Noobie's First 5k Hands of NL10

I got my Dad interested in online poker more than a year ago. I have turned into a winning player. He's still a losing player - I think. He doesn't play one level of SnG's long enough or keep good enough records to really know himself, except by how often he rebuys, which I haven't asked about. I feel guilty getting him into poker and having him lose money. But I think he spends less on poker than he does on golf. He sucks at both games, but enjoys them. It's recreation. I told him to switch from SnG's to cash, start grinding at 10nl. Make a few bucks. He said, "Well, teach me how to play the micros, and I'll do it." We live in different towns, so I decided to write down some thoughts for a noobie. That's where this guide started. I have been working on this for four months. Revising. Editing. Planning to post it on FTR when it's good. Hoping Dad'll read it and apply it.

I have posted a Cliff Notes version that includes all the links and an outline in my operation thread.

Intro

I sucked at poker for a year because I played too many hands. I was that 40/25/6 maniac, just goofing off with a half-hobby, half-entertainment approach that specialized in spewing chips and burning bankroll. I lost $350 that first year. When I got serious in October 2007, began studying and got disciplined, the first thing I needed to do was tighten way up. Like sexually repressed teenage virgin tight. 10/8 tight. Most NLH noobies should start right there: Play 10% of your hands - or less. Dad staked me $100, and I started fresh. I read Aokrongly's 19-Hand Guide and committed to only playing those hands. I modified his approach to be more aggressive and positionally aware, which fit my game. But I practiced opening range discipline and learned two things:

1. Poker is hella fun when you're ahead - in hands and in bankroll.
2. Tight poker is safe, solid, profitable poker.

I was arrogant. I thought learning the basic mechanics would be easy: opening raises, 3bets, flop bets. And after a couple of thousand hands, it is easy. But I needed five thousand hands of super-tight, play-premium-cards-only poker to learn the deal. I won consistently and paid Dad back. Playing tight could help you win (more), too.

I realized AOK's guide was limited: ignored position, suited cards, effective stack sizes and a whole bunch of stuff. But I was winning, playing just 19 hands. I started to slowly add things to my game. I read Renton's three part guide. He writes mainly about FR, but I adapted his concepts both for my own style and for 6max. And here's an early lesson that will help you understand the spirit of these posts: think for yourself. I never actually followed AOK's 19-hand guide, except for playing only those hands. And I couldn't follow Renton's exactly, since I was mostly playing 6max. But the concepts are good poker concepts. Try to understand why they say what they say. Don't blindly obey some guide.

What will this "guide" do for you? It lays out a "plan of study." I'm a math professor, so I'm writing a "syllabus" for how to use FTR to improve your game, complete with suggested reading, HW assignments like posting HH's and replying to threads, and a focal point for each thousand hands you play. You'll go from a 19-hand agro-nit style to Renton's positionally aware, more open game. You'll have a solid range of hands that you'll play and some idea what to do on the flop. You'll be winning what Fnord calls "2 street bingo." But that's what 10nl is. I am posting the first 5k hands of this guide to see the reaction. I'll post another 5k later if it seems like a good idea. Or if Dad actually reads this, gets active at FTR, and wants to learn more.


Assumptions

1. You must practice bankroll management. Read Bankr0ll Management 101, Spoon's Bankr0ll Management Rant, and Spoon's Bankr0ll Managemet for People with Balls.

2. You must sign up for rakeback. Read FTR's official Rakeback post and info, Spoony's Importance of RB and Bonuses, and my own Holy Mother of God - Rake Sucks.

3. You need to get $300 to a big site, and spend another $55-85 on PokerTracker or Holdem Manager (link for HM).

4. You must track EVERY SINGLE HAND of poker you play.

5. Focus on one poker idea at a time.

Respected poker author and teacher Mike Caro tells his students to work on only one thing per session. Keep things simple. This guide suggests a series of "things to learn" starting with a tight-aggressive (TAGG) style based on AOkrongly's strategy guide and transitioning to a more positionally aware Tight Aggressive style as advocated by Renton Renton's 169 Hand NLHE Ring Strategy: Preflop (1st in a 3 part series). Both are better players than me, and I used their guides to learn how to beat this game in the post-UIEGA era. You can too.

