behind if you call. Overall, you presumably now have 15 outs and since there are 46 cards you haven't seen yet, you'll need 2.07:1 to break even if all of your outs are good. However, you're getting 2.18:1 on the call, and since the % of time you'll pick up his remaining $27 on the river is greater than zero, the call is good.

The difference here is that even though you missed on the turn, you picked up outs that turned even a pot-sized bet on the turn into a +EV call for you.

III. Straight Draws are Harder to Detect

Assume a 9-handed table with $100 effective stacks. You are on the button, and there are four limpers. You call. The SB completes and the BB checks.

Consider the differences now in having A 8 on a flop of Q 9 2 and in having T 8 on a flop of A 9 7 .

While the first scenario lends you to having more outs, in the second scenario, if you hit your hand, it's going to be much more hidden. When your opponents have a made hand on the flop, say two pair or a set, they're going to be much more likely to pay you off when you hit your draw in the second scenario than in the first scenario. The reason is simple: straight draws are often harder to pick up on than flush draws. Anyone can see three of a suit on a board, but it's harder to pick up on when a weird straight draw has hit.

IV. Free Card Plays

The free card play for hold'em is when you raise on the flop in position in an attempt to get your opponent to lead with a check on the turn. Then you check behind, and your raise on the flop essentially bought a free card. Also, you may have fold equity with your raise, an added benefit.

While the extra street you get to see isn't exactly free, it generally costs less total than you would anticipate if you called both a flop and turn bet. There are numerous examples of this so I won't give another.

Going along with point III, the free card play is easier to identify if the flop is two-tone, and is much harder to identify if the flop is rainbow. Likewise, you'll likely have more fold equity with straight draws on a rainbow board. When you're against a made hand on the flop, the free card play can backfire, but often your opponent will just call and let you check through on the turn, creating a spot where if you hit with a draw that's hard to see, you'll often stack your villain.

The free card play followed up with a second barrel on the turn if you miss is also an option, but I won't get off onto that tangent here.

V. Tainted Outs

In general you should be careful when you have a straight draw on a two-tone flop, or a 8/9-out draw on a paired flop. Often it's best to just let the draw go if you think your opponent likely has trips. The reason for this is that occasionally you'll hit your draw, but your opponent will improve as well making a hand better than yours, and you'll take a big loss in the process. This really kills the value of your draws.

This basically comes down to relative hand strength, a topic Renton covered in one of his post-flop guides.

However, sort of going along with point I, if the turn pairs the board after a relatively safe flop, or puts two to a suit on the board when you have a straight draw, you have to make sure you re-evaluate the new situation correctly instead of just chasing away.


This isn't meant to be some sort of guide or anything; I'm just looking to open some discussion about some really basic stuff. Feel free to post example hands or whatever you want on the subject.

[bigspenda73]

Alright, my thinking against a normal 100nl TAGG would be to play our draws aggressively if we have a good image.

Shoving over flop raises or at the very least threatening their stack seems to be a better play than just calling. This to me, applies more OOP than in position. In position I'm more willing to call to float/draw and manipulate the pot size. OOP I'd much rather c/r AI if the stack to pot-size ratio dictates. There are a few reasons for this:

1. Opponents are likely to over-value our range here, they tend to weight us range towards 2pr/set in these spots and not necessarily draws thereby giving us some semblance of fold equity.

2. We can now profitably fast-play our sets on more dangerous boards and be expected to get looked up more often than not.

Yea, that's me rambling, not as long as yours, but my 2 cents.

[spoonitnow]

Alright, my thinking against a normal 100nl TAGG would be to play our draws aggressively if we have a good image.

Shoving over flop raises or at the very least threatening their stack seems to be a better play than just calling. This to me, applies more OOP than in position. In position I'm more willing to call to float/draw and manipulate the pot size. OOP I'd much rather c/r AI if the stack to pot-size ratio dictates. There are a few reasons for this:

1. Opponents are likely to over-value our range here, they tend to weight us range towards 2pr/set in these spots and not necessarily draws thereby giving us some semblance of fold equity.

2. We can now profitably fast-play our sets on more dangerous boards and be expected to get looked up more often than not.

Yea, that's me rambling, not as long as yours, but my 2 cents.

Yeah, I completely agree that most of my original post was pretty passive, and almost entirely in position.

OOP I'd much rather c/r AI if the stack to pot-size ratio dictates.

