This is probably a dumb question...

[Renton]

You have 100 dollars and QQ under the gun. You raise to 4 and villain makes it 14 from the button. He also has 100 dollars.

You are absolutely certain that his threebetting range is precisely QQ+ AK.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

297,940,896 games 0.469 secs 635,268,434 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 40.2071 % 38.35% 01.86% { QQ }
Hand 2: 59.7929 % 57.93% 01.86% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }


If you make the call, you are in a shitty spot when you flop an overpair out of position. But when you hit a set, you win his stack a significant percentage of the time.

Is this really a fold to the 14 raise?

[Halv]

Universal truth: there are no dumb questions.

We must also take into account villains post-flop tendencies (will he shut down AK unimproved?) and our preflop FE against AK, KK and the other QQ.

(Note how I don't even attempt to answer the question.)

[Renton]

(will he shut down AK unimproved?)

irrelevant if he is smart enough to check AA/KK sometimes as well (hence, fucking you bigtime)

[Halv]

(will he shut down AK unimproved?)

irrelevant if he is smart enough to check AA/KK sometimes as well (hence, fucking you bigtime)

On the other hand this gives us 4 cards to hit our set sometimes. But the "shut down" issue is also more complex; how often does he float w/ AK if we bet flop? What if the flop checks through and we bet turn?

Someone come in here with the big math guns!

(but against this villain in this situation it sounds like you are really asking the old "is 10x implied odds enough to set hunt" question, right?)

[zenbitz]

Find a better spot!

Obviously, the reason this is hard is because it's close. The implied odds aren't really there.... How often does AK stack off on a Q94 flop?

note that the same flops that stack AK (KQX/AQX) are also set-over-sets losses for you. But are the pot odds there? You are a 3:2 dog and getting ~2:1.

Obv. if a A or K flops you fold. Even in the above set-over-set cases, you should probably play pretty fast (although if villain has KK on AQX flop, you are not winning much either.

I think on a blank flop you are just going to have to play. I think you can bet like 1/2 pot. Statistically, you are ahead vs. his range but you are not likely to win much.

[Renton]

I actually folded QQ to one threebet yesterday because thats what I thought his range was, and as I was clicking fold I felt dumb. But honestly, I think its the right play.

[sejje]

Find a better spot!

Or a better opponent. I fold there.

[zenbitz]

Find a better spot!

Obviously, the reason this is hard is because it's close. The implied odds aren't really there.... How often does AK stack off on a Q94 flop?

note that the same flops that stack AK (KQX/AQX) are also set-over-sets losses for you. But are the pot odds there? You are a 3:2 dog and getting ~2:1.

Obv. if a A or K flops you fold. Even in the above set-over-set cases, you should probably play pretty fast (although if villain has KK on AQX flop, you are not winning much either.

I think on a blank flop you are just going to have to play. I think you can bet like 1/2 pot. Statistically, you are ahead vs. his range but you are not likely to win much.

[IowaSkinsFan]

I think a fold is better here.

[Miffed22001]

qq/AK is the new AJ/KQ

[IowaSkinsFan]

qq/AK is the new AJ/KQ

Until people start reraising light more.