Here's the key. What works for me best is to read lots of material, mostly on FTR, then use PokerTracker to analyze my game. I think about what's working well for me, and I do more of it. I find problem spots, and I do that stuff less. I've learned not to make too many changes at once. I just work on one or two things at a time, see how it goes. Here's an outline that, in hindsight, would have worked well. I've done all of these things, but not in any coherent order. If I had it to do over again, my initial 20,000 hands of poker would have resembled this guide. I learned to beat NL10 post-UIEGA in about 15k hands. By 20k, I was certain I was a winning player. By 40k, I had doubled my win rate over my 20k level. You can, too.

When I committed to grinding instead of playing around, I won. I'm just writing down the major lessons I've learned that have made me a money player at NL10. This guide won't likely make you a great NL50 player, or a great SnG/MTT player, or anything else. But it should put you in the realm of winning NL10 players.

If you're curious why someone like me who sucks at poker is "qualified" to write a Beginner's Guide, read this: Why listen to Robb's thoughts about poker?. If you want to know why I am writing this novel-length post, read this: Why I Write About Poker.

Good luck at the tables!


Hands 0 to 1,000 - Playing Tight-is-Right Poker

So let's talk about ABC poker. Discipline. Throw away all mediocre hands preflop. Autofold A9, QT, and 76s and all the rest of the crap you don't know how to play.

A = Aggressive. Bet, raise or fold. Don't call. If you can't fold, then raise. If you can't raise, then fold. But don't call.

B = Best Hand Preflop. Play EXTREMELY tight so that you're often ahead on the flop. Makes life MUCH easier.

C = Comfortable Playing for Stacks. But just A & B will do for the first 5k hands. Seriously.

I began with AOK's 19-Hand Guide, and played that tight. Over a month or six weeks, I moved toward Renton's guide, opening up in position and getting more aggressive. Your first assignment is play a thousand hands uber-tight, 19-hands tight. You'll add in more hands later. Trust me, just playing the top NLH 19 will make you profitable, even at 6max.

AOK's 19-Hand Guide is one of the most well known and controversial posts ever on FTR. Adherent's loved it and lived by it. Detractors excoriated it. It had problems, sure, mostly because it was so short and simple that it could only help the most clueless of beginner's. But it helped me. I tightened up, played only 19 hands, and learned the game. And started winning.

I never actually followed AOK's guide. It was too passive. But I still have to thank AOK. His guide got me playing tight enough to win. Here's my 21-hand modified starting guide, the one that first started winning me money at a 3 ptBB/100 rate at 10nl:

UTG: Open pp's, AK and AQs+.
UTG+1: Add AQ and AJs
CO: Add AJ, ATs, and KQ
BTN: Add A9s and KJ

Never limp. Open them all for raises, 15 hands UTG and 21 hands (AOK's 19 plus ATs and A9s) on the button. It worked for me. For full ring, I play the first 4 or 5 positions like 6-max UTG, then add hands toward the button as above. Open raise 22 - 88, even from EP.

Open each of these for a standard raise of 3.5 x BB (4x fine, too). If only limpers have entered the pot, bet right out, adding 1 BB per limper to your standard opening raise. When considering your first action after someone else has raised, fold the Broadway hands and aces that are AQ and worse, call with AK and all pp's QQ and less, and reraise with AA and KK. If your reraise with AA or KK is reraised, call all-in or shove all-in yourself. In the blinds, play the same hands as UTG, although you do get catapulted into hands with garbage when everyone limps and you're in the Big Blind.

The key to postflop play is aggression: bet, raise or fold. Have a good reason to call, and a plan for the rest of the hand. After the flop, bet at least two-thirds the pot every time you have at least a pair, except with pp's 88 and lower. With these hands, bet out when (a) there is only one villain, (b) when there is only one overcard to your pair, and (c) whenever you are last to act and everyone else has checked. With hands like AK, AQ, and KQ that have missed the flop, bet out at least two-thirds the pot whenever you have two overcards and only one opponent, or whenever 1 or 2 villains have checked and you're last to act.

Try to plan for the turn before betting the flop. Your basic plan for the flop is to bet at least two-thirds the pot (a) any time you connect with the flop, (b) any time everyone checks to you and you’re last to act - even with air, (c) any time you have a mid-high pair (99, TT, JJ, QQ) with only one overcard on the board, and (d) any time you have AK or AQs with 2 overcards to the board and – for the AQs – at least a 3 flush. Everything else we’re checking and folding. We’re folding anything worse than TPTK to a reraise, and we’re probably going broke with 2 pair or better if someone has a better hand.