What sort of stack to pot-size ratio would you say makes this a good play? bad play? half-and-half? I'm still not up-to-date on a lot of stack to pot-size ratio stuff -- haven't gotten my copy of PNL yet

[spoonitnow]

Just thinking about some straight-forward OOP spots.

$100 stacks, .5/1 blinds, 9-handed table

Raise to $4 with A Q from EP, get an LP caller.

Flop: Pot is $9.50, we have $96 behind. K 9 7

We check, villain bets $8, making the pot $17.50 and he has $88 behind. If we raise to $20...

Betting $20 to win $17.50, and we need to win 53.33% of the time to immediately break even.

If villain calls, we have 8 outs to the nuts, and 1 out that pairs the board and gives us our flush. I'll ignore the possibly poisoned out for the moment. We are 17% to hit on the turn with just our 8 clean outs.

p = percent of time we win on the flop
0.17 = percent of time we hit when he calls

EV of winning on flop p*$17.50
EV of being called on flop and not hitting on turn (1-p)*$20*(1-0.17)
EV of being called on the flop and hitting on the turn (1-p)*$20*0.17

Total EV = 17.5p - (1-p)(20)(0.83) + (1-p)(20)(0.17)
= 17.5p - (16.6 - 16.6p) + (3.4 - 3.4p)
= 17.5p - 16.6 + 16.6p + 3.4 - 3.4p
= 30.7p - 13.2

And the break-even point for winning on the flop changes to 43.0% of the time when we consider our 8 outs to the nuts. Of course we may get 3-bet on the flop, but our aces and the 9 might also be outs to sort of counter-balance that.

[Clar17y]

I've also been having some thoughts on this recently.

Mainly, that it might always be +ev to call with draws on the flop, as long as the bet size is relatively small in comparison to stack sizes. This is just because if we hit that gutshot on the turn we'll definitely get our money back, and if we miss we can just fold the turn.
It also gives us a chance to take the pot away if villain was just c-betting and checks the turn, we can fire out and sometimes take down the pot.

So OESD and FDs i definitely call on the flop, and sometimes i'll float with a gutshot. If you hit it, you'll be paid if villain has a made hand and if you miss you can sometimes take it away on the turn.

Sounds ok?

Clar

[spoonitnow]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (7 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

CO ($96.50)
Hero ($119.25)
SB ($76.40)
BB ($155.95)
UTG ($123.25)
MP1 ($51.75)
MP2 ($18.50)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T, A.
4 folds, Hero raises to $4, 1 fold, BB calls $3.

Flop: ($8.50) Q, 2, 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $7, BB calls $7.

Turn: ($22.50) K (2 players)
BB checks, Hero ...

Of interest to me here is that I've picked up some more outs on the turn but I probably have some fold equity as well. So I'm going to compare the immediate EV of checking through versus the EV of betting $18. I'm not going to consider the river betting round yet.

EV of Calling

The current pot is $22.50 and we have seven clean club outs plus two additional clean jack outs. On top of this, the 2 , K and J may also be outs, but I'll discount them to half an out each for a total of about 10.5 outs.

This puts us at 3.38:1, or about 22.8%. Then 22.8% of $22.50 is $5.14.

EV of Betting

Let's call p the percent of time villain will fold to our bet of $18. Then the EV of us betting is:

*** Edit:

Total EV = 22.5p - (1-p)(1-0.228)(18) + (1-p)(0.228)(22.5)
= 22.5p - 13.896 + 13.896p + 5.13 - 5.13p
= 31.266p - 8.766

I think I screwed up here. When computing the EV of when he calls and we hit our draw, I didn't account for the money he puts in the pot when he calls. I'll fix the rest of the post accordingly.

ev of him folding = 22.5p
ev of him calling and we miss = (1-p)(1-0.228)(-18)
ev of him calling and we hit = (1-p)(0.228)(22.5+18)

Total EV = 22.5p - (1-p)(1-0.228)(18) + (1-p)(0.228)(22.5+18)
= 22.5p - 13.896 + 13.896p + 9.234 - 9.234p
= 27.162p - 4.662
= 0.172

And we break even when villain folds 17% of the time. However, we want to see when the value of the play will be greater than $5.14. So, $5.14 < 27.162p - 4.662 gives us 36%. If we feel villain will fold more than 36% of the time to our turn bet, then immediately it's more profitable.

Whether we call or bet has implications on the river action when we hit as well, but I'm a little more concerned with flop and turn play for the moment.

