|
Just thinking about some straight-forward OOP spots.
$100 stacks, .5/1 blinds, 9-handed table
Raise to $4 with A Q from EP, get an LP caller.
Flop: Pot is $9.50, we have $96 behind. K 9 7 
We check, villain bets $8, making the pot $17.50 and he has $88 behind. If we raise to $20...
Betting $20 to win $17.50, and we need to win 53.33% of the time to immediately break even.
If villain calls, we have 8 outs to the nuts, and 1 out that pairs the board and gives us our flush. I'll ignore the possibly poisoned out for the moment. We are 17% to hit on the turn with just our 8 clean outs.
p = percent of time we win on the flop
0.17 = percent of time we hit when he calls
EV of winning on flop p*$17.50
EV of being called on flop and not hitting on turn (1-p)*$20*(1-0.17)
EV of being called on the flop and hitting on the turn (1-p)*$20*0.17
Total EV = 17.5p - (1-p)(20)(0.83) + (1-p)(20)(0.17)
= 17.5p - (16.6 - 16.6p) + (3.4 - 3.4p)
= 17.5p - 16.6 + 16.6p + 3.4 - 3.4p
= 30.7p - 13.2
And the break-even point for winning on the flop changes to 43.0% of the time when we consider our 8 outs to the nuts. Of course we may get 3-bet on the flop, but our aces and the 9 might also be outs to sort of counter-balance that.
|