This isn't supposed to be comprehensive, so I won't cover every situation. Bet on the flop and turn when you feel like you're ahead. Fold when you feel like you're behind. Learn to trust your reads, and don't donkey-call extra streets when you know you're beaten. With these starting hands, you'll find yourself ahead after most flops against most villains in most games. So usually you'll need to bet. Avoid calling. Try to raise or fold, using calls as a last resort. Check if you have to, but only if you're ready to fold to a bet. If you'd call a bet after checking, you're most likely better off simply betting yourself. Don't get cute when you hit a big hand (set or better). Bet it, and hope someone can call you. Always bet at least half the pot on your monsters.

This will have you playing 8.3% of all hands dealt, plus the occasional all-limp-to-the-BB hand. So you'll be a 10/8 ubernit, super-tight/aggressive. You'll have a chance to learn how to play the basic hands against different villains. Did I mention that, post flop, to always bet at least half the pot?

Good luck at the tables.


Assignments

HW: Post 3 hands in the Beginner's Forum, hands that gave you trouble, not AA or a flopped set.
Required Reading: Zook's Year One Discipline Post and Biondino's Some Thoughts for Beginners.
Think About This: Which hands make the most money at 10nl?
Suggested Reading: Where the $$ are at Micro NLH


Hands 1,000 to 2,000: Betting the Flop

There's this cool thing about poker. Your opponents can't see your cards until show down, and only if they pay your price. Scenario 1: Hero has AK, flop comes KT2 rainbow. This is perfect for Hero who leads right out with a two-thirds of the pot bet. This is a value bet. Hero is very likely to be ahead, and anyone who wants to see another card will not be getting the right pot odds for the call. Scenario 2: Hero has AK, flop comes QT2 rainbow. Hero usually should bet the second flop with a two-thirds of the pot bet, just like before. Villain knows (or should) that Hero plays TAGG poker, so AQ, KQ and QQ are pretty likely as a group. Villain needs to be able to be TPTK to continue since a big draw is difficult on this board. The flop bet in the 2nd scenario is called a Continuation Bet, or a cbet for short. And if they're not abused, cbets will take down a huge percentage of pots, certainly enough pots to pay for the times when some set farmer takes us to value town.

The key for betting the flop is to have your value bets and cbets be indistinguishable. To do that requires an understanding of the different amounts of value made hands have. TPTK is often the "flop nuts," and is almost always worth betting. But it's vulnerable. A single pair does often hold up for a win, but if we face consistent pressure, we're likely beat. Overpairs like KK on a T65 board also have a lot of value. Two pair hands are strong, but there's a lot of ways for two pair to lose. So these valuable but vulnerable hands will need to be bet hard on the flop, and then carefully thereafter. Sets and better are the opposite, though straights are often vulnerable to backdoor flushes. In general, sets or better are pretty likely to hold up, so we can play them more confidently, betting for value on 2 or 3 streets.

One of the major leaks for 10nl players is that they fire a PSB only when they're strong. When they're weak or on a draw, the bet half the pot or less. And they slow play sets and monsters. With betting patterns like this, we just step out of villain's way until we have a great hand and then stack him. Or we run over him when he bets weak. Don't do this.

It feels weird when you first try it, but you should bet your weak hands three-fourths pot or even full pot-sized bets (PSB). And bet your strong hands half to two-thirds pot. The difference is that you DON'T want your weak hands called down, so you bet big on the flop. You DO want action on value bets, so you make them smaller. But again, betting in this "backwards" way is just as obvious to someone paying attention. The key for a beginner is to pick a value bet / cbet size. I suggest two-thirds. Then your bets are impossible to tell apart.

Still, it's not optimal. We should generally be betting smaller when we want calls and bigger when we want folds. So we have to mix it up. Try something like the following chart explains. There's no perfect way to bet on the flop, and many times experienced players will bet more or less



The chart matches up various big hands with different kinds of cbets and bets and draws. The percentages for TPWK (top pair, weak kicker), weak pair and cbets indicate that we aren't betting these situations all the time. Learning when to bet these hands will come with experience. For now, your best protection is playing super-tight poker so that when you connect at all with the board, you're likely to be winning.

