What do you do here?

[Big-EZ]

Alright $1/$2 home game. Pretty serious game. We are 8 handed at this point and the pot I am talking about involves me and one other player. Here is some history on the other player...

Very tight pre-flop and then gets aggressive post-flop. Knows the game well but will take a gamble and check something big with a flush or straight draw out their. He is known for making his enourmous re-raises with big hands like AA, KK, and QQ. However I have layed down AK to him pre-flop to him after he re-popped huge only for him to turn over AQ. That hand was actually mentioned a bit earlier.

So to the action. All folds to me.

I make it $12 to go two from the button with As Ks. He looks down and pops it up to $30 from the button. I think and really want to lay it down because I know if I miss I lose a big pot and if I hit I still might have to lay it down. I decide to see a flop and hope for a good flop.

Flop---Qh Kc 3d

I didnt like this flop. I check into him and then he checks right behind. Now I'm thinking its either AA, QQ, JJ, or maybe he tried to pull something on me again wiht AQ.

Next card is a low brick and I decide to check into him again (dumb). He makes it $50. I think and fold.

He claims to have had JJ but I'm not too sold.

What mistakes did I make here and what would you do?

[Big-EZ]

BTW stacks are....

After $100 original buy ins

Me- $232 to start
Him- $188 to start (He was in for $180)

[Ash256]

Could easily have been AQ or JJ.. I like the way you realised what his range was, but, yeah, AQ or JJ is in his range, therefore I feel you should've got to a showdown as cheaply as possible.

[AHiltz]

You underrep your hand, he fires at the turn and you fold?

How big are the stacks here?

[Big-EZ]

Stacks were in the 2nd post.

The reason I played it so weak is because 85% of the time he makes that play its a big pocket pair. After the check on the flop I thought for sure it had to be 3 Q's. To be honest if he would have bet something like $35 to $40 on the turn I'm probably in their. But when he threw out $50 I knew I was going to be looking at $75 to $100 on the river. With just one pair against him I'm not looking to spend that kind of money.

[overflow]

Stacks were in the 2nd post.

The reason I played it so weak is because 85% of the time he makes that play its a big pocket pair. After the check on the flop I thought for sure it had to be 3 Q's. To be honest if he would have bet something like $35 to $40 on the turn I'm probably in their. But when he threw out $50 I knew I was going to be looking at $75 to $100 on the river. With just one pair against him I'm not looking to spend that kind of money.

How nitty is he, are we ahead and called often enough with enough fold equity to make an overshove +EV? Entirely possible. If he's not laying down AA on that board, the only thing that calls a shove and is ahead is AA, a set, or two pair. Pushing almost has to be +EV. Are you really putting him on AA, a set, or two pair here often enough to assume he's not going to fold if you shove?

After the turn bet there's about $110 in the pot (give or take), if you make him put his last $108 in, he's got to call $108 to win $218. If I were in his shoes how could I not think AA was beat here on the turn? If that's the case then he's only calling with a set and two pair, and it's just not that likely that he has either of those hands. I guess the question at that point would be, how often does he make that bet with less than overpair, a set, or two pair?

As played I bet $40-$45 on the flop and see if he plays back at me, I'm probably folding to a raise, and c/f'ing the turn if he flat calls and leads out big.

[rewfie40]

Like said earlier a check on the flop doesn't necessarily mean monster. It could be a check in fear that you have him beat. I'd call it down.

[overflow]

Let's run some numbers here:

There's currently $110 in the pot.

If you shove he's calling with 60% of his possible holdings (2 of which have you drawing dead). If the range you're putting him on is roughly 5 hands (KK is extremely unlikely, AA is probably unlikely too because you have AK and a K flopped).

so 3/5 times he folds, 2/5 times he calls, 1 of those 2 times you're drawing dead, the other you're drawing live to 2 outs for trips:

(0.6 * $110) + (-0.2 * $158) + (0.2 * 0.0435 * $326) + (-0.2* 0.9565 * $158) = $7

If we eliminate KK from his range, and assume he only calls all-in with QQ and AA it's actually a $7 +EV play.

If it's +EV with him calling with AA, imagine how +EV it is when he only calls you with QQ:

(0.8 * $110) + (-0.2 * $158) = $56.40

If he's willing to lay down AA here, you're making an absurdly bad play by not shoving. If you add AK to his range, and he's nitty enough to fold that to a shove it just gets better and better.

[Big-EZ]

Probably should have mentioned this in the 1st post. I know for a fact any bet I make here on that board he is calling with AA. He overvalues his aces and everyone knows it. He is willing to pay off knowing he had the best of it pre. So he is not folding AA here, I am sure of it.