[bigspenda73]

Betting that turn has to be good b/c he should have to fast play his sets on that board. Therefore on the turn he either has a 33-QQ non set hand that he should fold to 2 barrels or a much smaller range of KQ/QJ/AQ that he probably isn't folding. It also helps to merge your 2 barrel range b/c usually we have so little equity when called when we two barrel here.

As for the OOP spot, b/3bet AI against aggro players is good b/c you still have some FE. Against a passive pansy, b/c the flop is fine, probably c/f a bricked turn I guess, all depends on bet-sizing though.

Also, I don't have a copy of PNL, but I've heard and read a little bit about pot/stack ratio in the past.

[spoonitnow]

Betting that turn has to be good b/c he should have to fast play his sets on that board. Therefore on the turn he either has a 33-QQ non set hand that he should fold to 2 barrels or a much smaller range of KQ/QJ/AQ that he probably isn't folding. It also helps to merge your 2 barrel range b/c usually we have so little equity when called when we two barrel here.

As for the OOP spot, b/3bet AI against aggro players is good b/c you still have some FE. Against a passive pansy, b/c the flop is fine, probably c/f a bricked turn I guess, all depends on bet-sizing though.

Also, I don't have a copy of PNL, but I've heard and read a little bit about pot/stack ratio in the past.

I know that the ratio of the pot to the stacks is important and use it but not the way I see it getting referred to occasionally is all.

[breathweapon]

I wrote this before I figured out you were talking about multi-way draws, IMO, there isn't much to multi way draws other than determining whether or not you have the + EV to bet or call on the flop and turn, and whether or not you want to lead the pot, steal the pot or AI on the resteal.

This is mostly H2H and raising OP stuff,

When you have a Straight draw that's forfeiting outs to a Flush draw, you can fold, but instead of folding or calling to a 6 outer, you should be more inclined to re-raise.

If you re-raise, you give yourself an opportunity to win the pot with out worrying about the flush on the turn or the flush draw on the river. If your opponent goes over the top, then he's going over the top with high card value, so you're outs are more likely to be live. If he caps with high card value, then you can bluff the flush draw on the turn, which gives you "pseudo outs" to the hand. It's also very likely you've priced out the flush draw, or if the flush draw caps and X hits, you can bluff the flush draw off the hand with "high card" value.

OP,

Check raising with draws is cute H2H, but depending on the board, most of the time it's better to just CBet if you opened the hand from UTG to the Cutoff against the Button and consider whether or not you should double barrel the turn. The biggest advantage to this is that if the draw hits on the turn, it's difficult for your opponent to put you on it. If you bet, it encourages them to bluff the board. If you check, it encourages them to bet out. If you check call, then you can blocking bet bluff the river for value and to set up a re-raise or you can check to encourage them to do something stupid. If its a straight draw, you should be even more aggressive with it, because the odds of the opponent being on a flush draw are a lot higher when he's in position. If it's a flush draw, it actually makes sense for you to slow down when it hits, because that's what TPTK usually does in that position.

More often than not, you should be giving yourself a chance to win the pot with a draw immediately or at least by the turn if you're in position H2H. If you're forfeiting outs, then don't let them buy cards or give them free cards. Most importantly, combine your drawing and your set lines, because people will fold to your draws and pay off your sets more often.
C/Raising is texture and seat dependent, you have to really think about your lines when you do this.

[spoonitnow]

I wrote this before I figured out you were talking about multi-way draws, IMO, there isn't much to multi way draws other than determining whether or not you have the + EV to bet or call on the flop and turn, and whether or not you want to lead the pot, steal the pot or AI on the resteal.

This is mostly H2H and raising OP stuff,

When you have a Straight draw that's forfeiting outs to a Flush draw, you can fold, but instead of folding or calling to a 6 outer, you should be more inclined to re-raise.

If you re-raise, you give yourself an opportunity to win the pot with out worrying about the flush on the turn or the flush draw on the river. If your opponent goes over the top, then he's going over the top with high card value, so you're outs are more likely to be live. If he caps with high card value, then you can bluff the flush draw on the turn, which gives you "pseudo outs" to the hand. It's also very likely you've priced out the flush draw, or if the flush draw caps and X hits, you can bluff the flush draw off the hand with "high card" value.

OP,

Check raising with draws is cute H2H, but depending on the board, most of the time it's better to just CBet if you opened the hand from UTG to the Cutoff against the Button and consider whether or not you should double barrel the turn. The biggest advantage to this is that if the draw hits on the turn, it's difficult for your opponent to put you on it. If you bet, it encourages them to bluff the board. If you check, it encourages them to bet out. If you check call, then you can blocking bet bluff the river for value and to set up a re-raise or you can check to encourage them to do something stupid. If its a straight draw, you should be even more aggressive with it, because the odds of the opponent being on a flush draw are a lot higher when he's in position. If it's a flush draw, it actually makes sense for you to slow down when it hits, because that's what TPTK usually does in that position.