You should study pot odds, and we'll cover it later if I write all the parts I'm planning to for this guide. A key concept to understand, however, is that any hand with 9+ outs is probably worth felting (betting all-in) on the flop. Why? If your outs are solid, then you have nearly a 40% chance to improve. And you have fold equity, the chance that the other guy will fold something like TPTK instead calling for his entire stack. So you win often enough that, combined with the times everyone folds, you come out ahead. So you should be betting your big draws, any flush draw and any open-ended straight draw (OESD). You should also bet AJ on a T87 flop. The 3 aces are outs, plus you have the four 9's to make your gutshot. So 7 outs. And the J's might be outs, too, but it pays not to count on them. So we have 8 outs or so, and a better than 32% chance of hitting one of them by the river. Smaller draws, say 6 or 7 outs, are worth a bet at times, too. Overcards like AK on a J94 flop are usually outs, but most people think of betting here as a cbet. Betting your JJ on a KT4 flop is DEFINITELY a cbet. You probably don't have any outs except the two J's.

That's a lot to think about, but it's pretty simple, really. Bet vulnerable made hands three-fourths pot or more. Bet sets and monsters two-thirds or less. Bet your big draws two-thirds like your cbets. Watch your opponents carefully. Pounce on weakness when they show it. Duck their strength when they show. At these stakes, bets generally mean what they "say." For the turn and river, keep betting at least half the pot if you think you're still ahead. Avoid calling. Fold if you think you're beat. If you have to call, try to only call one street.

And please understand this final point: aggressive play on the flop will be mostly correct, but ONLY IF you play TIGHT preflop.

Good luck at the tables!


Assignments

HW: Post 2 hands in the Beginner's Forum and reply to at least 2 other threads.
Required Reading: Spoony's When to Cbet and When not to Cbet.
Think About This: Hero is dealt AJ, raises preflop from the BTN, flop comes Qxx rainbow. Single villain checks. What should Hero do? Why?
Suggested Reading: Newbie Circle of Death and Starting Over.


Hands 2,000 to 3,000: The Poker of Position.

The idea is now to exploit position by adding AT, A9, KJ and QJ to your playing range from the button. All other positions play we'll open and play as above. For these 4 hands, we're opening for a raise any time the action is unraised to us, including up to 2 limpers (fold to raises before we act. We'll make our standard opening raise, and we'll follow with a two-thirds pot-size cbet any time it's checked to us on the flop or any time we connect with the flop. From there, we fold if we're getting heat and haven't improved, and we continue to bet if we've connected solidly with the flop and think we're ahead. Here's how it works.

Having position means you are last to act in any given betting round. Being the last to act confers 3 main advantages:

1. You can read your opponent's bet for strength or weakness before committing chips
2. You can bluff at pots when it's checked to you.
3. You can check behind and get a free card.

Mathematically, an unpaired hand like AK connects with the flop about one-third of the time. Most 10nl hands don't go past the flop. Someone raises preflop, gets called and bets on the flop. Since the opponents knows 5 of 7 cards that will make up his final hand, he generally has to fold if he missed the flop. Betting last when your opponent has pretty obviously missed the flop lets you take down pots with almost any two cards (ATC). Since you're playing TAGG poker, you'll generally have some outs when you make this play. Don't just try running over the table from the BTN, yet, especially not with junk. But take some shots with cbets from position after you've raise preflop, and you'll begin to discover how vital position is.

When opponents bet out on the flop, calling should be your last option. If you hit the flop, you should generally be raising. If you missed, you should generally fold. Calling makes sense with some big draws and correct pot odds. But some bets are obviously weak, like a min-bet. Be careful, some folks try to be tricky with monsters and min-bet them. Note who these players are, and don't raise them. Don't even call them down without some hope of making a big hand.

Checking behind is great, especially with a draw. But the draw needs some deception, or you'll be too easily read for strength. I bet out on flush draws (9 outs) since the 3rd flush card really shuts down the action, but I might peel one off (check behind) with a well disguised straight draw. Example would be KJ on a T97 rainbow board (known as a double gut shot straight draw, or double gutter). I also check behind (sometimes) with overcards, a big pair like QQ when an Ace hits the flop, or with a gutshot. It can often pay to take a free card and wait to see what develops. I also raise frequently in both situations I just outlined. Experience will soon be your guide.

Any of these 3 advantages, by themselves, would be well worth widening our range of playable hands. Together, they create more poker power than the actual cards we hold. Doyle Brunson put it this way in his original Super System book (approximate quote): "If I could play the button every hand, I could beat most any poker player WITHOUT LOOKING AT MY CARDS."