I think its safe to rule out KK. So we look at AA or QQ. Could also be a funny play with JJ or AQ. Looking back I now realize this is how the hand should have played out....

I raise to $12.
He re-raises $30 more...$42 total.
I call.
Pot==$87
His stack==$146
My stack==$190

Flop===Qh Kc 3d

I bet $40...I should have went with a feeler bet here I think.

Then by the way he played it I am either getting a fold or raised.

I think that would have been the correct play. Agreed?

[overflow]

Yup, moral of the story:
Bad decisions in the past make for more difficult decisions in the future.

The better decisions you make on earlier streets the more and more often the correct turn and river play becomes self-evident (generally speaking).

In this particular case you played textbook preflop, and checking instead of betting, while saving you a cbet cost you the balance of the pot the times he folds.

A good mantra for this situation is "Playing for big pots on later streets by slowplaying vulnerable made hands increases variance drastically."

Although I suppose that if you had already given up on the pot on the flop, you saved yourself $40.

[LimpinAintEZ]

bet the flop - quit playing so scared - if he has you beat he'll let you know, but don't just check the flop....

when you have AK and the flop comes KQ3, that is exactly the flop you want - you don't have to lose your stack, but at least bet some here - you can't just imagine your up against the nuts every single hand - go ahead and fire -

[LimpinAintEZ]

I know for a fact any bet I make here on that board he is calling with AA. He overvalues his aces and everyone knows it.

how do you overvalue aces preflop or on this flop for that matter?

what is your image in his mind? You say you laid down AK and he showed you AQ - maybe he thinks that you can be pushed around unless you have an absolute monster -

[Big-EZ]

Not saying that he was overvaluing aces on this particular hand but he does it all the time and would on nealry any flop.

I definitley don't agree that he thinks I can be pushed around. They view me as an aggressive player because I like to play, I guess Daniel Negreanu type poker you could say. I feel like I can get away with playing garbage because I know how to stay out of trouble with them.

Anyway the hand where I layed down AK to his AQ takes some explaining. 1st of all his initials are KG. He is known for making big re-raises in a raise-call-call hand and waking up with a huge PP. It happens so much a bunch of the people we play with call it a "KG spot".

Now in that particular hand there was a UTG raise. I am in next position and call. He is in the next seat and pops huge. Now the action goes around but stops at 2 different players who really debate calling but end up laying it down. So now the UTG raiser sits and thinks for a long time but folds.

Now I was thinking I have AK but how many of my outs were just folded? I'm rarely ahead here. 90% of the time he is going to also have AK, AA, KK, or QQ. So best case scenario he has QQ. I have to think some of my outs were folded. So I fold.

It turns out the hands everyone was thinking about was 99, 10 10, & Ah Jh. (AJ was shortstacked).

So I dont think I can be viewed as a push over. I think he was probably using his image to his advantage because he knew I could have had a wide variety of hands in that spot.

[Pelion]

You have to fold preflop if you are folding that turn as played.

I probably call and bet out the flop but I dont think folding preflop is terrible given that the worst hand he has here is AQ and you are facing some nice reverse implied odds out of position.

[Big-EZ]

You have to fold preflop if you are folding that turn as played.

I probably call and bet out the flop but I dont think folding preflop is terrible given that the worst hand he has here is AQ and you are facing some nice reverse implied odds out of position.

Your absolutley right. I was completley ready to fold pre-flop but talked myself out of it. I was hoping I could hit the A or the spades rather then just the K. Or I was hoping an ace or king and 2 low cards so that he couldnt have hit a big set.

[jackvance]

Your absolutley right. I was completley ready to fold pre-flop but talked myself out of it. I was hoping I could hit the A or the spades rather then just the K. Or I was hoping an ace or king and 2 low cards so that he couldnt have hit a big set.

That kinda sucks too, he isn't paying you off if an overcard to his pp hits the board..

[Big-EZ]

New info on this hand. Talked to another player at the table they said that he showed him A5 off. Meaning this was a good bluff by him and I have been played.

Also i just remembered something that happened during the hand that almost triggered me to call... tell me if this should have any impact on my descision making.

After he bet the $50 he was left with around $100 give or take a couple bucks. I said. "Wow, how much more do you have?" and he responds ultra quick "Like $175!". Now I'm looking at his stack and I'm thinking theres not $175 there so I asked him to count it and he does and he says, "Oh my bad it's $98. I was thinking what I had before."

I think he said a high number so I wouldn't call or raise him. Should this talk effect my descsion making?

[BankItDrew]

How are you raising from the button preflop then checking into him on every street?