Quote Originally Posted by Big-EZ
Stacks were in the 2nd post.

The reason I played it so weak is because 85% of the time he makes that play its a big pocket pair. After the check on the flop I thought for sure it had to be 3 Q's. To be honest if he would have bet something like $35 to $40 on the turn I'm probably in their. But when he threw out $50 I knew I was going to be looking at $75 to $100 on the river. With just one pair against him I'm not looking to spend that kind of money.
How nitty is he, are we ahead and called often enough with enough fold equity to make an overshove +EV? Entirely possible. If he's not laying down AA on that board, the only thing that calls a shove and is ahead is AA, a set, or two pair. Pushing almost has to be +EV. Are you really putting him on AA, a set, or two pair here often enough to assume he's not going to fold if you shove?

After the turn bet there's about $110 in the pot (give or take), if you make him put his last $108 in, he's got to call $108 to win $218. If I were in his shoes how could I not think AA was beat here on the turn? If that's the case then he's only calling with a set and two pair, and it's just not that likely that he has either of those hands. I guess the question at that point would be, how often does he make that bet with less than overpair, a set, or two pair?

As played I bet $40-$45 on the flop and see if he plays back at me, I'm probably folding to a raise, and c/f'ing the turn if he flat calls and leads out big.