In these thousand hands, focus on position and how much it matters. Realize how easy it is to play a hand like A9 from the BTN. If you don't know how hard it is to play A9 from UTG and have some money to burn, try it a dozen times. Weak aces are the poster children for positional poker. They play easy from the BTN and impossible from UTG. Also realize that these junkier hands are best when they can pick up uncontested pots early in the hand, either preflop or with a well-timed and sizable cbet. They can lose lots of chips pretty easily, so in general avoid playing big pots with them, and give up on the turn/river if you opponent won't fold.

In the next several 1k hand groups, we'll add even more hands to your BTN range and a few to your cutoff (CO) range. The goal is to get pretty close to Renton's guide, but to do it incrementally so you have time to adjust to each new group of hands we add. Each type plays differently. I've chosen to start you off with big cards hands which have enough high card value to be worth a cbet in most situations. We'll add suited Ace-small, suited connectors (sc's), suited 1-gappers, Ace-small and some weaker Kings. But trust me, you should be willing to play at least 1k hands with your expanded range before adding more. Focus on how these hands play on the flop and in contested pots. Learn when to lay them down, and when to move in.

Assignments

HW: Go to the Beginner's Digest and pick an article to read that will help you with one of your biggest leaks.
Range: Add AT, A9, KJ and QJ to your BTN range - raise them if it's unraised to you, fold them to preflop raises.
Required Reading: Spoony's Blind Stealing 101 and Renton's 169-Hand SS NLHE Ring Strategy, Part I of III.
Think About This: Two villains, one is LAGG (40/25/4), one is Loose-passive (40/4/1.2). Both have 120bb stacks. If you have to choose, which one do you want on your LEFT, and why?
Suggested Reading: Les Worm's Thoughts for Beginners and Pyroxene's You cannot make someone fold.


Hands 3,000 to 4,000: Reads and Profiles

Our opponents fall into four general categories, Loose-Passive, Loose-Aggressive (LAGG), Tight-Passive and Tight-Aggressive (TAGG). Most FTR folks suggest Hero play TAGG poker. In villains, we like both Loose categories though for different reasons, and Tight-Passives (also known as weak-tight) don't give us much trouble. At some point, you'll have to learn to deal with other TAGG's.

Tight or Loose refers to the hands they play preflop. Tight players generally play about 10% of their hands, or less (15% or less at 6max). Loose players tend to play more than 20% of their hands (30% or more at 6max). Aggressive vs. passive means how often opponents bet or raise compared to how often they call. The formula for Aggression Factor (AF) is:

AF = ( Bets + Raises) / Calls

We don't need to calculate it. Just know this. Having an AF of 2 (twice as many bets/raises as calls) is a reasonable breaking point. AF's > 2 are generally aggressive, and AF's < 2 are generally passive.

You can use a HUD to gather this information precisely, or you can do the analogue "note taking" version. Simply mark on a piece of paper during the first 30 hands while you're at the table which villains open and how they play postflop. Mark when they limp or call preflop, and mark when they bet/raise or call postflop. If a villain bets or raises about twice as often as he calls (AF = 2), think of that as "honest" or neutral aggression, betting good hands and folding bad hands. Villains who bet or raise three times more often than calling (or more, AF > 3), they are aggressive and are often firing cbets, bluffs or semi-bluffs. Villains who bet or raise about as often as they call are passive (AF ~ 1), typically calling stations who chase bad hands and don't bet their good hands often enough.

Once you have a read, here are some general suggestions for attacking these players.

Loose-Passive. Keep you're opening range tight, and value bet big. Avoid cbetting and semi-bluffing with marginal holdings. This player doesn't bet too much and will give you free looks at the next street. When he bets out, watch out. He probably has something.

Loose-Aggressive. In position, this player will value bet your hands for you. Don't be afraid to call his bets and rr with solid made hands liks TPTK. Out of position, fire your own cbets and semi-bluffs relentlessly. Aggressive players rarely call. They will rr with a hand and fold with air. If they rr, you're likely beat (unless he's a total maniac - use your poker brain, here). When they call - watch out! Could be a monster or a big draw. But they will fold a good bit and wait for a better spot to attack when you bet right out. When you have a hand oop, generally bet right out. Sometimes, you can check to him and let him bet a big hand for you, but you run a risk any time you slow play. Make sure it's a good hand and that villain is likely to fire a bet (AF > 4).