More often than not, you should be giving yourself a chance to win the pot with a draw immediately or at least by the turn if you're in position H2H. If you're forfeiting outs, then don't let them buy cards or give them free cards. Most importantly, combine your drawing and your set lines, because people will fold to your draws and pay off your sets more often.
C/Raising is texture and seat dependent, you have to really think about your lines when you do this.

You lost me at "because the odds of the opponent being on a flush draw are a lot higher when he's in position," so nevermind.

[breathweapon]

People are more inclined to enter the pot in position with drawing hands than open the pot with drawing hands, so if some one is flat calling behind you, they're likely flat calling with a hand that doesn't rely on high card strength. The most common of these hands are suited hands with some high card strength, like AXs and 20s and from there suited connectors. When one opponent flat calls, he could be on either a drawing hand or a pocket pair, but as other opponents flat call behind the first caller, the likely hood of them calling with a drawing hand is greater because the EV of the hand increases for each player that entered the pot before them and each player that enters the pot behind them.

Additional pocket pairs could be calling for sets behind the first two flat calls, or the drawing hand could have been the first flat caller (anticipating others would flat call behind him) and the set could have been the second flat caller, but the odds of two pocket pairs calling to sets are a lot less compared to the odds of two cards being suited or connecting, and the conditions for flat calling with drawing hands are more preferable with 2+ players in the pot already.

There's an effect called the "Schooling Effect" where as the fish limp or flat call with bad hands, there collective bad plays and bad hands have a domino effect that turns there bad plays and bad hands into good plays and good hands against some one who is relying on high card hand strength by creating implied odds. For instance, if you open UTG with AJu, and 9 other players call, your AJu is garbage even if it hits the high card. If you had opened with JTs, and 9 other players called, you'd be in great shape if it hits the draw. Similarly, if some one opens UTG and 8 other players call, you'd rather have JTs to call with and fold AJu.

Since high card strength weakens for each person in the pot, some one who enters the pot with a high card strength hand in EP needs to re-raise to isolate UTG, secure his position and prevent other players from entering the pot. For instance, if I'm holding AQu in EP and facing an UTG raise, I'm not only re-raising for the folding equity, I'm re-raising to price out other hands from entering the pot behind me. The same can be said for JJ, I'm not only re-raising with the best of it, I'm making sure that I'm maintaining as much of the best of it as I can before the flop by driving out drawing hands and simplifying my decisions on the flop.

Getting back to straights, if you raise UTG with KQu, the button calls and the flop comes JhThX, it's more important to lead or re-raise the flop OOP than it is IP, because you want to take down the pot ASAP or see whether or not the opponent is on the superior draw. AXh or 54h etc. is in the buttons range there, and assuming the opponent is on the same or similar straight draw is wishful thinking. If you are on a draw, then you always have to consider whether or not the opponent is on a better draw, i.e straight vs flush, ignorant straight vs nut straight, baby flush vs big flush, big flush vs nut flush etc.

The principle works in the reverse to, if some one opens from the button against the blinds, their inclined to do it with hands as low as AXs, 20s or suited connectors etc. If you had flat called with KQ here, for whatever reason, then betting or check raising this flop becomes important, because it immediately tells you whether or not your up against high cards or a flush draw etc.

Basically, when your opponent is in position or in a multi-way pot with 2 to a flush on the board, you're either folding or playing aggressively to push out the better draw with your straight or determine whether or not your outs are good or bad. Even when your'e in position with the straight draw H2H, you want to play more aggressively, because 2 suited high cards aren't uncommon either.

I don't really know how else to explain it, if it doesn't make sense now, you'll figure it out around 3/6 or 5/10 when the LAGGs show up and you have to play thinking aggressive instead of tight aggressive. You can see it at the lowest limits to tho', where fish just limp in and create a "school" and the sharks come in with AXs behind them, and it's really common in any form of limit poker.

Edit: Replace odds with likely hood, I didn't mean to imply that some is mathematically more likely to be dealt a suited hand when he's in position, I meant some one is more inclined to play a hand because it's suited when he has position. You wouldn't necessarily open JTs UTG, but you'd probably call or open with JTs if you were on the button. Some hands are more situationally or positionally bound than others in ABC poker.