Tight-Aggressive. Not much of a problem. Just duck his action unless you have something. Set farming is perfect here, in position or out. Wait to play a great hand for stacks. Attack any sign of weakness when in position. These players generally bet right out on the flop when they hit their hands.

Tight-Passive. Attack, attack, attack. You will find these players play like scare money, and big raises will drive them off all but the best hands postflop. When they bet or rr, watch out. When they call, they generally have a medium strength they're afraid of losing money with.

If I ever get around to making another one of these guides, it will focus more on HUD reads, cbetting, and more specific types of players. Right now, learn to profile villains and place them in these 4 main categories. Learn to adjust your play a little bit, depending on who's in the hand with you. Always have a plan for the hand, starting preflop, thinking about how the hand might play out on the flop and turn if various villains decide to get involved.

Remember that you still need to bet or raise with goods and fold bad ones. The alterations for various players shouldn't stray too far from your TAGG ABC game.

Good luck at the tables!


Assignments

HW: Post 5 HH's, focusing on exploiting position. Learn to use FTR site search (try a keyword search for "rant" - the hits will probably be entertaining).
Range: Add Axs to your BTN range - raise them if it's unraised to you, fold them to preflop raises. Consider limping behind 2+ limpers.
Required Reading: Spoony's Raising Behind Limpers and Renton's 169 Hand SS NLHE Ring Strategy Guide, Part II.
Think About This Name 3 hands that villains at 10nl overplay. How can those overplays be diagnosed and exploited?
Suggested Reading: IowaSkinsFan (ISF) Backwords Learning Theory of Poker, complete with links to two more articles he wrote, which are suggested reading, too.


Hands 4,000 to 5,000 Pot Odds and Implied Odds.

Estimating implied odds is difficult, an art not a science. But implied odds are the heart of NLH. Exploiting them when we're drawing to a big hand, and denying them to opponents when they're likely drawing to a big hand (known as reverse implied odds).

Example. Hero has 98s and raises from the BTN, gets a limp/call from MP. Flop is T72 rainbow, but with a backdoor flush draw. Villain bets out half of the $2 pot. Hero is getting 3 to 1 pot odds since he must call $1 for a chance to win $3. If his odds of hitting his hand are 25% or more, he has the correct pot odds to call. Hero has 8 straight outs plus 1 to 1.5 flush outs. So 9 outs. Using the Rule of 2 and 4, he sees that he has 2 x 9 = 18% chance of hitting his draw on the turn. So he doesn't have the correct pot odds. But he's got a well-disguised hand if the straight hits. As long as the villain will call a bet of $1.56 more when Hero hits his hand, Hero has the correct implied odds to make this call.

Key Ideas:

1. Hero has bigger implied odds with straight draws than flush draws since 3 flush cards on the board generally shuts down the action.
2. Passive villains offer better implied odds than agro villains do.
3. Tight players often stack off too often with AA or KK overpairs, having waited forever "for a hand."
4. Hero must count outs correctly (i.e. discount straight draws when flush draws exist, watch out for paired boards, etc).
5. The more villain has bet, the more likely he is to keep betting and offer good implied odds.

This get slightly messy when Hero bets first on the flop with a draw, but in a good way. Hero adds fold equity (FE) to his chances of winning. Suppose in the example above, villain checks to Hero who raises 3/4's of the pot, or $1.50. If villain folds half of the time, that's 50% fold equity. So Hero still has his 18% of improving (about 4.5 to 1), and he only has to try to draw out when villain actually calls. If villain raises, then Hero's back to calculating implied odds. Hero is wagering $1.50 to win $2.00 half the time plus hits hand almost 20% of the time villain calls. These two situations combined obviously far outweigh the 40% of the time Hero bets $1.50, gets called on the flop and has to lay down a busted draw. Actually, it's a bit less than 40%, since villains will sometimes check the turn and give villain a second 20% shot at the nuts.

Thinking one common situation all the way through will help make most of the common scenarios easy to estimate. Same scenario as above examples. Hero is deciding whether to call a flop bet of 2/3's of the pot with 8 or 9 outs. For 8 outs, Hero has a 16% chance of hitting his outs with the next card (roughly 1/6, or 5 to 1 against). For every $1 Hero commits, he needs to get paid $5 to make it worth his while. If the pot is $3, and villain bet $2, then Hero will be committing $2. He'll need a $10 payoff. Since there's already $5 in the pot ($7 when Hero calls), he'll need to be able to bet $5 on the turn and/or river, and GET CALLED.

Hero has 8 outs, faces a $2 bet into a $3 pot (2/3's bet). Later in the hand, villain will have to bet/call 2.5 x the amount he just bet to offer the correct implied odds, or $5. Knowing this, you can quickly estimate other situations.

If you have fewer outs, say 6, you'll need villain to bet/call 4.5 x more, or $9.

If you have more outs, say 10, you'll need villain to bet/call 1.5 x more, or $3.

If the bet is bigger, say 3/4's, you'll need villain to bet/call 3 x more.

If the bet is smaller, say 1/2, you'll need villain to bet/call 2 more.


If this math is beyond you, this will be something you'll need to work on to be a solid NLH player. You can read Pot Odds vs. Percentage Change to Win to help learn the mathematics. There are links in the assignments section to help you.

It's also important to deny implied odds to opponents. We should often be willing to stack off, but if we stack off on every overpair and TPTK, we'll be giving villains their needed implied odds to call us with a lot of draws. This simply comes down to reading the game which will come with experience. But the concept is simple. Get villains to stack off more when I hit my draws than I do when they hit theirs.

Finally, the idea of set odds is so vital that it gets its own name, despite simply being an implied odds concept. Example: Villain raises from EP 4xBB, and Hero has 22 on the BTN. Ignoring the blinds for second 'cuz they don't make much of difference anyway, Hero should fold unless both Hero and Villain have at least $6 left in their stacks. Why? Mathematical facts dictate that Hero will flop a set once every 8.5 times he call here (7.5 to 1 odds against). Common wisdom is to double that 7.5 to 15 thinking that villain won't stack off every time Hero hits the set. Sure, Hero will win some small pots, but he'll have to fold a lot of times when he misses. So most FTR guys suggest 15x set odds before making the call. At 10nl, this is fine. At 25nl and higher, a 20x set odds rule is better. Villains there simply don't stack off with TPWK very often like they do at 10nl.

Also remember that unless all the active players are very deep stacked (140bb's+), it's rare that Hero is going to have the set odds to play 22 - 88 in a 3bet pot, even when Hero was first to raise. But it happens, especially when villains min-raise, so you need to be able to recognize effective stack size and quickly determine your set odds. Again, at 10nl, 15x is probably OK, as long as you're not up against an extremely nitty villain.

Good luck at the tables!


Assignments

HW: Go to the NLH Strategy Forum. Read 5 threads, and reply to at least 2. Post 2 HH's somewhere.
Range: Add all sooted broadways to your BTN range, and add AT, A9, KJ and QJ to your CO range. Raise 'em all up in unraised pots and follow with cbets when it's checked to you. Fold to preflop raises ahead of you or rr's behind you. Don't limp them - if you can't raise 'em, fold 'em.
[b]Required Reading: and Part III.
Think About This: Two villains, one is LAGG (40/25/4), one is Loose-passive (40/4/1.2). Both have 120bb stacks. If you have to choose, which one do you want on your LEFT, and why?
Suggested Reading: Da Goat's Table Selection and Pyroxene's Improve your chance of winning your next online session.

Extra reading for those who don't yet understand pot odds, implied odds and set odds:

FTR's Pot Odds Article
Spoony's Playing Big Drawing Hands
Read Lukie's post, 3rd from top in this thread, and follow from there. Discusses playing small pp's in midstakes games, but the concepts are pretty well explained, especially in Fnord's, Renton's, and Lukie's posts throughout thread. At the end, thread hits implied odds for sc's, and JefferyGB weighs in more great content.


Edit: Congrats if you got all the way through this. I hope it helps your game, or at least gives you a dozen new links to great FTR content you can read that will help. Remember to think for yourself. There are times to limp, times to call postflop and times to get into multiway pots. Just have a reason, think it through, and then post some HH's to see what others think. If you need to, spend more time on each topic than just 1k hands just spend less! I wrote this to my noobie-self (when I was just learning 10nl) and my Dad thinking of a Hero who would play 2 - 3 tables at a time. So 1k hands would take 4 - 5 hours. If you're playing more tables, maybe play 3k or 5k hands while working through each section.

Good luck at the tables!